British Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.18.2014

CPI Comments Off

Apr 142014

2/18/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.0%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.7%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6681
1st Peak @ 1.6655 – 0432 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.6688 – 0439 (9 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6652 – 0448 (18 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.6705 – 0548 (78 min)
53 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% below the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.5%, and the RPI exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused an expected safe short reaction that started on the 50 SMA then fell for 26 ticks, crossing the S2 Pivot and nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. After the :31 bar, it reversed for 33 ticks on the next 8 bars back to the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :18 bar to the S3 Mid Pivot. After that, it headed into a slow developing reversal for 53 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the PP Pivot.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 3.25.2014

CPI Comments Off

Apr 142014

3/25/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.7%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.6%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6481
1st Peak @ 1.6500 – 0532 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.6472 – 0541 (11 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1.6489 – 0600 (30 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.6480 – 0614 (44 min)
9 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in matching the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.8%, and the RPI exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a choppy initial reaction that settled into a long spike of 19 ticks, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the HOD halfway through the :32 bar. After that, due to the disappointing portion of the news, it reversed for 28 ticks on the next 9 bars back to S1 Mid Pivot. Then it climbed 17 ticks in the next 19 min, nearly reaching the PP Pivot, before reversing 9 ticks to the SMAs.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.3.2014

GBP Services PMI Comments Off

Apr 212014

4/3/2014 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 57.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 1.6621 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6594 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6612 – 0431:14 (2 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.6596 – 0434 (4 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.6609 – 0447 (17 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6586 – 0501 (31 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.6599 – 0514 (44 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6600 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 1.6586 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6642 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6655 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot/HOD)

Notes: Report came in short of expectations with an offset of -0.6 causing a premature short impulse for 27 ticks that started about 15 sec early and eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot just after the :31 bar started. This would have filled you inner long tier with about 6 ticks to spare. Then it reversed over the next 1:14 for 18 ticks nearly to the S1 Mid Pivot, allowing up to 12 ticks to be captured. After that is pulled back to 2 ticks short of the initial peak on the :34 bar and reversed to the 13/20 SMAs 12 min later. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot on the :01 bar, before reversing 13 ticks in the next 13 min and trading sideways.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.1.2014

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 222014

4/1/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 56.7
Actual: 55.3
Previous revision: -0.7 to 56.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6663
1st Peak @ 1.6633 – 0431 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1.6648 – 0434 (4 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6632 – 0452 (22 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.6644 – 0512 (42 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.4 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 30 ticks that started above the SMAs, then fell to cross the all 3 major SMAs, extend the LOD and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled short at about 1.6649 with 9 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 1.6645 and 1.6634 for the first 21 sec. A 10 tick profit target would have been prudent, otherwise, look to exit at about 1.6637 for 12 ticks. After the peak, reversed back to the PP Pivot for 15 ticks, then fell for a double bottom 18 min later. Then it reversed for 12 ticks to the 50 SMA in 20 min.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Apr 222014

4/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 62.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6645
1st Peak @ 1.6633 – 0431 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6648 – 0455 (25 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.6634 – 0510 (40 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 0.6 pts offset. This caused a small short spike of 12 ticks that started above the 50 SMA, then fell to cross the 100 SMA and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.6641 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 3-4 ticks when it hovered for about 15 sec. It started to reverse in the latter part of the :31 bar, then got stuck on the 50 SMA for 20 min before breaking out to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot for a total of 15 ticks. After that it started to drift lower as it pulled back for 14 ticks 15 min later.

6B 06-13 (1 Min) 4.25.2013

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

4/25/2013 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.3%
TRAP TRADE (STOP OUT)
Started @ 1.5289 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5368 – 0430:06 (1 min)
)))79 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5358 – 0430:08 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 1.5397 – 0430:26 (1 min)
)))39 ticks
————
Peak @ 1.5411 – 0433 (3 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 1.5390 – 0436 (6 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5443 – 0506 (36 min)
154 ticks

Reversal to 1.5420 – 0524 (54 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5252 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.5238 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5324 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 1.5339 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in 0.2% above the forecast to impress the market. This caused a long spike of 79 ticks after 6 sec that started on the R2 Mid Pivot and eclipsed all 3 major SMAs, the R4 Pivot and HOD. This would have filled both short entries and then the stops for a loss of about 32 ticks total. The large reaction and bias long without any reversal along the way is an anomaly. It continued to climb to 1.5411 on the :33 bar, chopped sideways for about 25 min, then used the 13/20 SMAs as a springboard to climb for a final peak at 1.5443 for 154 total ticks.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 7.25.2013

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

7/25/2013 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.5368 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5307 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-61 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5346 – 0430:56 (1 min)
)))39 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5292 – 0503 (33 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 1.5309 – 0516 (46 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5333 (in between the R1 Mid and PP Pivots) / 1.5318 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5405 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 1.5418 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast. This caused a short spike of 61 ticks after 7 sec that started on the 20 SMA and eclipsed all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot and OOD. This would have filled both long entries with about 11 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 39 ticks as the bar was expiring. With the R1Mid Pivot at 1.5340, a handful of ticks above the price action in the earlier part of the bar, look to exit at about 1.5341 for 31 total ticks. After the reversal, it chopped below the R1 Mid Pivot for a few min, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot after 30 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in 13 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs. After that it continued to step lower.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

10/25/2013 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6197 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6160 – 0429:59 (0 min)
)))-37 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6229 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))69 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6178 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-51 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6217 – 0431:02 (2 min)
)))39 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.6234 – 0437 (7 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 1.6182 – 0544 (74 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6163 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6149 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6229 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6247 (in between the R2 and R2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast for the second straight quarter. This caused an immediate large whipsaw with a short spike of 37 ticks 1 sec early that started on the OOD and eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD, then immediately reversed 69 ticks to the R1 Pivot and then fell to the PP Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 3 ticks to spare and just missed the short tier on the opposite side. After the pullback it reversed again as the :31 bar progressed. Look to exit around the 200 SMA for about 50 ticks. After the :31 bar, it tried to climb higher, but the R1 Pivot kept it from breaking out. Then it reversed back to the SMAs and traded sideways for about 30 min, then fell lower.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 1.28.2014

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

1/28/2014 Prelim GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6585 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6541 – 0430:03 (1 min)
)))-44 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6572 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))31 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.6560 – 0433 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6599 – 0435 (5 min)
39 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6547 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 1.6535 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6620 (just above the HOD) / 1.6635 (in between the R3 and R3 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast for the third straight quarter. This caused a short spike of 44 ticks after 3 sec that started on the R1 Pivot and eclipsed the S1 Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 6 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 31 ticks in the next 4 sec, back to the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot a and hovered in the area for over a minute allowing an easy exit with about 25 ticks. After it pulled back 12 ticks on the :33 bar, it continued to reverse for another 39 ticks in 2 min, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reaching the 200 SMA. After that it sold off for nearly 70 ticks in the next 40 min.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

Official Bank Rate Comments Off

May 032014

4/10/2014 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION-NO FILL)
Started @ 1.6780 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6788 – 0659:57 (0 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6776 – 0700:50 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 1.6764 – 0708 (8 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6764 (just below the PP Pivot) / 1.6754 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6797 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.6807 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The Bank of England left rates unchanged as expected, and the Asset Purchase Facility also remained unchanged. This caused a muted move of only 8 ticks that acted 3 sec early. Then the :01 bar fell 12 ticks. This was all well inside of the inner tier, so cancel the order on the dull reaction. It continued to fall in the next 7 min, crossing the 100/200 SMAs and the PP Pivot for another 12 ticks. Then after a reversal, it drifted lower in the next hour.

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