Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 9.3.2013

Sep 302013

9/3/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.8976
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.8989 – 0030:01 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.8973 – 0030:36 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Pullback to 0.8993 – 0031:06 (2 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9041 – 0114 (44 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.9023 – 0156 (86 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected 1 month after an expected cut of 25 BP, citing global growth running below average, but inflation well contained, and reasonable prospects of greater growth next year. This testimony was embraced by the market to cause a stable rally. The subtle moves initially would not have been large enough to trigger a trap trade bracket of 20 ticks as the market did not exceed 20 ticks from the appx anchor point of 0.8976 until the :33 bar. With the relatively tame volatility in the initial minute, cancel the trade and do not wait for it to fill. Also, when it does not go short in equal magnitude to the long move, the bias is bullish and not good for the Trap scenario. It turned into a FAN that resulted in 65 ticks attained in 44 min as it crossed the R3 Pivot, then the market sustained the rally and only reversed for 18 ticks in the next 40 min back to the 100 SMA.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 9.2.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 292013

Caption for 9/2:

9/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9011
Fake Spike @ 0.9017 – 2131 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8990 – 2131 (1 min)
21 ticks (from origin)

2nd Peak @ 0.8984 – 2138 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.8999 – 2149 (19 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8964 – 2217 (47 min)
47 ticks
Reversal to 0.8977 – 2229 (59 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.3%, with no previous report revision while accompanied by another lesser influential report that was also bearish. This caused a small bump long for 6 ticks, followed by the true short move of 21 ticks. This report used to be a tame and reliable opportunity, but since June it has been unsafe. The initial long move may have been noise, but the thin Asian trading session makes it hard to determine. The 1st peak crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the R2 Mid Pivot, before retreating to the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9016 with about 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 10 tick loss with no slippage as it fell. After the :01 bar, it continued to fall for a 2nd peak to 0.8984 on the :38 bar at the OOD. Then it reversed back to the 200 SMA for 15 ticks in 11 min, before falling for a final peak of 47 total ticks in about 30 min. After that it chopped sideways as volume dried up.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.4.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 292013

8/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8857
1st Peak @ 0.8883 – 2131 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8825 – 2131 (1 min)
-58 ticks

Pullback to 0.8841 – 2132 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8823 – 2140 (10 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.4%, with a small previous report upward revision caused an indecisive reaction. Due to the large long spike of 26 ticks, then rapid drop of 58 ticks with a good bearish disparity on the result, this is cause for concern. It rallied long to cross all 3 major SMAs (falling in a down trend) and nearly reach the OOD, then fell to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.8866 with about 5 ticks of slippage, then been stopped with a 16 tick loss including 6 ticks of slippage on the opposite entry as it was before the OCO could function. After the :01 bar, it oscillated above and below the S1 Pivot with a period of about 40 min. With June and July (not traded) also being indecisive, After this report we will be raising the risk rating to 3 for the foreseeable future.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 7.15.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/15/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9071
Fake spike to 0.9066 – 2131 (1 min)
5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.9111 – 2132 (2 min)
40 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9132 – 2201 (31 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 0.9114 – 2208 (38 min)
18 ticks

Notes: In a departure from the trend, the Minutes caused a small short spike of 5 ticks, then was decisively bullish for a large breakout that had no correlation to the Cash Rate report from 2 weeks ago. We recommended a Trap Trade with 7-10 tick offset and 10 tick stop on this report after the Cash Rate was initially indecisive. So with an anchor point of 0.9071, the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD at 0.9063 and the R1 Pivot at 0.9083 offered good positions. The short position at 0.9083 would have filled, then stopped you out at 0.9093 for -10 ticks 2 seconds later. It continued long into an Upward Fan stepping higher until the Final peak of 61 ticks in 31 min. After that it reversed 18 ticks, but hit the HOD for a triple top on two more occasions as the bullish move held.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 07.23.2013

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Aug 082013

7/23/2013 Quarterly CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9245
1st Peak@ 0.9201 – 2131 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.9270 – 2132 (2 min)
69 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9284 – 2138 (8 min)
83 ticks

Notes: This report was slightly negative, resulting in a quick short spike of 44 ticks that was slightly unsustainable as it hit its peak at 12 sec then backed off, leaving 43 ticks on the tail naked as it continued higher into the reversal. The spike crossed the S1 Pivot on the short move, the retreated back through the SMAs and struggled with the R1 Mid Pivot for a few min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9229 with 9 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it drop all the way to 0.9201 quickly and then back off. Due to the large move, the matching result, and the appearance of a retreat, close out as soon as possible. You could have captured 8-20 ticks. After the initial reversal, it gained another 14 ticks in the next 6 min, then backed off until the negative CNY Manufacturing report came out to drive the market lower at 2145.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 7.2.2013

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Aug 042013

7/2/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.75%
Actual: 2.75%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9173
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9187 – 0030:06 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.9159 – 0030:26 (1 min)
-28 ticks

Pullback to 0.9175 – 0030:52 (1 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9108 – 0103 (33 min)
67 ticks

Pullback to 0.9131 – 0131 (61 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected due to the surprise rate cut two months earlier, citing global growth running a bit below average this year, with reasonable prospects of a pick-up next year. Commodity prices have declined further but, overall, remain at high levels by historical standards. This caused a long move of 14 ticks followed by a 28 tick reversal, then a 16 tick pullback on the :31 bar. We recommended a trap trade with this report with a 20-25 tick offset. That would have been too large in this case as the 100 SMA or PP Pivot would have been a good anchor point around 0.9171. So anything over 15 ticks would not have filled. Cancel the order after 3 bars do not fill. After the initial indecision, the statement caused a bearish sentiment to prevail as it sold off for about 67 ticks in the next 30 min, eclipsing the S2 Mid Pivot, then it pulled back for 28 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 7.10.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Aug 042013

7/10/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.3K
Previous Revision: -1.8K to -0.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9177
1st Peak @ 0.9233 – 2131 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 0.9183 – 2140 (10 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9249 – 2307 (97 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 0.9220 – 2331 (121 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate increasing by 0.1%, offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous report caused a noisy, but safe spike of 56 ticks. It crossed the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot, went all the way up to 0.9233, then retreated, leaving 37 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.9189 with 4 ticks of slippage. A 40 tick or less profit target would have filled easily on the spike as it spent about 5 sec hovering near the top of the bar before falling. After the :31 bar, it chopped around the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA for about 40 min before gearing up for a slow developing 2nd peak that achieved another 16 ticks above the initial peak over 90 min after the report. Then it reversed for 29 ticks in about 25 min back to the 100 SMA.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 6.17.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 062013

6/17/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9483
1st Peak @ 0.9470 – 2131 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9494 – 2132 (2 min)
24 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9439 – 2226 (56 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.9463 – 2245 (75 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a short spike of 13 ticks that hit the LOD and then pulled back up. It was unsustainable and left all 13 ticks on the tail naked, settling where it started, then the :32 bar continued up to 0.9494 to eclipse the 200 SMA. The reversal was also unsustainable as it surrendered the gain then continued falling to step lower for nearly an hour for 31 more ticks, eventually conquering the S1 Mid Pivot. The final reversal reclaimed 24 ticks in about 20 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 2 ticks of slippage at about 0.9478, then had a brief opportunity to capture a handful of ticks before it reversed. The alternative recommendation to trap trade it would have been far more safe and profitable as we can count on a wide range on the first few bars. I used a 10 ticks offset to buy at 0.9473 on the :31 bar, then conservatively exited with 10 ticks, but 5-10 more ticks would have been easily captured.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jul 062013

6/12/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: -9.8K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 1.1K
Previous Revision: -5.1K to 45.0K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9438
1st Peak @ 0.9524 – 2132 (2 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 0.9428 – 2156 (26 min)
96 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1%, offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous report caused a noisy, but safe spike. Given the recent unsafe trend and upon seeing the volatility and wild swings about 20 sec before the :30 bar expired, the conservative play would be to disable the JOBB strategy via the control center tab. If you let it play out, you would been filled long at 0.9454 with 10 ticks of slippage. Then it appeared to hit a top about 2-4 sec into the bar and hovered between 0.9485 and 0.9495 for another 4 or so sec. After seeing the hovering and appearance of retreat, close out around 0.9480 with 25 or so ticks. The :31 bar retreated back to 0.9461, before rallying long to close near the top of the bar. Then the :32 bar gained another 20 ticks before the reversal took over, falling 96 ticks in 24 min for a fast and dramatic reversal. After that it popped up and traded sideways as volume dried up.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 092013

6/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.20B
Actual: 0.03B
Previous Revision: +0.25B to 0.56B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9485
1st Peak @ 0.9467 – 2131 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9502 – 2135 (5 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of expectations, but was offset by a moderate upward revision to the previous report. This caused a 18 tick short spike that crossed the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot near the origin and nearly reached the LOD. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 0.9480 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get up to 13 ticks if you used a profit target or closed exited when it hovered near the LOD. I used a 12 tick profit target that filled easily. After the initial spike, it reversed very quickly to the 200 SMA for 35 ticks in 4 min due to the strong offsetting bullish previous revision, then it backed off a little and traded sideways.

Older Entries Newer Entries