Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.2.2014

Sep 152014

9/2/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor point @ 0.9290 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9298 – 0030:01 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9283 – 0030:27 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9298 – 0030:58 (1 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.9279 – 0036 (6 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.9292 – 0050 (20 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9277 (just above the LOD) / 0.9268 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9303 (just below the 200 SMA / S4 Pivot) / 0.9311 (just above the S4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a long spike of 8 ticks that eclipsed the 100 SMA followed by a reversal of 15 ticks in the next 26 sec that crossed the 50 /20 SMAs. You would have seen your inner short entry missed by 4-5 ticks, so cancel the order as it reversed quickly. The reversal was shortly sustained and pulled back to a double top as the :31 bar was expiring. After that it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 5 min, then pulled back for 13 ticks in the next 14 min to the 100 SMA.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.2.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Sep 152014

9/2/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9275
1st Peak@ 0.9305 – 2130:01 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.9280 – 2132 (2 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9255 – 2151 (21 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 0.9273 – 2223 (53 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a long spike for 30 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD, but retreated quickly 22 ticks in a few sec. With JOBB and a 17 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.9295 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out 1 sec later at about 0.9285 with no slippage on the retracement. We shifted the bracket to a larger setting to avoid the premature spikes and also raised the risk t o”4″. Even then, we still saw a losing scenario here. After the peak, it reversed to 25 ticks in 1 min, then continued to fall another 25 ticks in the next 19 min to reach the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it pulled back for 18 ticks in 32 min to reach the 200 SMA.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.3.2014

Sep 182014

9/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.77B
Actual: -1.36B
Previous Revision: +0.12B to -1.56B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.9349 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9360 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9351 – 2130:59 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.9343 – 2143 (13 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.9350 – 2204 (34 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9329 (below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD)
Short entry – 0.9372 (in between the R3 Mid and R3 Pivots)

Notes: Retail Sales report matched the forecast with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.41B with a moderate upward previous report revision. The conflicting results caused a long spike of 11 ticks that surrendered 9 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. This would have fallen well short of the short entry at 20 ticks. It hovered between 0.9358 and 0.9360 for about 10 sec to allow a consolidation point above the R2 Pivot to manually move the short entry. If you did, you would have seen an opportunity to exit with 6-8 ticks as the :31 bar was expiring. It continued to reverse for another 8 ticks in the next 12 min to the 100 SMA. Then it pulled back 7 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot after another 21 min.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.8.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Sep 182014

9/8/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 8
Previous Revision: -1 to 10
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9285
1st Peak @ 0.9269 – 2130:42 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9281 – 2141 (11 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.9274 – 2147 (17 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts lower than last month with a 1 pt downward previous revision. This caused a 16 tick short spike that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot, and OOD while extending the LOD 2 ticks. The reaction fell 10 ticks quickly, but secured the remaining 6 ticks slowly, then hovered near the LOD. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.9279 with 2 ticks of slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with 8+ ticks near the LOD late in the :31 bar. Then it reversed 12 ticks in the next 10 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it fell 7 ticks in the next 6 min to the OOD and continued to oscillate around the SMAs for another 30 min before falling further on other news.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 9.15.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 072014

9/15/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Started @ 0.8982 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8972 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8988 – 2130:47 (1 min)
)))16 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8983 – 2130:56 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.8996 – 2140 (10 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 0.8983 – 2148 (18 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8974 (in between the PP Pivot and 200 SMA) / 0.8966 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8990 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.8998 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 11 ticks initially after 6 sec to briefly penetrate the PP Pivot, then reverse quickly for about 10 ticks then another 6 ticks after another 30 sec. This would have been a perfect and easy setup for the trap trade. Your inner long entry would have filled with 2 ticks to spare, then you would have seen instant profit as it pulled up to the area of the R1 Mid Pivot. As it normally reversed to the opposite side of the origin, move your stop up to secure a few ticks, then set a target near the R1 Pivot at 0.8988. This would have filled allowing up to 14 ticks to be captured after 47 sec, then again on the :33 bar and later as it kept climbing for another 8 ticks. After that it pulled back to the 50 SMA in 8 min for 13 ticks. Then it traded sideways.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 192014

9/30/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (BE EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8674 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8648 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-26 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8658 – 2130:33 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8635 – 2135 (5 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.8651 – 2145 (15 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8620 – 2216 (46 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.8634 – 2222 (52 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8663 – shift to 8661 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8653 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8686 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.8695 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin with no previous revision. This caused a rather decisive short spike of 26 ticks in 7 sec that fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot then retreat. Of note, the initial placement of the inner long entry should have been at 0.8663, but the downward drift of 3-4 ticks in the waning :30 bar should influence you to move the tier down 2-3 ticks. This would filled both long entries making an average entry at about 0.8658. Look to exit at breakeven when it reversed 10 ticks from the first peak and hovered for 10 sec midway through the :31 bar. With the behavior of the market and the result offset, look for the first opportunity to exit when it reverses and hovers. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to eclipse the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in 10 min to the 20 SMA before falling another 15 ticks to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot 31 min later. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 6 min then traded sideways near the LOD. In this situation, shorting a reversal top would be prudent the 2145 area colliding with the 20 SMA is a great setup with the S2 Pivot or lower target with patience.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.75B
Actual: -0.79B
Previous Revision: +0.28B to -1.08B
BLDG Permits
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 2.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8710 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8730 – 2130:16 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8717 – 2131:58 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8749 – 2157 (27 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.8732 – 2215 (45 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8695 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.8725 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast while the concurrent BLDG Permits report exceeded the forecast by a moderate margin to cause a long spike of 20 ticks initially that started on the 13 SMA and rose to the R2 Pivot. This would have filled your short entry with about 5 ticks to spare, then reversed to allow about 7 ticks to be captured after almost 2 min on the :32 bar as it returned to the R2 Mid Pivot. It chopped sideways near the R2 Mid Pivot for a few min before engaging in a long term rally over the next 1.5 -2 hrs. While the BLDG Permits was the catalyst for the rally, other market factors were the cause of the sustained rally.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.13.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Oct 252014

10/13/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
Previous Revision: -1 to 7
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8709
1st Peak @ 0.8697 – 2030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.8710 – 2032 (2 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.8699 – 2039 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.8705 – 2044 (14 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts lower than last month with a 1 pt downward previous revision. This caused a 12 tick short spike that started in between the 50 and 20 SMAs and fell to cross the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. The reaction fell 12 ticks immediately, then retreated 6 ticks but regained most of it later in the bar. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.8703 with 2 ticks of slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with 2-3 ticks on the S1 Pivot where it hovered in the middle of the :31 bar before reversing. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 1 bar back to the 50 SMA. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in the next 7 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 6 ticks in 5 min. After that it tested the S1 Pivot one more time then engaged in a long and slow developing long rally due to other market factors.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.6.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Oct 262014

10/6/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2330 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor point @ 0.8713 – shift to 0.8708 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8694 – 2330:26 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8703 – 2330:29 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8691 – 2330:33 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8698 – 2331:00 (2 min)
)))7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8682 – 2332 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8712 – 2342 (12 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.8696 – 2357 (27 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8710 – 0012 (42 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8695 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.8685 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8719 (just above the OOD) / 0.8729 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a muted response that stayed within 4 ticks of the anchor point until 25 sec into the :31 bar. Cancel the order after 20 sec with no impulse. It eventually fell for a peak of 14 ticks to cross the PP Pivot, then stepped lower to eventually reach the S1 Mid Pivot for 26 ticks after 2 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 10 min to the R1 mid Pivot. If this reaction would have started immediately and panned out quicker, it would have been a good outer tier fill allowing for about 22 ticks on 2 contracts to be captured. Still be safe and cancel with the slow development.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.20.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 262014

10/20/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Started @ 0.8754 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8745 – 2030:10 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8764 – 2030:34 (1 min)
)))19 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8752 – 2033 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.8760 – 2036 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8733 – 2129 (59 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8746 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8738 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.8761 (just above the R1 MidPivot / HOD) / 0.8768 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 9 ticks initially after 10 sec to briefly penetrate the S1 Mid Pivot / 50 SMA, then reverse quickly for about 19 ticks in 24 sec. This would have been a perfect and easy setup for the trap trade. Your inner long entry would have filled with 1 tick to spare, then you would have seen instant profit as it pulled up quickly and would have hit your inner short entry at 0.8761 for 15 ticks. It hovered for a few sec then pulled back 12 ticks in the next 2 min. After that it reversed 8 ticks in 3 min before it fell for a 2nd peak of 21 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot in 53 min.

Older Entries Newer Entries