CNY Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.31.2014

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 122014

8/31/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 51.1
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.9319 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.9324 – 2100:59 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.9320 – 2110 (11 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast and yielded only 5 ticks about 2 min after the news was released. Once again it was released at 2059:12 (48 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We saw 3 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time, and the news broke when it was 2 ticks from the anchor point. The spike started just above the OOD and rose to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA on the :01 bar. With JOBB you would not have seen a move more than 1 tick after the news release, so cancel the order at 2100. After the peak, it reversed for 4 ticks to the 100/50 SMAs in 9 min. The release on a Sunday evening when Monday was a US holiday may have also contributed to the dull reaction.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 8.31.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 132014

8/31/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 50.2
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 3.1695
1st Peak @ 3.1665 – 2201 (16 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.1700 – 2225 (40 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a negligible margin of 0.1 pts and was released over the Labor Day holiday weekend. This caused a no move on the :46 bar, but 6 ticks short in 16 min to the 100 SMA. Then it reversed 7 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot in the next 24 min. With JOBB you should have cancelled the order after 15 sec with no impulse. It is notable that the market still moved short in a delayed manner, so in hindsight, shorting the market for a few ticks would have worked.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 9.22.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 50.5
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.0470
1st Peak @ 3.0570 – 2147 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 3.0515 – 2149 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.0620 – 2201 (16 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 3.0565 – 2207 (22 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.0515 – 2300 (75 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders with a negligible previous report downward revision. This caused a healthy long spike that started on the 50 SMA ascending an upward trend and rose to cross the R2 Pivot in 2 bars and extend the HOD. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 3.0490 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit with up to 14 ticks on the :47 bar as it penetrated the R2 Pivot. As noted many times before this report is safe to wait for a peak after 1 min. After the peak, it reversed 11 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in 2 min. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 12 min, presenting a perfect buy opportunity above the R2 Mid Pivot. It would have allowed you to capture up to 20 ticks. Then it reversed back to the R2 Pivot in 6 min for 11 ticks, and followed with another 10 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 53 min.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a long spike of 19 ticks that would have filled with 5 ticks of slippage. As the peak was shortly sustained, the most likely scenario would have been an ext with 4-6 ticks. It would have allowed a good reversal trade opportunity as it hovered just above the R2 Pivot and then fell 12 ticks on 2 occasions allowing about 10 ticks to be captured. After achieving a double top, it reversed 26 ticks in 22 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 9.29.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/29/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.0515
1st Peak @ 3.0490 – 2146 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 3.0525 – 2148 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.0480 – 2154 (9 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 3.0595 – 2239 (54 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a 5 tick short move that crossed the 100 SMA and PP Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.0500 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks when it hovered just below the PP Pivot. It reversed 7 ticks in the next 2 bars before falling for a 2 tick 2nd peak to reach the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 45 min to nearly reach the HOD.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/30/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 51.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8681 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.8687 – 2059:49 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.8672 – 2108 (9 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.8680 – 2112 (13 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and yielded only 6 ticks about 10 sec after the news was released. Once again it was released at 2059:46 – estimated (14 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We saw 4 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time, and the news broke when it was 1 tick from the anchor point. The spike started near the LOD and rose to reach the 50 SMA on the :00 bar. With JOBB you would have been filled at 0.8686 with no slippage then been able to exit at breakeven as it hovered near the fill point. After the spike, it reversed 15 ticks in 8 min, then pulled back 8 ticks in 4 min. After that it fell and was overtaken by other news at the bottom of the hour.

6A 12-14 (1Min) 10.20.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Nov 152014

10/20/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.2%
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL…INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8740 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 0.8724 – 2159:57 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8776 – 2200:30 (2 min)
52 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.8782 – 2201:42 (3 min)
58 ticks

Pullback to 0.8763 – 2205 (6 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused only a 3 tick bump at about 2159:29 when released, but a delayed short spike of 15 ticks at 2149:57 to the S2 Pivot, then a reversal of 52 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 30 sec. The safe play would have been to cancel the order at about 2159:40 with no decisive move seen. If not, you would have filled short at about 0.8733 with 2 ticks of slippage then likely stopped out at 0.8740 with a loss of 7 ticks including 2 ticks of slippage. Fortunately the relatively tight stop makes the loss small and less impacting. It continued to climb to 0.8782 late in the :02 bar to eclipse the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 3 min to the old HOD position. After that it continued to oscillate between the R1 Mid Pivot and R2 Mid Pivot for the next hour or so. With the matching report and unstable reaction, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 10.22.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 50.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.0215
1st Peak @ 3.0255 – 2145:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 3.0220 – 2145:55 (1 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 3.0200 – 2149 (4 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 3.0235 – 2150 (5 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with no previous report revision. This caused a small 8 tick long spike that hit the HOD and hovered before collapsing late in the :46 bar. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 3.0235 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit with about 2 ticks as it hovered just below the HOD for over 30 sec. In this case with the near match, look to exit with the hovering and do not expect the later peak. It collapsed back to the origin and the PP Pivot as the bar was expiring, then fell another 4 ticks 4 min later. After that it pulled back to the PP Pivot and traded sideways.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a long spike of 13 ticks that would have filled with 4 ticks of slippage. Then it hovered within 4 ticks of the peak to allow an exit with about 2-3 ticks. It would have allowed a good reversal trade opportunity to short it where it hovered on the S1 Mid Pivot and then fell 8 ticks in the next minute and another 16 ticks after 7 min to extend the LOD and nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.2.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/2/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 50.4
DULL REACTION
Started @ 3.0480
1st Peak @ 3.0470 – 2045:12 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 3.0485 – 2047 (2 min)
3 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast. This caused a 2 tick bump short that reached the 50 SMA. With JOBB you should have cancelled after 10 sec with no impulse, but if you did not you would have filled short at 3.0470 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-2 ticks loss. It reversed 3 ticks in the next 2 min and traded sideways for 15 min to illustrate the muted influence.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/19/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 3.0340
1st Peak @ 3.0320 – 2045:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 3.0375 – 2105 (20 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with no previous report revision. This caused a small 4 tick short spike that crossed the 200 SMA and OOD. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 3.0325 with no slippage. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit at breakeven as it hovered just below the OOD for over 30 sec. In this case with the near match, look to exit with the hovering and do not expect the later peak. After that it reversed 11 ticks in the next 19 min to the PP Pivot.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw an indecisive reaction for the first 10 sec. It would have filled short then retreated. The stop would not have been taken, but the most likely exit would have been a 4-5 tick loss.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.30.2014

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 302014

11/30/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8444 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.8435 – 1959:52 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.8442 – 2000:20 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8418 – 2011 (12 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8431 – 2026 (27 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2% to cause a 9 tick short spike that started on the S3 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the 100 /50 SMAs. As usual it released about 20 sec early and peaked before the :00 bar expired. With JOBB you would have been filled short at 0.8439 with no slippage then been able to exit with 3-4 ticks as it hovered at the low point for several seconds. After that it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 30 sec before falling for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks as it crossed the S3 Pivot to nearly reach the LOD in the next 10 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 15 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.

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