Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 06.06.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jun 062012

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 06.05.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 052012

6/5/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.6%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9765
1st Peak@ 0.9820 – 1531 (1 min)
55 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9851 – 1734 (124 min)
86 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 0.9816 – 1955 (265 min)
35 ticks (multiple bottom)

Notes: Report was very strongly positive coupled with a decent previous upward revision. This caused a large spike of 55 ticks, with a follow on 2nd peak about 20 ticks higher 25 min after the report, a final peak of 86 ticks (31 higher) about 2 hrs after the report, and then a reversal of 35 ticks almost 4.5 hrs after the report.. The initial spike crossed only the 50 SMA and the R3 Pivot. The market used the 50 and 100 SMAs mostly as support until about 3 hrs after the report when the reversal took hold. Then it crossed all three SMAs to find strong support 2 ticks above the R3 Pivot. As this was a very strong report, the market rallied over a long period of time and the bears were relegated to the sidelines until 3 hrs after the report.

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 06.05.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 052012

6A 06 12 (2 Range) 06.04.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jun 042012

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 06.04.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jun 042012

6/4/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9720
1st Peak @ 0.9769 – 1831 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.9748 – 1831 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9779 – 1833 (3 min)
59 ticks

Reverse to 0.9744 – 1841 (11 min)
35 ticks

Notes: With the Economic crisis in the Euro-zone and the poor US Job #s out the previous week, the RBA felt compelled to cut rates another 25 BP. This was the more likely scenario and the midpoint of leaving rates unchanged or cutting another 50 BP. The market shorted about 30 ticks on the :30 bar prior to the report. JOBB would have triggered when the price was at 0.9720 and filled long around 0.9735 with slippage. Then you would have the opportunity to close out with about 20 ticks minimum. The up spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and teetered on the R2 Pivot. Then it went for a 2nd peak 10 ticks higher before reversing for 35 ticks back to the cluster of SMAs. Then the volume and volatility calmed down to settle into a slow rise pattern.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.29.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 292012

5/29/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.1%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9794
1st Peak @ 0.9758 – 1531 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.9778 – 1543 (13 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a rapid short spike that would have filled your short JOBB entry with higher than normal 7-8 ticks of slippage. With all the major SMAs higher than the price action, the only barrier to cross was the S1 Pivot about halfway down the path of the :31 bar. It held most of its drop after the :31 bar and had a another test of the low on the :33 bar for 1 more tick. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in 10 min to touch the 20 SMA.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.14.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 142012

5/14/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE then SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9931
1st Peak @ 0.9937 – 1531 (1 min) / Reverse to 0.9910 – 1532 (2 min)
6 ticks / -21 ticks

Reverse to 0.9937 – 1608 (38 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Initial indecisive reaction mirrored the trend of the market reaction to the Cash rate report 2 weeks prior. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the 6 tick spike, before it fell for 21 ticks. With no statistics this can be tricky to evaluate, but since it crossed all 3 SMAs on the spike upwards then retreated, it is likely not heading upward. I would move the stop up to the 13 SMA at 0.9928 or 0.9929 because if it cannot find support there, it will fall further. With a long fill at 0.9936, you are looking at loss of 8 ticks. The nadir of the spike was achieved on the :32 bar with 21 ticks, then the reversal took over 30 min to achieve a double top at 0.9937.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.09.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

May 092012

5/9/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: -4.8K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:15.5K
Previous Revision:-6.4K to 37.6K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual:4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0024
1st Peak @ 1.0060 – 1531 (1 min)
36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0083 – 1620 (50 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 1.0036 – 1736 (126 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Very Strong positive report that exceeded the forecast with a mild downward revision to the previous strong report (not surprising) causing a healthy spike upward. The 1531 candle rose 36 ticks crossing the 50 SMA near the origin and the R1 Pivot near the peak. The peak was achieved late in the candle at about 37 sec into the :31 candle after hovering for 20 sec between 1.0045 and 1.0055 (ideal and safe exit). After a quick and small pullback, it sought out a 2nd peak gradually rising for another 23 ticks in 50 minutes. The reversal yielded 47 ticks over an hour after the 2nd peak dipping below the 200 SMA.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.07.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 072012

5/7/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: -1.38B
Actual:-1.59B
Previous Revision:-0.27B to -0.75B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0148
1st Peak @ 1.0133 – 1531 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0125 – 1541 (11 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0139 – 1615 (45 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast, with a negative revision to the previous report. This caused a small spike downward of 15 ticks with a pullback. It then reclaimed the level of the initial spike on the :35 bar before falling to a 2nd peak of 23 ticks on the :41 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0142 with minimal slippage. You could get out safely on the initial spike with about 5 ticks, or wait it out for more in the following 10 minutes as this report is prone to peaking after the :01 candle and yielding a 2nd peak. If you stayed in, look for a 2nd peak of about 8 ticks lower than the initial spike which is routine. The reversal yielded 14 ticks to nick the S1 Pivot.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 05.06.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 062012

5/6/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9989
1st Peak @ 1.0037 – 1531 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.9999 – 1532 (2 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a rapid and unsustainable long spike. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and found resistance at the S1 Pivot. As this report broke on a Sunday evening, it was not recommended for trading. The light volume of trading is evident in the length of the spike and the subsequent fall along with the bar behavior before and after the report. If you had used JOBB, you would have likely seen an excess of 10 ticks of slippage and come away with only a few ticks as it fell quickly.

Older Entries Newer Entries