Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.14.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 302014

7/14/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9343 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9358 – 2130:12 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9350 – 2130:18 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9362 – 2131:57 (2 min)
)))12 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9345 – 2142 (12 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9336 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.9328 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9352 (just above the PP Pivot/200 SMA) / 0.9358 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a long reaction that rose 15 ticks initially after 12 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD, then back off for 8 ticks seconds later. Depending on the placement of the order, this would have filled your inner tier short entry at 0.9352 then your outer tier after about 30 sec into the bar at 0.9358. While the reversal was strong, it took longer than usual to develop. You may have tried to exit at or just below the R1 Pivot for an exit near breakeven. The better play would have been to at least wait for it to threaten the SMAs and PP Pivot. The :41 bar took a big dive down to the S1 Mid Pivot allowing up to 16-18 total ticks to be captured with an average short position of 0.9355. After that it pulled back to trade near the R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.21.2015

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Sep 042015

7/21/2015 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7397
Whipsaw between 0.7416 and 0.7380 – 2130:04 (1 min)
36 tick span

1st peak @ 0.7416 – 2133 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7369 – 2213 (43 min)
47 ticks

Notes: This report mildly fell short of the forecast with the CPI narrowly missing the forecast by 0.1% and the Trimmed Mean CPI matching the forecast. We saw a safe setup but a whipsaw spanning 35 ticks in the first 4 sec after the release. This would have resulted in 18 tick loss as the opposite bracket would have still been on the chart to serve as the stop loss at 14 ticks then it would have slipped about 4 ticks. After that it climbed for stable peak of 19 ticks in 3 min on the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 47 ticks in 40 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

Aug 242014

7/31/2014 Quarterly PPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: -0.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9274 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9267 – 2130:03 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9271 – 2130:15 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9262 – 2136 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.9267 – 2138 (8 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9264 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.9258 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9285 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.9290 (in between the R2/R2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in 0.8% worse than expected, causing a muted reaction. It fell only 7 ticks, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. With the Trap Trade setup, your inside long entry would have been missed by 3 ticks, so cancel order after 20 sec. It reversed quickly for 4 ticks then fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks after 5 more min. Then it reversed for 5 ticks in the next 2 min leading into the Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing report at 2145.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.3.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 252014

8/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9296
1st Peak @ 0.9309 – 2130:03 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9287 – 2130:04 (1 min)
-22 ticks

Pullback to 0.9302 – 2131:10 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9288 – 2238 (68 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.3%, with less impacting report ANZ Job Advertisements potentially disappointing to cause an indecisive reaction. We saw a long spike of 13 ticks that nearly reached the R1 Pivot then reversed 1 sec later to cross the 100 SMA then pull back to the origin area. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9304 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it reverse to hit your stop at 0.9292 for a 12 tick loss including 2 ticks of slippage. Then it pulled back to 0.9302 1 min later before reversing 13 ticks back to the 100 SMA. Then it pulled back again and traded between the 100 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.4.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 252014

8/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.00B
Actual: -1.68B
Previous Revision: -0.15B to -2.04B
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9301 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9307 – 2130:16 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9301 – 2135:18 (6 min)
)))-6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9294 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9286 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9308 (just above the OOD) / 0.9317 (on the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.32B, with a moderate downward previous report revision. This caused a small long spike of 6 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot then reached the OOD. This would have fallen just short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order with no fill. It took 5 min to reverse back to the origin as it reached the 100/50 SMAs. Then it traded sideways for a few min until the CNY HSBC Services report was released at 2145.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.5.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Aug 252014

8/5/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor point @ 0.9299 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9290 – 0030:14 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9302 – 0030:44 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

Pullback to 0.9291 – 0031:36 (2 min)
-11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.9317 – 0046 (16 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9289 (just below the LOD) / 0.9279 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9311 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.9319 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a short spike of 9 ticks that eclipsed the S1 Pivot and reached the LOD followed by a reversal of 12 ticks in the next 30 sec. You would have been your inner long entry just missed by 1 tick, so cancel the order as it reversed quickly. The reversal was shortly sustained and pulled back to the S1 Pivot midway through the :32 bar. After that it reversed strongly for a total of 26 ticks in the next 15 min.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.6.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Aug 292014

8/6/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 13.5K
Employment Change Actual: -0.3K
Previous Revision: -1.0K to 14.9K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 6.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9320
1st Peak @ 0.9286 – 2131:17 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.9294 – 2132 (2 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9259 – 2232 (62 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 0.9267 – 2247 (77 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing 13.8k less jobs created than the forecast with a negligible loss. This added with the a 0.4% rise in the rate and a small bearish revision to the previous reports to cause a short spike of 34 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot. Prior to the reaction at 2129:47, there was a premature short spike of about 23 ticks. This should have been a trigger to cancel the trade, but it would have been safe anyway. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled short at about 0.9306 with 6 ticks of slippage. It was very volatile in the first 16 sec, bouncing between 4 ticks of heat and 18 ticks of profit as it was contending with the S1 Mid and S1 Pivots. This is a scenario where a profit target works very well to your benefit. Otherwise, it settled down to trade below the S1 Pivot after the middle of the :31 bar allowing up to 20 ticks to be captured on the :31 or :32 bars. After a minor reversal, it turned into a fan as the gravity of the rate change was absorbed, capturing another 27 ticks in the next hour as it eclipsed the S2 Pivot and used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 15 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it traded sideways around the S2 Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.7.2014

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Aug 292014

8/7/2014 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9244
1st Peak @ 0.9224 – 2133:41 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.9236 – 2137 (7 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9216 – 2214 (44 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9233 – 2231 (61 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia’s major mining industry was revised slightly lower in the remaining portion of 2014 and 2015. This caused a short move that took most of 4 bars to achieve 20 ticks. The spike started on the 200 SMA and OOD then fell to eclipse the 100/50 SMAs and the S2/ S2 Mid Pivots. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled short at 0.9239 then initially hovered between breakeven and 4 ticks of profit until late in the :31 bar. Then it continued to fall as it conquered the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD for another 10 ticks. It reversed strongly for 12 ticks in 3 min back to the 13 SMA to allow a great short opportunity as it hit the 13 SMA for a 2nd peak trade. It fell for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in the next 37 min to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Targeting the S3 Mid Pivot would have allowed up to 16 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 17 min to the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot then traded sideways until the Chinese trade balance report at 2258.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.11.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Aug 292014

8/11/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 11
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9229
1st Peak @ 0.9243 – 2130:03 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.9234 – 2132 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9247 – 2142 (12 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9241 – 2146 (16 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a moderate 14 tick long spike that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the PP Pivot and OOD. The reaction was unfortunately quick and retreated after hitting the PP Pivot and OOD on top of each other. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.9237 with 4 ticks of slippage, then given you a brief profit of 6 ticks for 5 sec before retreating to 3 ticks in the red. Then it rebounded for the typical peak early in the :33 bar to allow 4-5 ticks to be captured (as advised in the alert). It spent about 10 min chopping between the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, then finally was able to climb for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 6 ticks in the next 4 min back to the PP Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.18.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 292014

8/18/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9309 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9302 – 2130:18 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9318 – 2132:44 (3 min)
)))16 ticks
—————-
Continued Reversal to 0.9324 – 2224 (54 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9301 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9293 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9318 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.9324 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 7 ticks initially after 18 sec to reach the S1 Mid Pivot, then reverse after several seconds for 16 ticks in the next 2.5 min. Depending on the placement of the order, the short spike would have just missed your order by 1 tick. Since it hovered for about 7 sec on the S1 Mid Pivot and the LOD it only 3 ticks lower, it would be a safe play to move your long entry up to .9303 manually. This is also safe due to the RBA statement producing a long reaction 2 weeks ago. Then it reversed to reach the R1 Pivot allowing after a brief struggle near the origin with all 3 Major SMAs and the OOD. Then it stepped higher for another 6 ticks in the next 51 min to reach the R2 Mid Pivot.

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