-111411.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/14/2011 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0055
1st Peak @ 1.0084 – 1434 (4 min)
29 ticks
Reverse to 1.0069 – 1447 (17 min)
15 ticks (3x bottom)
Notes: Healthy 3 candle spike with long wick on the 1434 candle. Look for 20-25 ticks on the spike. Since the spike took 3+ candles to unfold, the reversal was smaller than the spike and did not quite make it to the 50 SMA.
-110911.jpg "Click to enlarge")
-110911.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/9/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.1K
Previous Revision:+2.1K to 22.5K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual:5.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9976
1st Peak @ 1.0000 / Retrace to 0.9960 – 1431 (1 min)
24 ticks / -16 ticks
Notes: Report exactly matched the forecast with a small negative revision to the previous report and drop in the rate causing indecision and volatility that was biased more upward due to the small bit of good news. The 1431 candle went up about 20 ticks then seesawed and fell 33 ticks in the first second. This would have hit your stop loss with JOBB. Also lower than normal trade volume due to job #s matching forecast.
-110711.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/7/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 3.02B
Actual:2.56B
Previous Revision:-0.15B to 2.95B
Spike / REtrace
Started @ 1.0210
1st Peak @ 1.0188 – 1436 (6 min)
22 ticks (2x bottom)
Reversal to 1.0203 – 1447 (17 min)
15 ticks (6x top)
Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with a small negative previous report revision. The 1431 candle crossed the 50 SMA downward. This restrained its momentum, but the report was negative enough so that it continued down after 2-3 minutes. This would be a tough one to call to stay in or get out after the 1431 candle. It hovered, but did not want to reverse yet. It did continue down another 13 ticks and bottomed out at 1436. The big red candle would be a good indication to get out as it is the same size as the 1431 candle.
-110311.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/3/2011 Quarterly RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0266
1st Peak @ 1.0257 – 1431 (1 min)
9 ticks
Reverse to 1.0272 – 1442 (12 min)
15 ticks
Notes: Since the first candle crossed the 100 SMA downward about halfway down and could not cross the 200 SMA, I would expect close out at the 200. It also hovered at the 200 toward the end of the 1431 candle. After a small 15 tick reversal, it dropped substantially for 41 ticks, but that would not be predictable.
-110211.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/2/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0090
1st Peak @ 1.0080 – 1431 (1 min)
10 ticks
Reversal to 1.0098 – 1432 (2 min)
18 ticks
Notes: Report fell short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. The market took a breather on this report for unknown reasons. With JOBB, you would have gotten in short with 1-2 ticks of profit before it retreated with a 2-3 ticks of loss and hovered. Good place to close out rather than getting greedy.
-103111.jpg "Click to enlarge")
-103111.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/31/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2330 EDT)
Forecast: 4.50%
Actual: 4.50%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0365
1st Peak @ 1.0315 – 1731 (1 min)
50 ticks
Reverse to 1.0351 – 1733 (2 min)
36 ticks
Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, effective 2 November 2011, matching predictions. This caused a healthy down spike, followed by an immediate reversal. If using JOBB, you would have filled short. Keep an eye on the Range. It fell 40 ticks and retraced giving it all back in the first 2 sec before ratcheting down 50 ticks. Unless you have slippage issues and are filled late, the 15 tick stop loss should not fill on the retrace. I would play out the ratchet effect as it continued until the end of the candle. With the long tail and the 1732 candle starting green, I would close out at about 1.0327 on the 1732 candle.
-102511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
-102511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/25/2011 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0263
1st Peak@ 1.0195 – 1431 (1 min)
68 ticks (2x bottom)
Reversal to 1.0227 – 1435 (5 min)
32 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0190 – 1535 (65 min)
73 ticks
Reversal to 1.0219 – 1610 (100 min)
29 ticks
Notes: Report matched expectations. This resulted in a decisive drop, but the particulars were abnormal for this report. This caused a healthy but smaller than normal spike, relatively large reversal, then a delayed and smaller 2nd peak nearly 1 hr later. Spike crossed all three SMAs on the down spike, but very close to the origin. I would wait for the 2nd peak at about 11 min as usual, but the reversal at 1434 was larger than normal. The double bottom at 1447 validates the wait for the 2nd peak on this report. After seeing the double bottom, I would trade the reversal and get out when it hit the 50 SMA at about 1.0215.