German Zew Economic Sentiment | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.16.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/16/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 39.8
Actual: 36.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3075
1st Peak @ 1.3087 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.3046 – 0501 (1 min)
-41 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 3.5 points worse than the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. This caused a 12 tick unsustainable long spike on the :01 bar that eclipsed the 200 / 100 SMAs, followed by an immediate reversal of 41 ticks in just 6 seconds that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the LOD. Then it retreated and left 17 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3083 with 4 ticks of slippage, then stopped at 1.3069 with 4 ticks of slippage on the quick reversal. We will trap trade this report next time due to the shifting trend. After the :01 bar, it trended slightly higher for the next 2 hrs, disregarding the news.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.18.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 062013

6/18/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 38.2
Actual: 38.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3389
1st Peak @ 1.3377 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.3406 – 0503 (3 min)
29 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching with only 0.3 points better than the forecast to offer little impetus to the market. This caused a 12 tick unsustainable short spike on the :01 bar that eclipsed the R2 Pivot and 100 SMA, followed by a fairly quick reversal of 29 ticks in the next 2 bars to extend the HOD 5 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3383 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it spend only 3 sec in the green with a max of 6 ticks of profit, before it slowly reversed long. In this case, do not leave the stop at 10 ticks, but notice the matching result that is slightly bullish with the initial short move and exit with a 5 tick loss. We may want to trap trade this report in the future as the spike is typically not sustainable.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.14.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jun 012013

5/14/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 39.5
Actual: 36.4
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3000
1st Peak @ 1.3011 – 0501 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.2981 – 0537 (1 min)
-30 ticks

Notes: The reading came in about 3 points worse than the forecast to disappoint the market, but was coupled with the Industrial Production report that was strongly positive. This caused a 11 tick long spike due to the Industrial Production news on the :01 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs, followed by a reversal of 30 ticks 2 sec later on the ZEW news that nearly reached the LOD. The :31 bar then chopped near the bottom and settled 10 ticks from the low. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3005 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been stopped with a 10 tick loss on the reversal. After the :31 bar, it rebounded long for a 2nd peak of 32 ticks in 14 min, then fell strongly for the next 2 hrs. We will disqualify the ZEW report when paired up with Industrial Production in the future.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.16.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 072013

4/16/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 41.5
Actual: 36.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3050
1st Peak @ 1.3031 – 0501 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3095 – 0537 (37 min)
64 ticks

Notes: The reading came in about 5 points worse than the forecast to disappoint the market. This caused a 19 tick short spike on 1 bar that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD, but was unsustainable, leaving 9 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3040 with higher than normal slippage of 6 ticks. After the spike, it pulled back and chopped between 1.3043 and 1.3032, but settled between 1.3036 and 1.3033 for about 20 sec in the middle of the bar allowing for a handful of ticks to be captured. This is becoming a trend where this report has an unsustainable 1st peak. The reversal was large and relatively quick for 64 ticks in 37 min, going from the LOD to the HOD, likely due to a larger oversold sentiment in the market.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3.19.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 072013

3/19/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 47.9
Actual: 48.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2947
1st Peak @ 1.2967 – 0601 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2943 – 0606 (6 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The reading came in a narrow 0.6 points better than the forecast to mildly impress. This caused a 20 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed the PP Pivot and nearly reached the OOD, but was unsustainable, leaving 11 ticks of the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2950 with no slippage. I placed my exit on the PP Pivot and it easily filled for 13 ticks with about 3 ticks to spare. After the spike, it pulled back and quickly reversed for 24 ticks in the next 5 min to cross the 200 SMA. After that it oscillated between 1.2937 and 1.2960 before trending higher about 90 min after the report.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.19.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 072013

2/19/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 35.3
Actual: 48.2
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3347
1st Peak @ 1.3330 – 0501 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3377 – 0501 (1 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 1.3331 – 0546 (46 min)
46 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly 13 points better than the forecast to impress. This caused a surprising indecisive reaction that shorted 17 ticks before reversing for 47 ticks for the true expected reaction. The initial short spike is anomalous, but an occasional risk. Still with a safe track record of 8 previous reports this should not be cause for concern for the future. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3344, then seen about 14 ticks on the board for 3 sec until it reversed upward and would have stopped you out with about a 17 tick loss. The long move hit the R1 Pivot and peaked 7 ticks higher, then reversed back to the low in 46 min.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1.22.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 072013

1/22/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 12.2
Actual: 31.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3308
1st Peak @ 1.3335 – 0501 (1 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3373 – 0616 (76 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 1.3345 – 0707 (127 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 19 points better than the forecast to impress. This caused a 27 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed the 100 SMA, and PP – R2 Pivots With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3313 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at about 1.3334 with about 21 ticks as it crossed the R2 Pivot. After the spike, it pulled back a little, then ascended for a 2nd peak for 38 more ticks over an hour later, struggling to fight through the 200 SMA and R3 Pivot. Then the reversal fell to 1.3345 for 28 ticks, just below the R3 Pivot about 50 min later.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 12.11.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Dec 112012

12/11/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0000 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -11.4
Actual: 6.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2964
1st Peak @ 1.2979 – 0001 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.2958 – 0047 (47 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 18 points better than the forecast to impress. This caused a 15 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed the R3 Pivot and extended the HOD by 13 ticks and was unsustainable, leaving 7 ticks of the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2968 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit with about 9 ticks as it crossed the R3 Pivot. After the spike, it pulled back, traded sideways for 45 min, then the reversal fell to 1.2958 for 21 ticks total. After that it trended higher about 90 min after the report.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.13.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Nov 132012

11/13/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0000 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -9.9
Actual: -15.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2686
1st Peak @ 1.2665 – 0001 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.2690 – 0042 (42 min)
25 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly 6 points worse than the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a 21 tick short spike on 1 bar that crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD by 4 ticks and was slightly unsustainable, leaving 5 ticks of the tail naked. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2681 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 12 ticks as it extended the LOD. After the spike, it retreated up, traded sideways for 30 min, then peaked at 1.2690 for 25 ticks.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.16.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Oct 162012

10/16/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (2300 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -14.6
Actual: -11.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3014
1st Peak @ 1.3027 – 2301 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2991 – 2317 (17 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 3 points better than the forecast to mildly impress. This caused a 13 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but extended the HOD by 7 ticks and was unsustainable, leaving 9 ticks of the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3018 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit with about 7 ticks as it peaks and backs off above the HOD. After the spike, the reversal took hold, yielding 36 ticks in 16 min, crossing all the major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. After

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