British Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Apr 092016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0530 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.0%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -8.8K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -18.0K
Previous Revision: -13.6K to -28.4K
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.4127
1st Peak @ 1.4139 – 0530:31 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4128 – 0530:35 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.4140 – 0534 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4110 – 0542 (12 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The initial second movement would have been contained within the 10 tick bracket for the first 25 sec, so cancel the order. After dealing with resistance from the S1 Pivot for the first 4 min it reversed nicely for 30 ticks to the 200 SMA.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

GBP Services PMI Comments Off

Mar 272016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 55.1
Actual: 52.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4062
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4042 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4059 – 0430:04 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.4033 – 0433 (3 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.4072 – 0439 (9 min)
39 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4084 – 0456 (26 min)
51 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4039 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4024 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4082 (in between the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4097 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner long tier and recoiled instantly. It slowly fell for a 2nd peak just below the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

GBP Manufacturing Production Comments Off

Mar 272016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE (DULL FILL)
Started @ 1.4229
1st Peak @ 1.4216 – 0430:02 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.4230 – 0430:05 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.4221 – 0430:30 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0441 (11 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4224 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.4217 – 7 ticks (likely exit – 1.4223 – 1 tick)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4211 (on the PP Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Small reaction in the wrong direction that was quick to recoil and did not want to fall lower than the initial spike. Possibly due to the long move in progress and the support of the 50 SMA with the OOD and PP Pivot looming below. A profit target of 7 or less would have filled on the immediate spike, otherwise look for an exit near breakeven in the middle of the :31 bar.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 272016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 55.5
Actual: 54.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3943
1st Peak @ 1.3933 – 0431:24 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3944 – 0433 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3915 – 0445 (15 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3994 – 0609 (99 min)
79 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.3939 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.3934 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.3927 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Small initial spike recoiled then fell again in the middle of the :31 bar. Due to the decisive results, propensity for a 2nd peak, and lack of a key support level above the LOD, stay patient. It fell for a 2nd peak breaking through the S1 Mid Pivot just after. Then it reversed into a long trend lasting about 1.5 hrs for 79 ticks to the HOD / R1 Pivot.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 272016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_1_2016

3/1/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 50.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3943
1st Peak @ 1.3909 – 0431:30 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.3962 – 0448 (18 min)
53 ticks

Pullback to 1.3941 – 0503 (33 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.4021 – 0546 (76 min)
80 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.3938 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.3910 – 28 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.3917 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Nice short reaction that fell to nearly reach the PP Pivot after 90 sec. Then a nice reversal followed to the R1 Pivot initially, then a long trend in the next hour.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

GBP Second Estimate GDP Comments Off

Mar 222016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)

Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.3918
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3930 – 0430:21 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3901 – 0432:44 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
————
2nd Peak to 1.3939 – 0450 (20 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.3910 – 0505 (35 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3908 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot/ LOD) / 1.3898 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.3929 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.3939 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A fill just before the time to cancel on the inner short tier, then a nice reversal allowing up to 27 ticks to be captured. A target at the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot would have been prudent. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing again.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

GBP Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 082016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 GBP Retail Sales (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.8
Actual: 2.3
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -1.4%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4328
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4346 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4314 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-32 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.4335 – 0431:10 (2 min)
)))21 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.4297 – 0436 (6 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 1.4309 – 0437 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4268 – 0442 (12 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 1.4318 – 0513 (43 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4299 (just above theLOD) / 1.4289 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4352 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4366 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order as the quick move would have missed the inner short tier by about 6 ticks and ran away quickly. After the strong reversal, it continued to step lower for the next 11 min before pulling back to the area of the market before the report.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016

CPI Comments Off

Mar 062016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_16_2016

2/16/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -1.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to -0.3%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4488
1st Peak @ 1.4462 – 0430:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.4482 – 0430:29 (1 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4505 – 0434 (4 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4445 – 0505 (35 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.4469 – 0534 (64 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4479 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4465 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4462 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move higher to above the Pivot after hovering

Notes: Relatively small spike due to the match on CPI and the support of the R1 / R1 Mid Pivots and 100 SMA. It stabbed at the R1 Mid Pivot twice in the first 4 sec, then retreated to hover above the Pivot. Look to exit around 1.4468. Nice strong reversal for 43 ticks in 4 min before a delayed 2nd peak push to the PP Pivot.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Mar 062016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.9%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 2.1%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -2.9K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -14.8K
Previous Revision: -10.9K to -15.2K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4288
1st Peak @ 1.4253 – 0430:06 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.4295 – 0436 (6 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 1.4277 – 0448 (18 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.4340 – 0519 (49 min)
63 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4276
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4254 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4247 ( in between the S1 Pivot and LOD) – move higher after hovering to 1.4260 area

Notes: The initial second saw a whipsaw that would have been contained inside the 10 tick bracket. Then we saw the decisive reaction fall 35 ticks in 6 sec and hover about 10 ticks above the S1 Pivot. Look to exit there as this is a precursor to a reversal and the strong layers of support crossed between 1.4275 an d1.4280. Then we saw a nice reversal of 42 ticks in 6 min then another 63 ticks in the next 40 min.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

GBP Manufacturing Production Comments Off

Mar 042016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.4467
1st Peak @ 1.4438 – 0430:01 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.4499 – 0431:28 (2 min)
61 ticks

Pullback @ 1.4474 – 0436 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.4511 – 0503 (33 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4461 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4439 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4446 (15 ticks and just below the PP Pivot / LOD)

Notes: Larger reaction but short lived due to crossing the PP Pivot and LOD on top of eachother. A profit target of anything less than 22 ticks would have filled. Otherwise you would be looking at a breakeven exit as it hovered for 30 sec near the fill point before continuing higher. After that it continued to reverse to the HOD in 30 min.

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