EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.24.2013

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 106.0
Actual: 105.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3117
1st Peak @ 1.3130 – 0401 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.3092 – 0434 (34 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching to cause a relatively muted reaction. Even with a matching report, it was still a strong reading and rallied long, but was already trading near the HOD, so it eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot, then fell for the reversal. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3122 with no slippage. The 10 tick stop would have absorbed the 8 ticks of heat then you could have set a target at the S1 Mid Pivot or just above for about 3-4 ticks that would have filled about 15 sec into the bar. The reversal came down to the S1 Pivot and 100/200 SMAs, then traded sideways for about 25 min before falling another 13 ticks. After that it rallied for a double top, 1 tick short of the original peak.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/20/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 49.9
Actual: 48.7
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 51.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.7
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.3260 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3241 – 0329 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3265 – 0330 (2 min)
-24 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3198 – 0443 (75 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 1.3232 – 0459 (91 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Based on the FED news hangover on the currency markets and the performance of the French report 30 min earlier, this report was disqualified at the last minute. Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint while the services reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast to cause an indecisive reaction. This resulted in a 19 tick unsustainable short spike over 1 bar that started on the 100/200 SMAs and fell to hit the LOD then retreat back to the origin quickly. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3252 with 4 ticks of slippage then been stopped with a 6 tick loss (1 tick slippage) on the quick reversal. After the indecisive :01 bar, it traded sideways for 5 min, then turned into a downward fan when the news did not serve to abate the overall selling momentum. It garnered another 43 ticks in the next 75 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 34 ticks back up to the 100 SMA in 16 min.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/20/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 47.1
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: +0.9 to 46.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 45.0
Actual: 46.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3243 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3270 – 0259 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.3248 – 0259 (1 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast to moderately impress with a healthy bullish revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast. The report was a perfect setup for a sustainable long reaction, but the hangover from the FED decision from 12 hrs earlier to announce a scale back of QE3 later this year had drastic impact to currency markets. The 6E had fallen over 160 ticks and was routinely extending the LOD. When the news came in bullish, there were no sellers to fulfill our long stops, so we saw excessive slippage. It spiked long for 27 ticks eclipsing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed and fell 22 ticks, eclipsing the 20 SMA in the next 30 sec. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3264 with 18+ ticks of slippage then stopped out with a 5 tick loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it chopped sideways, then attempted a 2nd peak, but could only get within 1 tick of the 1st peak. Then it settled into the SMAs before the German report broke. While this report was a loser, the market conditions can be attributed to the FED and it should return to normal next time.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.18.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 062013

6/18/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 38.2
Actual: 38.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3389
1st Peak @ 1.3377 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.3406 – 0503 (3 min)
29 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching with only 0.3 points better than the forecast to offer little impetus to the market. This caused a 12 tick unsustainable short spike on the :01 bar that eclipsed the R2 Pivot and 100 SMA, followed by a fairly quick reversal of 29 ticks in the next 2 bars to extend the HOD 5 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3383 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it spend only 3 sec in the green with a max of 6 ticks of profit, before it slowly reversed long. In this case, do not leave the stop at 10 ticks, but notice the matching result that is slightly bullish with the initial short move and exit with a 5 tick loss. We may want to trap trade this report in the future as the spike is typically not sustainable.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.24.13

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 104.6
Actual: 105.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2929
1st Peak @ 1.2961 – 0401 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2947 – 0408 (8 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2993 – 0507 (67 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.2957 – 0540 (100 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The reading came in about 1 point above the forecast to impress the traders. The report came a few (14) sec late and caused a long spike of 32 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.2941 with an abnormally high 7 ticks of slippage. A tight stop would have filled due to the high slippage, so we will expand the stop to 10 ticks for the future to accommodate the slippage and internal retracement. If you were not stopped out, you would have had an opportunity to exit at about 1.2958 as it hovered near the top of the bar for 10 sec, garnering 17 ticks. After the peak, it retreated to near the 13 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot for 14 ticks in 7 min, then it popped back up for a peak at 1.2989 as the bottom of the hour. Then it traded sideways for nearly 40 min on the R2 Mid Pivot unable to break out long or short. Finally it popped up to 1.2993 for the final peak, then reversed for 36 ticks in about 30 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.13

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 042013

5/23/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 49.0
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 48.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2865 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.2878 – 0329 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2855 – 0329 (1 min)
-23 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2906 – 0457 (89 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.2879 – 0517 (109 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast to moderately impress while the services reading came in 0.4 points lower than expected to cause an indecisive reaction. This resulted in a 13 tick long spike over 1 bar that popped up and reversed for 23 ticks. It carved out a higher HOD, then reversed through the 13/20 SMAs and pulled up to settle slightly higher. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2870 with 1 tick of slippage then been stopped with a 6 tick loss (1 tick slippage). Depending upon your broker and feed, you might have seen it hit your stop loss and short entry for an additional loss. After the indecisive :01 bar, it traded sideways for several min, then stepped up for higher peaks. The final peak of 41 ticks was achieved about 1.5 hrs after the report, eclipsing the PP Pivot, then it reversed back to the 100 SMA.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 042013

5/23/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 44.8
Actual: 45.5
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 44.7
Actual: 44.3
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 44.3
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2840 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.2853 – 0259 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2836 – 0259 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2869 – 0325 (27 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress, but the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.4 points worse than the forecast. This caused an indecisive reaction due to the offsetting results. It spiked long for 13 ticks eclipsing the 200 SMA and OOD, then reversed and fell 17 ticks to the 50 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2845 with 2 ticks of slippage then stopped out with a 5 tick loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it never went lower, and eventually rallied above the 200 SMA for 29 ticks from the origin 27 min after the report and just before the German report broke. No final reversal as it stuck the 2nd peak going into the German report. Due to the nature of this report, even a bad report only results in a 5 tick loss.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.14.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jun 012013

5/14/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 39.5
Actual: 36.4
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3000
1st Peak @ 1.3011 – 0501 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.2981 – 0537 (1 min)
-30 ticks

Notes: The reading came in about 3 points worse than the forecast to disappoint the market, but was coupled with the Industrial Production report that was strongly positive. This caused a 11 tick long spike due to the Industrial Production news on the :01 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs, followed by a reversal of 30 ticks 2 sec later on the ZEW news that nearly reached the LOD. The :31 bar then chopped near the bottom and settled 10 ticks from the low. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3005 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been stopped with a 10 tick loss on the reversal. After the :31 bar, it rebounded long for a 2nd peak of 32 ticks in 14 min, then fell strongly for the next 2 hrs. We will disqualify the ZEW report when paired up with Industrial Production in the future.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

May 192013

5/2/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.50% (0.25% cut)
Actual: 0.50%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3150
1st Bar range: 1.3123 t0 1.3190 – 0746 (1 min)
67 ticks span

Notes: The ECB was expected to cut rates 25 BP and followed through. As this was expected, the cut was probably priced in and brought out the jitters in the market. Normally a cut would cause a bearish reaction as the currency is devalued, but this ended up causing a rally after the erratic :46 bar. The volatility and wild swings that initiated about 14 sec before the :45 bar expired should have been cause to cancel the JOBB strategy with the control center tab, but if you did not you would have been stopped out with a 12 tick loss including 2 ticks of slippage. After the cut was announced, the market rallied about 30 ticks in a frenetic manner, then drifted sideways until the press conference. During the first 20 min of the press conference, it continued to see violent swings on each bar or 2-3 bars of 25+ ticks, then it eventually fell about 100 ticks after 9 am.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.16.2013

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 072013

4/16/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 41.5
Actual: 36.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3050
1st Peak @ 1.3031 – 0501 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3095 – 0537 (37 min)
64 ticks

Notes: The reading came in about 5 points worse than the forecast to disappoint the market. This caused a 19 tick short spike on 1 bar that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD, but was unsustainable, leaving 9 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3040 with higher than normal slippage of 6 ticks. After the spike, it pulled back and chopped between 1.3043 and 1.3032, but settled between 1.3036 and 1.3033 for about 20 sec in the middle of the bar allowing for a handful of ticks to be captured. This is becoming a trend where this report has an unsustainable 1st peak. The reversal was large and relatively quick for 64 ticks in 37 min, going from the LOD to the HOD, likely due to a larger oversold sentiment in the market.

Older Entries Newer Entries