6A 03 12 (2 Range) 02.15.12

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 02.15.12
Feb 152012
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 02.15.12

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.15.12

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.15.12
Feb 152012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 021512

2/15/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.5K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:46.3K
Previous Revision:-6.3K to -35.6K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual:5.1%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0650
1st Peak @ 1.0707 – 1431 (1 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 1.0676 – 1443 (13 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast with a negative revision to the previous report causing a large spike upward. The 1431 candle had a big initial spike, retraced most of it, then ratcheted upward to 1.0707 at 18 sec, then pulled back 10 ticks and hovered for about 20 sec before rising 5 ticks to close out the candle. I would close out where it hovered, 10 ticks off the peak. Reversal was faster than normal gaining 31 ticks in 12 min.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.09.12

 RBA Monetary Policy  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.09.12
Feb 092012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.09.12

2/9/2011 Quarterly RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0724
1st Peak @ 1.0705 – 1432 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0703 – 1442 (12 min)

Reverse to 1.0723 – 1500 (30 min)
20 ticks

Notes: With the larger SMAs trending downward and not in the way of the downward spike, I would remain in this trade for the 2nd peak. After seeing the 1443 -1444 candles reverse, I would close out around 1.0707 on the 1444 candle.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 02.06.12

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 02.06.12
Feb 062012
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 02.06.12

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.06.12

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.06.12
Feb 062012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.06.12

2/6/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2330 EDT)
Forecast: 4.00%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0656
1st Peak @ 1.0763 – 1734 (4 min)
107 ticks

Reverse to 1.0723 – 1745 (15 min)
40 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged as two cuts late last year help the economy weather Europe’s debt crisis. Most economists had forecast a rate cut. This caused a large spike, followed by a small reversal since a rate cut had already been priced into the short term market. If using JOBB, you would have filled long. Keep an eye on the Range. There is more volume than usual, and the spike is larger. Still with the seesawing / ratcheting, the trend was strongly upward. The peak was an instantaneous spike of 12 ticks, then it hovered around 1.0734 (15 ticks off the peak) for about 15 sec. I would close out there. It did continue up for a 2nd peak on the 1734 candle, but this is not expected after 93 ticks on the first candle.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.05.12

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.05.12
Feb 052012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.05.12

2/5/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.1%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0683
1st Peak @ 1.0673 – 1431 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0693 – 1436 (2 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast, with a small previous report revision upward. The market took a breather on this one as the report broke on a Sunday severely limiting the reaction in volume and magnitude. Do not trade this report due to the Sunday release. No SMAs were crossed, but only 10 ticks were achieved on the spike and 20 on the reversal.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

 Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12
Feb 012012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

2/1/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 1.22B
Actual:1.71B
Previous Revision: -0.04B to 1.34B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0659
1st Peak @ 1.0674 – 1433 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0679 – 1439 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal: n/a (negligible)

Notes: Report exceeded forecast, but previous report revised strongly upward. Report broke at the same time as Monthly BLDG Approvals which slightly disappointed taking some of the momentum away from the spike. I would not trade this report with the BLDG Approval at the same time. Small reaction overall, especially considering no SMAs were crossed, so it should be unbridled.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.24.12

 Quarterly CPI  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.24.12
Jan 242012
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.24.12

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.24.12

 Quarterly CPI  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.24.12
Jan 242012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.24.12

1/24/2012 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0410
1st Peak@ 1.0422 / Reverse to 1.0385 – 1431 (1 min)
12 / -25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0454 – 1441 (11 min)
44 ticks

Reversal: negligible

Notes: Report was indecisive landing at 0.0%. This resulted in a quick pop up of 12 ticks, followed by a reversal which would have hit your stop loss after 2-3 seconds with JOBB. In spite of the indecisive reaction, the 2nd Peak was true to form achieving a relatively small 44 ticks in 11 minutes. No significant reversal after the 2nd peak.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.18.12

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.18.12
Jan 182012
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.18.12

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