Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.24.12

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 242012

7/24/2012 Quarterly CPI (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE then UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0143
1st Peak@ 1.0165 / Reverse to 1.0125 – 1531 (1 min)
22 / -18 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0191 – 1739 (129 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.0165 – 1946 (256 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report was initially indecisive with only 0.1% offset from the forecast. This resulted in a quick rise of 22 ticks, followed by a reversal of 40 ticks which would have hit your stop loss after a few seconds with JOBB. In the first minute of the range chart, you can see the rapid swings. 90% of the action occurred in the first 3 seconds. In spite of the initial indecisive reaction, the bulls came out for the long term reaction when the positive reading sank in. The market slowly climbed to a Final peak of 48 ticks at 1.0191 over 2 hrs later. Then the reversal after the 2nd peak yielded only 26 ticks in 2 hrs.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.16.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 162012

7/16/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0225
1st Peak @ 1.0239 – 1531 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reverse to 1.0225 – 1535 (5 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Quick spike and reversal with little fanfare. The market went long initially for 14 ticks to the high of the day, but could not hold onto its gains as it retraced from the top of the wick to fall back to the origin on the next bar. No major SMAs were crossed as the market had rallied before the report, but the R2 Pivot weighed on the action at 1.0235. The market stayed locked in the same range for another hour, unable to escape until it broke out long for a few more ticks.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jul 112012

7/11/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -27.0K
Previous Revision: -11.1K to 27.8K
Rate Forecast: 5.2%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0178
1st Peak @ 1.0134 – 1534 (4 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0119 – 1556 (26 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 1.0139 – 1656 (86 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Very Strong negative report that fell short of the forecast with a sizeable downward revision to the previous strong report caused a healthy short spike. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0170 with 3-4 ticks of slippage, then had an easy opportunity to capture at least 20 ticks. All of the major SMAs were already above the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the PP and S1 Pivots on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the S2 Pivot. The reversal was only able to rebound for 20 ticks in 49 min. Then after testing the 1.0139 area 2 more times, it continued to step short for several hours to a low of 1.0040 as the dollar rallied overnight.

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 07.11.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jul 112012

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.04.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 042012

7/4/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: -0.51B
Actual: -0.29B
Previous Revision: +0.23B to -0.03B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0204
1st Peak @ 1.0216 – 1531 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0180 – 1557 (27 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast, but still a deficit, with a positive revision to the previous report. With the same overall result as the last report, this caused a longer developing indecisive reaction with a small long spike of 12 ticks followed by a large 36 tick reversal in 27 min. This also broke on the 4th of July Holiday for the US, so low volume occurred. The spike hit the PP Pivot, then the reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs, the S1 and S2 Pivots.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.03.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jul 032012

7/3/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.1%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0226
1st Peak @ 1.0255 – 1531 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.0234 – 1533 (3 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a large upward previous report revision. This caused a rapid long spike that would have filled your long JOBB entry at about 1.0238. With all the major SMAs lower than the price action, the only barrier to cross was the R1 Pivot about 1/3 of the way up the path of the :31 bar. It hit its apex at the R2 Pivot at 1.0255 only 4 sec into the :31 bar then retreated and hovered a few ticks lower until 10 sec then fell more. Given the bounce off of the R2 Pivot and inability to hold that level, closing out around 1.0251 would be a good play. The reversal came back to just above the R1 level at the :33 bar. Then it chopped sideways at the R1 Pivot for about 30 min before slowly dropping again.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.02.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jul 022012

7/2/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0203
1st Peak @ 1.0183 – 1832 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reverse to 1.0205 – 1833 (3 min)
22 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged after a sum of 75 BP rate cuts in the last two months citing better than expected hiring and the strength of the AUSSIE $ in the last 8 months to contain inflation. This matched traders’ expectations, so very little fireworks were seen on this report in comparison to the previous 2-3 reports. After the announcement was made, no move was made until 35 sec into the :31 bar. With JOBB, that would be cause to cancel the order. Had you stayed in and used a 7 tick buffer, you would have likely seen a short fill at 1.0195, just above the 200 SMA. I would move the stop loss to 3 ticks above the 200 SMA at 1.0197 and look for a handful of ticks. The spike fought through all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot near the origin. The reversal reclaimed all of the spike yield in 2 bars, then the market fell again but could not penetrate the 1.0183 area until about 4 hrs later.

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 07.02.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jul 022012

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 06.18.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jun 182012

6/18/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0047
1st Peak @ 1.0058 – 1531 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reverse to 1.0036 – 1535 (5 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Tame report reaction overall. With lighter than average volume, the market went long initially, but could not hold onto its gains as it retraced from the top of the wick to fall 22 ticks in a relatively short 5 min to the area where the 200 and 100 SMAs were converging. With the recent RBA decisions to cut rates 50 BP at the last meeting, then 25 more BP at the this meeting, the volatility seen on the RBA decision carries over into the minutes reflected in the choppiness and initial move that could not hold.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 072012

6/7/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: -0.92B
Actual: -0.20B
Previous Revision: +0.31B to -1.28B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9860
1st Peak @ 0.9849 / Reverse to 0.9867 – 1531 (1 min)
-11 ticks / 7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9843 – 1541 (11 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9863 – 1551 (21 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast, but still a deficit, with a positive revision to the previous report. This caused indecision resulting in a short move of 11 ticks then a quick reversal for 7 ticks. After the double wicker 31 bar, it shorted for 17 ticks then reversed for 20 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short, then stopped out a few seconds later on the reversal on the 31 bar.

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