Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.8.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Oct 262014

10/8/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 17.6K
Employment Change Actual: -29.7K
Previous Revision: -88.9K to 32.1K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 6.0%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8786
1st Peak @ 0.8750 – 2030:04 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.8773 – 2032 (2 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 0.8756 – 2035 (5 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.8816 – 2103 (33 min)
60 ticks

Notes: The Australia Bureau of Statistics changed the calculation formula for this report. This resulted in a disappointing report showing 47.3k less jobs created than the forecast with an abnormally large downward correction to the previous report. The rate was unchanged, while the previous rate was revised down 0.1%. This caused a 36 tick short spike that started just above the LOD and fell to cross the PP Pivot. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled short at about 0.8771 with 7 ticks of slippage. It fell quickly to peak after 4 seconds and hovered in a choppy manner below the PP Pivot for 12 seconds presenting a trigger to exit with about 15 ticks. After the peak it reversed 23 ticks in the next min, then pulled back 17 ticks in 4 min to cross the PP Pivot again. Then it reversed 60 ticks to cross the Major SMAs and reach the HOD in 28 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.21.2015

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Apr 222015

4/21/2015 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7697
1st Peak@ 0.7739 – 2130:35 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.7718 – 2133 (3 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7749 – 2152 (22 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 0.7733 – 2209 (39 min)
16 ticks

Notes: This report mildly exceeded the forecast with the CPI narrowly beating the forecast by 0.1% and the Trimmed Mean CPI matching the forecast. We saw a safe setup and large long spike in spite of the narrow deviation that rose 42 ticks in 35 sec. This would have filled your long entry at 0.7707 with 3 ticks of slippage, then continued to climb until it hovered around the R1 Pivot. Exit there to be safe with the small deviation with about 18 ticks. If you stayed in it would have worked in your favor as it jumped another 14 ticks then backed off to consolidate near 0.7733 to allow an exit with about 26 ticks. Then it fell 21 ticks in 2 min as it crossed the R1 Pivot before climbing for a final peak of 10 more ticks in 19 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.30.2014

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

Nov 182014

10/30/2014 Quarterly PPI (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.8794 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8791 – 2030:08 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8799 – 2032:18 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8787 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8779 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8801 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.8809 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast to cause minimal movement. After a :30 bar that bounced around quite a bit It fell only 3 ticks to the LOD, then reversed 8 ticks in the next 2 min to the 50 SMA. With the Trap Trade setup, your inside long entry would have been missed by 4 ticks, so cancel the order after 20 sec.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.3.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 232014

11/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.78B
Actual: -2.26B
Previous Revision: -0.22B to -1.01B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8662 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8684 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8672 – 1930:05 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8685 – 1931:03 (2 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8663 – 1932:13 (3 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.8620 – 1940 (10 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 0.8677 – 2031 (61 min)
57 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8643 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8680 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report strongly exceeded the forecast with no previous revision while the Trade Balance report fell short of the forecast by nearly 0.5B with a moderate downward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 3 sec that rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Pivot then retreat. This would have filled the short entry with about 4 ticks to spare, then quickly backed off and hovered for 6 sec allowing about 6 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back to hover between the fill point and the R1 Pivot and reversed again as the :32 bar started for 22 ticks into the :33 bar. This would have allowed up to 15 ticks to be captured in the vicinity of the SMAs and OOD. After that it continued to make a dramatic nose dive for another 43 ticks in the next 7 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 57 ticks in 51 min to the R1 Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.3.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Nov 232014

11/3/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.8671 – shift to 0.8708 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8662 – 2230:27 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8691 – 2230:50 (1 min)
)))29 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8678 – 2231:18 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8701 – 2235 (5 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 0.8686 – 2238 (8 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.8711 – 2246 (16 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8663 (just below the 200 SMA / OOD) / 0.8651 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8679 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8689 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a short move of 9 ticks after 27 sec that crossed the 200 SMA / OOD and reversed. Your inner long entry would have filled with 1 tick to spare then reversed quickly to allow about 25 ticks to be captured after 20 sec. Your inner short entry if left alone would have secured 16 ticks, but moving it above the HOD / R1 Pivot would have been prudent. After that it pulled back for 13 ticks in 28 sec to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 23 ticks in the next 3 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back to the R1 Pivot for 15 ticks in 3 min and reversed 25 ticks to the R2 Pivot in the next 8 min.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Nov 232014

11/5/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 20.3K
Employment Change Actual: 24.1K
Previous Revision: +6.0K to -23.7K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 6.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8563
1st Peak @ 0.8542 – 1930:04 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.8585 – 1931:02 (2 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8535 – 1942 (12 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.8551 – 1946 (16 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8530 – 1956 (26 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.8557 – 2011 (41 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report with 3.8k more jobs created than the forecast with a matching rate and a modest upward previous report revision, while the previous rate was revised down 0.1%. This caused a 21 tick short spike that started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled short at about 0.8550 with 5 ticks of slippage. It fell quickly, then chopped between 2 ticks of heat and 8 ticks of profit for 9 sec. Look to exit quickly with the hovering and nearly matching report between BE and 8 ticks. After the hovering it reversed 26 ticks in 6 sec, then another 17 ticks in about a minute as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks, but a complete polar swap. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 4 min to the OOD before falling for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks to the 200 SMA in 15 min.

6A 12-14 (1 Min)11.6.2014

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Nov 282014

11/6/2014 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8543
1st Peak @ 0.8525 – 1933 (3 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.8553 – 1947 (17 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 0.8527 – 2044 (74 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8549 – 2130 (120 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia and its major trading partners met expectations with little else of substance. This caused a short move that did not move until 16 sec into the :31 bar for only 3 ticks, then took another 90 sec to move beyond that. The spike started just above the 200 SMA then remained near there for almost 2 min before falling to cross the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD for 18 ticks. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you should have cancelled the order after no movement for 16 sec, but if you let it stand you would have filled short at 0.8540. You could have cancelled at breakeven or waited for the eventual drop, but the safe and conservative play would be to exit on the :32 bar at breakeven. After the delayed peak, it reversed 28 ticks to extend the HOD. Then it pulled back 26 ticks in nearly an hour to the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 46 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.10.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/10/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8597
1st Peak @ 0.8606 – 1930:09 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.8598 – 1930:58 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8630 – 2040 (70 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.8618 – 2055 (85 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt lower than last month with no previous revision. This caused a small 9 tick long spike that started just below the 200 SMA and rose to cross the 100/50 SMAs. It hovered near the top for 35 sec before falling 8 ticks as the bar was expiring. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.8602 with 1 tick of slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with 2-3 ticks above the 100/50 SMAs where it hovered before reversing. After the 8 tick reversal, it climbed slowly but steadily for a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks to the R1 Pivot in 70 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 15 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.17.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/17/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.8692 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8686 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8701 – 1931:39 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8696 – 1934 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.8709 – 1942 (12 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.8692 – 2024 (54 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8684 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 0.8676 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8699 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.8707 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 6 ticks initially after 10 sec to nearly reach the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot then reversed. As it did not hover but “stabbed lower”, there would not have been an opportunity for a manual adjusted entry. Still since the Cash rate from 2 weeks prior fell before reversing in a sustained long move, it would be safe to enter long near the anchor point as it reversed 15 ticks in about 90 sec. This would have allowed up to 10 ticks to be captured. After a 5 tick pullback in 2 min to the PP Pivot, it reversed for 13 ticks as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in the next 42 min to the 200 SMA.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.1.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Dec 312014

12/1/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.8474 – shift to 0.8479
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8491 – 2230:13 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8474 – 2230:27 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8503 – 2231:28 (2 min)
)))29 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8463 – 2240 (10 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8519 – 2310 (40 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.8493 – 2357 (87 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8467 (on the LOD) / 0.8459 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8490 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8501 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. The initial anchor point would have shifted higher about 5 ticks after the 45 sec buffer, so bias the orders higher as time lapses. This caused a premature short move of 9 ticks 5 sec early followed by a long move of 12 ticks after 13 sec that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and reversed. Your inner short entry would have filled with 1 tick to spare then reversed quickly to allow at least 8 ticks and up to 16 ticks to be captured after 14 sec. There are 2 ways to play the reaction. You could have exited with the profit and cancelled any pending orders, or left the outer tiers on the board. If you followed the latter, your outer short entry would have filled at about 1:28 after the report. This is very similar to the reaction last month. Then it reversed for 40 ticks in the next 8 min to reach the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. The SMAs would have been a good target for about 25 ticks, but another 10-12 ticks could have been captured too. After the reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 28 more ticks in the next 30 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 26 ticks in the next 47 min as it crossed the 100 SMA.

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