Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 03.08.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 082012

3/8/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 1.52B
Actual:-0.67B
Previous Revision:-0.38B to 1.33B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0631
1st Peak @ 1.0614 – 1431 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0607 – 1457 (27 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.0626 – 1508 (38 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with a strongly negative revision to the previous report. This caused a decent spike downward of 17 ticks with a pullback, then a 2nd peak of 24 ticks 27 minutes later. Notice the drop was losing its slope and the candles are shorter as the 2nd peak is approached. Good time to get out and /or enter to play the reversal. Reversal had two large candles and crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs before retracing.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 03.07.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 072012

6A 03 12 (1 MIn) 03.07.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 072012

3/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-15.4K
Previous Revision: -0.1K to 46.2K
Rate Forecast: 5.2%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0559
1st Peak @ 1.0521 – 1431 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 1.0562 – 1445 (15 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast with a negligible revision to the previous report causing a large spike downward. The 1431 candle spiked down about 17 ticks, then pulled back before ratcheting down to 1.0521 7 seconds later. Then it hovered for about 4 sec in the 1.0524 – 1.0526 area which is where to close out. Reversal happened quickly to erase the entire loss in 15 min hitting the 100 SMA and unable to cross.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 03.06.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 062012

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 03.06.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 062012

3/6/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0555
1st Peak@ 1.0505 – 1431 (1 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0495 – 1455 (25 min)
60 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0522 – 1511 (41 min)
27 ticks (3x top)

Notes: Report was strongly negative, with a decent previous downward revision. This caused a large spike of 50 ticks, with a follow on peak 10 ticks lower, and a relatively small reversal not even half of the magnitude of the 2nd peak . The initial spike crossed all three major SMAs, but as the 1st peak more than doubled the distance from the origin to the 200 SMA, we saw a 20 tick pullback, but nothing more as is continued downward. After seeing the double bottom at 1.0495, I would enter a long trade at about 1.0497 and exit at about 1.0519 when it crossed the 50 SMA.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 03.05.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Mar 052012

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 03.05.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Mar 052012

3/5/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: 4.25%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0633
1st Peak @ 1.0643 – 1731 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 1.0597 – 1739 / 1740 (9 /10 min)
46 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged as growth is forecast to be slower than normal, but fears of another downturn have been pacified. This caused a small 10 tick spike, followed by a large 46 tick reversal. If using JOBB, you would have seen an initial dull reaction, but stay with it as the report is still breaking. You would fill long after 30 sec, then see 5 ticks at the max 10 sec later before it retraced. I would close out with a small profit.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.28.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 282012

2/28/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0765
1st Peak @ 1.0790 – 1434 / 1437 (4/7 min)
25 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 1.0771 – 1446 (16 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast, with no previous report revision. Initially a dull reaction that ended up yielding a slow developing 25 ticks. This is such a large reacting report that a matching report that is positive still delivers 25 ticks. Even with the slow reaction, it had to cross the 50 SMA, but had little trouble doing so. Reversal just barely crossed the 50 SMA for 19 ticks.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.20.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Feb 202012

2/20/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0689
1st Peak @ 1.0666 – 1431 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reverse to 1.0702 – 1446 (16 min)
36 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Healthy spike with long tail on the 1431 candle. Look for 20-25 ticks on this trade. with no key SMA below to offer support, the S2 line is the only challenge. When the length of the 1431 candle approaches a length where the S2 line is about halfway in the middle, that is a good place to close. As all of the spike was in 1 candle, the reversal was larger than the spike.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.18.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Feb 182012

1/18/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-29.3K
Previous Revision: -1.2K to -7.5K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual:5.2%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0357
1st Peak @ 1.0307 – 1431 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.0343 – 1433 (3 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast with a meager negative revision to the previous report causing a large spike downward. However, it could not hang on to the bottom 19 ticks due to crossing the PP line, hitting the S1 line, and digesting the improvement to the rate despite nearly 30k jobs lost. The market shot down hitting the S1 line and bounced up and down 12 ticks for about 7 seconds before pulling back. Watching the range chart and seeing it repetitively hit the S1 line, I would close out in that area.

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