6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

 Official Bank Rate  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016
May 052016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_20166B 06-16 (1 Range) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.4137
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 1.4163 and 1.4116 – 0700:02
)))+26 / -21 ticks

)))1st Peak @ 1.4171 – 0701:11 (1 min)
)))34 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.4145 – 0708 (8 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.4165 – 0709 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.4139 – 0716 (16 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4127 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot) / 1.4118 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.4147 (just below the 100 SMA) / 1.4157 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: All tiers – avg short 1.4152
Best Initial Exit: 1.4122.5 – avg long – 59 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: As long as your anchor point was with 3 ticks of 1.4137, this would have been an instantaneous profit of almost 60 ticks with the huge whipsaw at launch. After that it peaked at the S2 Mid Pivot then reversed. Another cycle followed then volatility died down.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016
May 052016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_12_2016

4/12/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 2.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.4281
1st Peak @ 1.4323 – 0430:00 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.4288 – 0430:02 (1 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1.4315 – 0434 (4 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4286 – 0438 (8 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Trigger to cancel as a 20 tick short spike and reverse happened 10 sec before the report. Then we saw a 42 tick immediate spike that promptly collapsed. If traded the slippage would have probably exceeded 10 ticks and then put you in the red if not stopped. After that it trickled higher in 3 min before reversing to the 20 SMA. Then it continued to cycle.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016

 GBP Manufacturing Production  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016
Apr 262016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_8_2016

4/8/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: -0.2%
Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4126
1st Peak @ 1.4109 – 0431:11 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4120 – 0434 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4095 – 0442 (12 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4121 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.4110 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4103 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Nice short spike fell 17 ticks in a little over a minute to give a low slippage fill and allow up to 11 ticks to be captured. Then a small reversal followed by a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

 GBP Services PMI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016
Apr 262016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 53.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4223
1st Peak @ 1.4211 – 0430:30 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4218 – 0430:54 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4206 – 0433 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0449 (19 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4219 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4212 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4210 (in between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Matching report caused a smaller move, but offered a zero slippage fill and up to 7 ticks initially. It found support at the LOD, then reversed and fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks 2 min later to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then a nice reversal in the next 16 min to the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016

 GBP Construction PMI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016
Apr 262016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_4_2016

4/4/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 54.2
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.4215
1st Peak @ 1.4219 – 0430:18 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.4210 – 0431:32 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4234 – 0436 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.4193 – 0455 (25 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused a dull move of only 4 ticks in 18 sec. Cancel the trade with these conditions. It did achieve a decent 2nd peak, but it is not advisable to seek a trade on this as the results are not likely the cause and it was unexpected. The reversal after the 2nd peak could have been traded after seeing the price action around 0440 and the 13 SMA turn down.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

 GBP Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016
Apr 152016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 51.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4363
1st Peak @ 1.4348 – 0431:45 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.4360 – 0434 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4314 – 0452 (22 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 1.4335 – 0458 (28 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4359 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4349 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4344 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Small and slow moving short spike due to a narrow offset. This would have seen a no slippage fill and easy exit with up to 10 ticks. After a reversal it settled into a short trend for a large 2nd peak of 34 more ticks to the S2 Pivot.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016

 Official Bank Rate  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016
Apr 102016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_17_2016

3/17/2016 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0800 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.4366
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4359 – 0800:01 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4391 – 0800:36 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.4373 – 0800:48 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.4406 – 0803 (3 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 1.4378 – 0811 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.4429 – 0816 (16 min)
51 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4357 (just above the 100 SMA) / 1.4348 (just below the 50 SMA)
Short entries – 1.4375 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.4386 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: Both tiers short – avg short 1.4380.5
Best Initial Exit: 1.4374 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4366 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled in 23 sec, then it hovered briefly at the HOD before reversing to allow about 10 ticks total to be captured. Then it stepped higher before reversing to the 100 SMA.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

 GBP Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016
Apr 102016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 GBP Retail Sales (0530 EDT)
Forecast: -0.7%
Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4089
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4079 – 0530:05 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4089 – 0531:00 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.4066 – 0537 (7 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.4089 – 0548 (18 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4144 – 0647 (77 min)781 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:25/40
Long entries – 1.4062 (just above the LOD) / 1.4047 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4114 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.4131 (just below the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order as it only strayed 10 ticks from the origin for the first min. Then it slowly drifted short for 13 more ticks before a long slow reversal.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on 6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016
Apr 102016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.4%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -1.1%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.3%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4284
1st Peak @ 1.4257 – 0530:00 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4314 – 0546 (16 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 1.4271 – 0619 (49 min)
43 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4272 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4259 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4255 (just below the LOD) – move higher to about 1.4260 after hovering

Notes: Nice short spike that hit the LOD then pulled away a bit and hovered near the low for 30 sec before reversing. This would have allowed 10-13 ticks to be captured easily with or without a profit target. Since the market had crossed the S4 Mid Pivot in a big selloff earlier, the LOD was likely solid. Then it reversed strongly in the next 15 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot before pulling back.

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