Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.2.2013

Dec 192013

12/2/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (INDECISIVE)
Started @ 0.9079
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9089 – 2230:00 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9059 – 2230:33 (1 min)
)))-30 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9086 – 2232:17 (3 min)
)))27 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.9066 – 2238 (8 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected. This caused an indecisive reaction overall, with swings between the S1 Pivot on the short side and the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA on the long side. Fortunately, indecision is ideal for the Trap Trade, but the move was relatively tame. A trap bracket of 15-25 ticks would use the area below the S1 Pivot at about 0.9061 as the long entry and the OOD at 0.9096 as the short entry. The volatility started early, but use the 20/13 SMAs at 0.9079 as an anchor point. The initial burst long for only 10 ticks was too small and brief to allow an entry, but the fall to 0.9059 would have given an ideal long entry allowing up to 20+ ticks to be captured with a target just above the 100 SMA on the :33 bar. After that it reversed back to 0.9066 5 min later to the S1 Pivot, before rallying up to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot to continue the oscillating trend. After that it continued to oscillate around the 50/100 SMAs, then fell an hour after the report.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.3.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Dec 182013

12/3/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.7%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9128
1st Peak@ 0.9078 – 1931 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 0.9102 – 1931 (1 min)
24 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9038 – 2042 (72 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 0.9054 – 2113 (95 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1% but was offset with a small 0.1% previous upward revision. This caused a surprisingly large short reaction of 50 ticks initially that developed into a fan. It started just below the 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Pivot on the initial burst. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9111 with 12 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and chop violently around the S1 Mid Pivot. When you see the big swings, place a limit order around 0.9087, just below the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have easily filled early in the bar or late after the a pullback in the middle for about 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it stepped lower for about 20 ticks in the next 25 min, then a final drop of another 20 ticks about 45 min later to cross the S2 Mid Pivot. Then the reversal slowly recaptured 16 ticks to the 50 SMA in 23 min as volume dried up.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.4.2013

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Dec 012013

Caption for 11/4:
11/4/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE/REVERSE)
Started @ 0.9475
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9455 – 2230:28 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9466 – 2230:38 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9441 – 2232:14 (3 min)
)))25 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.9467 – 2245 (15 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected. This caused a bearish reaction overall, resulting in decisive short spike and follow on short trend. Not the ideal setup for a Trap Trade, but it would still offer a few ticks if played correctly. A trap bracket of 15-25 ticks would use the S2 Pivot at 0.9457 as the long entry and the R2 Mid Pivot at 0.9496 as the short entry. The reaction started late, about 16 sec into the :31 bar, then the long entry would have filled after 7 sec. After it retreated about 10 ticks and hovered, look to exit with about 8 ticks before it falls again. After the :31 bar it continued to fall to 0.9441 for a total drop of 34 ticks in 3 min as it eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot, then it reversed for 26 ticks in the next 12 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it drifted lower until the new day.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.3.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 012013

11/3/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9440
1st Peak @ 0.9466 – 1931 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9456 – 1943 (13 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9468 – 2004 (34 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9453 – 2034 (64 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.3%, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive long spike for 26 ticks. A second safe report is a good sign of a trend back to safety. The peak crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and no SMAs as the market was already trending upward. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9450 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9460 with 10 ticks when it hovered for 12 sec. After the :31 bar, it mostly remained between the HOD and the R2 Mid Pivot as it reversed for 10 ticks to the 20 SMA, then rebounded for 2 additonal ticks on the 2nd peak in 30 min. The final reversal gave 15 ticks back to the 100 SMA after another 30 min. Beyond that, it returned to trade between the HOD and the R2 Mid Pivot.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.22.2013

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Nov 302013

10/22/2013 Quarterly CPI (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9678
1st Peak@ 0.9716 – 2031 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.9697 – 2033 (3 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive, exceeding the forecast by 0.4%. This resulted in a quick choppy long spike of 38 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and fell short of the R2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB and the recommended limit order setting, you would have filled long at 0.9685 and avoided 12 ticks of slippage that would have been seen with stop orders. This is due to the retracement after the initial burst back to 0.9879. Look to exit at about 0.9710 for 25 ticks when it hovered for 9 sec between 0.9702 and 0.9716. If you waited you still could have captured about 10-15 ticks later in the bar. After the peak, it reversed for 19 ticks on the :33 bar, with 11 ticks of the retreat gained on the naked wick of the :31 bar. After that it traded sideways for about an hour above the R1 Pivot, but never could make a successful run at a 2nd peak.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.7.2013

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/7/2013 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9439
1st Peak @ 0.9406 – 1931 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.9442 – 2025 (55 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia’s major trading partners appears to have remained at around its long-term average rate. This caused a large short move that was slow and methodical. The short spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot for 33 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled short at 0.9436 with no slippage then ratcheted lower for 30 ticks just before the bar expired. Since this is a much larger reaction than we usually see, a conservative profit target of any value would have easily filled. If you waited, look for the S1 Pivot at about 0.9413 for 23 ticks. After the peak, it chopped between the low and just above the S1 Pivot for about 10 min, then climbed for a total of 36 ticks back to the HOD in the next 45 min. After that is pulled back to the 200 SMA, then traded sideways.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.3.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Nov 302013

9/3/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.5%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9043
1st Peak@ 0.9075 – 2131 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9066 – 2132 (2 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9098 – 2244 (74 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.9088 – 2305 (95 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a 0.1% previous downward revision. This caused a choppy long reaction that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then eventually turned into an Upward Fan. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9051 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak quickly then hover between 0.9062 and 0.9074 for the rest of the :31 bar. A target just above the R1 Pivot at .9070 would have filled for 19 ticks. After the 1st peak, it backed off 9 ticks, then slowly stepped higher to a final peak of 23 more ticks in the next 73 min, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 10 ticks back to the 50 SMA in about 20 min.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.5.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.51B
Actual: -0.28B
Previous Revision: -0.13B to -0.69B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9471
1st Peak @ 0.9489 – 1932 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9469 – 2004 (34 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9461 – 2054 (84 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded expectations, offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 18 tick long spike that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot, peaking on the :32 bar, then retreated back due to the resistance barrier. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 0.9476 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get about 10 ticks with an exit near the R1 Mid Pivot. After the initial spike, it reversed for 20 ticks in 30 min to the LOD and another 8 ticks in the next 50 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it bounced off of the S1 Mid Pivot as volume dried up.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 9.4.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 302013

9/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.10B
Actual: -0.77B
Previous Revision: -0.36B to 0.24B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9172
1st Peak @ 0.9156 – 2131 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9164 – 2132 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9152 – 2134 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.9184 – 2156 (26 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of expectations, along with a moderate downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 16 tick short spike that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, then retreated back due to the strong area of support. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 0.9166 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get 5-7 ticks with an exit at or just below the 200 SMA. After the initial spike, it reversed for 8 ticks on the :32 bar back to the 50 SMA, then fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. Then the support barrier caused a strong reversal of 32 ticks in the next 22 min to the R1 Pivot.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.5.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 302013

8/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.81B
Actual: 0.60B
Previous Revision: -0.16B to 0.51B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8895
1st Peak @ 0.8903 – 2131 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.8886 – 2131 (1 min)
-17 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of expectations, with a concurrent moderate downward revision to the previous report. We warned about the HPI report at the same time being potentially problematic as it was in May. Since it was positive, this caused offsetting news and indecision. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA, then spiked long to the R1 Pivot and reversed back down to about 4 ticks above the LOD. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 0.8898 with no slippage, then you would have been stopped out within 2 sec at 0.8891 with 2 ticks of slippage for a 7 tick loss. After the :31 bar, the market rallied for about 20 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 30 min on the HPI news. Fortunately we raised the risk warning and gave warning about the HPI report, so this should have been a disqualifier for most.

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