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9/6/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -0.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0304
1st Peak@ 1.0345 – 1532 (2 min)
41 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0351 – 1541 (11 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 1.0334 – 1556 (26 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report was positive, with a decent previous upward revision. This caused a healthy spike, with a follow on peak and a minimal reversal on the tail end. If using JOBB, you would have gotten in long immediately , then the retracement would not hit your stop loss before it continued to rise again.

9/5/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.75%
Actual: 4.75%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0276
1st Candle: Peak @ 1.0243 / Retrace to 1.0291 / Settle @ 10275 – 1831 (1 min)
-33 ticks / 48 ticks / -16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0302 – 1842 (12 min)
26 ticks (2x top)

Reverse to 1.0262 – 1905 (35 min)
40 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: The RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a ninth straight meeting, citing deteriorating growth prospects at home and abroad, matching predictions. This caused initial indecision, followed by a small spike, and larger reversal. If using JOBB, you would have filled short. Keep an eye on the Range chart after the big drop in the first 6 sec. It flattened for 1 sec and then started to rise. I would close at about 1.0253 after the range chart shows a clear reversal happening at 8 sec into the candle. When you see the first candle indecisive like that, it is good to watch the chart to see where the trend is going for another candle and then get in with the trend. The 1832 candle does did not show much direction, so wait until the 1833 to see a long trend develop and put in a buy around 1.0282. I would probably close at 1839 after 3-4 candles were flat, even though it continued up for a few more ticks.

8/31/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0441
1st Peak @ 1.0481 – 1534 (4 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0485 – 1546 (16 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 1.0466 – 1625 (55 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with no previous report revision. This delivered a healthy spike upward and a 2nd peak 4 ticks higher 12 min later (16 min). All three SMAs were crossed close to the origin of the spike, so definitely wait for a Peak on a later candle. Reversal slowly yielded 19 ticks and had very little difficulty crossing the 50 SMA.

8/15/2011 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0218
1st Peak @ 1.0194 – 1536 (6 min)
24 ticks

Reverse to 1.0224 – 1541 (11 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Normal 24 tick spike even though it took 6 candles to get there due to fighting through the 100 and 50 SMAs and the PP line. You can look for 20-25 ticks on the spike. The reversal outgained the spike, peaking just above the 200 SMA. Overall typical reaction.

8/4/2011 Quarterly RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0190
1st Peak @ 1.0161 – 1531 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reverse to 1.0222 – 1553 (2 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Since the first candle crossed the 200 SMA downward about 2/3 of the way down and the 100 / 50 SMAs higher up, I would expect a pullback and close out at the end of the 1531 candle. The strong reversal, and the delay of 15 min before it cleared the 50 /100 SMAs upward is not predictable.

8/2/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 2.22B
Actual:2.05B
Previous Revision:+0.37B to 2.70B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0461
1st Peak @ 1.0408 – 1531 (1 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0399 – 1542 (12 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 1.0417 – 1550 (20 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, but previous report revised strongly upward. Report broke at the same time as Monthly Retail Sales which largely disappointed causing most of the short momentum. I would trade this report as the Retail Sales report causes a large reaction. The 1531 candle ratcheted down and then hovered at 1.0408 for 12 sec. That is the cue to get out as it pulled back giving up 19 ticks. It did return for a 2nd peak for 9 more ticks, before reversing 18 ticks.

8/2/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0461
1st Peak @ 1.0408 – 1531 (1 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0399 – 1542 (12 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 1.0436 – 1619 (49 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. This delivered a large spike downward and a 2nd peak 9 ticks lower 12 min later. No SMAs were crossed, so definitely wait for the 2nd Peak. Reversal yielded 37 ticks and had very little difficulty crossing the 50 SMA.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 09.06.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.06.11

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 09.05.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.05.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.31.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.15.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.04.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.02.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.02.11

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 08.01.11