ECB Min Bid Rate | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.15.2015

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/15/2015 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.0606
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.0610 – 0745:05 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.0589 – 0753:10 (9 min)
)))-21 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.0586(just above the S1 Pivot) / 1.0578 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 1.0625 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.0636 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The ECB has implemented stimulus and is waiting on the effects to set in. This caused a dull reaction of only 4 ticks long in 5 sec followed by a 21 tick reversal to matched the low from 0700. Cancel the Trap Trade due to the small move. Then it chopped sideways in a tight range waiting on the press conference at 0830.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 06.06.2013

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Aug 092013

6/6/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3116
1st Bar range: 1.3103 t0 1.3126 – 0746 (1 min)
23 ticks span

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.50% after the expected 25 BP cut last month. This resulted in erratic :45 and :46 bars. The volatility and wild swings that initiated about 17 sec before the :45 bar expired should have been cause to cancel the JOBB strategy with the control center tab, but if you did not you would have been stopped out with a 10 tick loss by filling short first, then cut out on the reversal. After the initial announcement, the market drifted up to the R2 Mid Pivot, then oscillated between the major SMAs and the R1 Pivot until the press conference. 2 min into the press conference saw a 20 tick short move that was quickly followed by a long reversal of 75 ticks in the next 18 min.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

May 192013

5/2/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.50% (0.25% cut)
Actual: 0.50%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3150
1st Bar range: 1.3123 t0 1.3190 – 0746 (1 min)
67 ticks span

Notes: The ECB was expected to cut rates 25 BP and followed through. As this was expected, the cut was probably priced in and brought out the jitters in the market. Normally a cut would cause a bearish reaction as the currency is devalued, but this ended up causing a rally after the erratic :46 bar. The volatility and wild swings that initiated about 14 sec before the :45 bar expired should have been cause to cancel the JOBB strategy with the control center tab, but if you did not you would have been stopped out with a 12 tick loss including 2 ticks of slippage. After the cut was announced, the market rallied about 30 ticks in a frenetic manner, then drifted sideways until the press conference. During the first 20 min of the press conference, it continued to see violent swings on each bar or 2-3 bars of 25+ ticks, then it eventually fell about 100 ticks after 9 am.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.4.2013

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

May 072013

4/4/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2818
1st Peak @ 1.2889 – 0746 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 1.2811 – 0803 (18 min)
78 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders. It was trading sideways above or on the SMAs in a tight fist before the news, then the long spike carried it 71 ticks to the R2 Pivot and right back down . With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.2824 with no slippage, then you would have seen very frenetic oscillations between 1.2820 and 1.2889 for about 2 sec before it came back to the origin. If you were lucky and had a profit target built in or pressed the close button at the right time, you could have captured some nice profit. Otherwise you probably exited near breakeven. After the crazy :46 bar, it drifted lower to touch the 50 and 100 SMAs, then climbed about 25 ticks before the press conference took it about 90 ticks south as the ECB defended the asset buying program. The recent bailout of Cyprus with the confiscation of savings accounts likely caused the unsustainable :46 bar.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 3.7.2013

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

May 072013

3/7/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3027
1st Peak @ 1.3043 – 0746 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3007 – 0810 (25 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders. It was trading sideways above or on the SMAs in a tight fist before the news, then the long spike carried it 16 ticks to just below the HOD. It quickly surrendered the gain and fell back to the origin by the :48 bar, then a total of 36 ticks in the next 25 min. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3032 with no slippage, then offered you a brief opportunity to take about 6-12 ticks on the :46 bar before it expired. After the reversal ,it drifted sideways below the SMAs. As the press conference broke, we saw a sharp move lower that quickly reversed into a long fan resulting in about 100 ticks net change.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

May 072013

2/7/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3570
1st Peak @ 1.3578 – 0746 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3542 – 0817 (32 min)
36 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3374 – 1052 (187 min)
204 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders. As it was trading close to the HOD, it spiked long for only 8 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot, then quickly retreated, as the overbought sentiment set in with nothing optimistic from the initial ECB news to stanch it. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3570 with no slippage, then offered you a brief opportunity to take a small profit or break even as the :31 bar expired. The reversal took over quickly diving below the major SMAs for a total of 36 ticks in about 30 min. After it drifted sideways, the press conference caused a much larger bearish move when the limited bond buying program was changed to open ended. This caused nearly 3 hrs of selling in a downward fan for another 168 ticks.

6E 03 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Jan 102013

1/10/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3101
1st Peak @ 1.3122 – 0746 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.3112 – 0750 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3130 – 0808 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.3106 – 0834 (49 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. There continues to be a wait-and -see approach as the ECB bond buying program works its way through the economy. The optimism was enough to cause a rally. The 6E initially spiked long for 21 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and R2 Pivot and peaking as it extended the HOD 4 ticks. After a quick and small reversal of 10 ticks in 5 min, it eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 23 min. Then it traded sideways for several minutes until the gravity of the press conference commentary caused a minor reversal back to the R2 Pivot initially, then a large rally lasting several hours. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3109 with 1 tick of slippage, and given you an opportunity to achieve at least 10 ticks toward the end of the bar.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 12.06.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Dec 062012

12/6/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0245 HI time / 0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3060
1st Peak @ 1.3070 – 0246 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3086 – 0303 (18 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3027 – 0356 (71 min)
59 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.2952 – 0727 (282 min)
134 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. Now it is expected that the ECB may refrain from cutting rates any further after its pledge to buy government bonds lowered borrowing costs and boosted confidence that the Euro can emerge from recession next year. The initially spiked long for 10 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot and peaking at the 100 SMA. After 18 min, it was able to fight through the 100 and 200 SMAs, then the PP Pivot for another 16 ticks. Then it traded sideways for several minutes until the gravity of the press conference commentary caused a selloff. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3067 with no slippage, but only given you a short opportunity to eke out a few ticks unless you were patient and waited on the 2nd Peak. If you had waited, you would only have been 2 ticks n the red briefly on the :47 bar. Mario Draghi gave a disappointing outlook, pledging more bond buying, prompting the bears to jump in. This caused a long term selloff, yielding 59 ticks quickly, then another 75 ticks in the following 3 hrs.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Nov 082012

11/8/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0245 HI time / 0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2747
1st Peak @ 1.2753 – 0246 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2757 – 0257 (12 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.2721 – 0335 (50 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially yawned and failed to move much with a spike of 6 ticks cut short by the S1 Pivot. After 10 min of bobbing between the 100 SMA and the area above the S1 Pivot, it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 10 ticks, before reversing slowly for 36 ticks in the next 40 min. With JOBB, your order would not have been filled with a 7 tick buffer, so cancel out. Mario Draghi did cite worsening economic conditions and a glim outlook, pledging to commence bond-buying but falling short of discussing a rate cut. After the start of the speech , the 6E bounced off of the S2 Pivot and rallied again to nick the PP Pivot for 43 ticks in 24 min. Overall a tame reaction with little to bring in the bears or the bulls this time.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2964
1st Peak @ 1.2977 – 0147 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2958 – 0150 (5 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied for 13 ticks in 2 bars, peaking on the :47 bar as there was no cut, but the ECB basically kept the status quo. So the market rallied, then reversed for 19 ticks on the :50 bar, before chopping sideways up to the press conference . When the press conference began at 0230, the market was choppy but stable until the :34 bar jumped for 25 ticks as Draghis comments excited the bulls. Then it was quite volatile for the next 45 min with long wicks and tails as it swung up and down. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.2970 then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2975 with 5 ticks on the :47 bar.

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