6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3.19.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3.19.2013
May 072013
 

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3_19_2013

3/19/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast:  47.9
Actual:  48.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2947
1st Peak @ 1.2967 – 0601 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2943 – 0606 (6 min)
24 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in a narrow 0.6 points better than the forecast to mildly impress.  This caused a 20 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed the PP Pivot and nearly reached the OOD, but was unsustainable, leaving 11 ticks of the wick naked.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2950 with no slippage.  I placed my exit on the PP Pivot and it easily filled for 13 ticks with about 3 ticks to spare.  After the spike, it pulled back and quickly reversed for 24 ticks in the next 5 min to cross the 200 SMA.  After that it oscillated between 1.2937 and 1.2960 before trending higher about 90 min after the report.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.19.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.19.2013
May 072013
 

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2_19_2013

2/19/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast:  35.3
Actual:  48.2
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3347
1st Peak @ 1.3330 – 0501 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3377 – 0501 (1 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 1.3331 – 0546 (46 min)
46 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in nearly 13 points better than the forecast to impress.  This caused a surprising indecisive reaction that shorted 17 ticks before reversing for 47 ticks for the true expected reaction.  The initial short spike is anomalous, but an occasional risk.  Still with a safe track record of 8 previous reports this should not be cause for concern for the future.  With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3344, then seen about  14 ticks on the board for 3 sec until it reversed upward and would have stopped you out with about a 17 tick loss.  The long move hit the R1 Pivot and peaked 7 ticks higher, then reversed back to the low in 46 min.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1.22.2013

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1.22.2013
May 072013
 

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1_22_2013

1/22/2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast:  12.2
Actual:  31.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3308
1st Peak @ 1.3335 – 0501 (1 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3373 – 0616 (76 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 1.3345 – 0707 (127 min)
28 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in over 19 points better than the forecast to impress.  This caused a 27 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed the 100 SMA, and PP – R2 Pivots  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3313 with 1 tick of slippage.  Look to exit at about 1.3334 with about 21 ticks as it crossed the R2 Pivot.  After the spike, it pulled back a little, then ascended for a 2nd peak for 38 more ticks over an hour later, struggling to fight through the 200 SMA and R3 Pivot.  Then the reversal fell to 1.3345 for 28 ticks, just below the R3 Pivot about 50 min later.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013
May 072013
 

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4_24_2013

4/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast:  106.4
Actual: 104.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2993
1st Peak @ 1.2959 – 0401 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.3022 – 0450 (50 min)
63 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in 2 points below the forecast to disappoint.  The report came a few sec late and caused a short spike of 34 ticks about 11 sec into the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.2986 with 2 ticks of slippage.  Then it would have continued to step lower to bottom at 1.2959 33 sec into the bar while eclipsing the S2 Mid Pivot.  That would be a great target to exit with 20+ ticks.  Then it reversed to initially hit the 13 SMA, then struggled with the 50 SMA, but made quick work of the 100 / 200 SMAs and the PP Pivot to extend the HOD by 6 ticks.  After that, the HOD held for an hour as it drifted sideways between the PP Pivot and the HOD, then achieved 16 more ticks about 2 hrs after the report.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3.22.2013

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3.22.2013
May 072013
 

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3_22_2013

3/22/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast:  107.8
Actual: 106.7
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2914
1st Peak @ 1.2927 – 0401 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2900 – 0401 (1 min)
-27 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast to disappoint.  This caused an indecisive reaction for unknown reasons, but it was the second such occurrence in the last 3 events, even though the last 7 were safe.  Due to the trend, this will be a RISK 4 for the immediate future.  We saw a quick pop of 13 ticks, then a reversal of 27 ticks to stop us out.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.2920 with 2 ticks of slippage.  Then it would have reversed immediately to hit the stop loss and opposite entry at the same time.  This would have activated the “knife switch” to prevent any follow on orders (stop losses) from presenting on the chart.  After the indecisive :01 bar, it chopped higher in the next 2.5 hrs in spite of the bearish news.  This is another indication of underlying conditions that created the indecision in the first place.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.22.2013

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.22.2013
May 072013
 

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2_22_2013

2/22/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast:  104.9
Actual: 107.4
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 104.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3220
1st Peak @ 1.3247 – 0401 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.3213 – 0434 (34 min)
34 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in 2.5 points above the forecast to impress.  This caused a 27 tick long spike on 1 bar that crossed only the 50 SMA.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3224 and had an opportunity to close out with about 15-20 ticks as the :01 bar expired.    After the 1st peak, it reversed for 34 ticks in 34 min, fighting through all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot.  Then it traded sideways until the news at 0500 broke.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1.25.2013

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on 6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1.25.2013
May 072013
 

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1_25_2013

1/25/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast:  103.1
Actual: 104.2
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3431 (0401)
1st Peak @ 1.3414 – 0402 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3440 – 0402 (1 min)
26 ticks

Notes:  The reading came in 1.1 points above the forecast to impress, but was delayed 1 min in the release.  This caused an indecisive reaction most likely because the market was overbought having sustained a runup of about 70 ticks in the previous 2+ hrs.  We saw a quick drop of 17 ticks, then a rebound of 26 ticks to stop us out.  After the indecisive :02 bar, it chopped higher, but had to contend with the R2 Pivot.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.4.2013

 ECB Min Bid Rate  Comments Off on 6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.4.2013
May 072013
 

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4_4_2013

4/4/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast:  0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2818
1st Peak @ 1.2889 – 0746 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 1.2811 – 0803 (18 min)
78 ticks

Notes:  The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders.  It was trading sideways above or on the SMAs in a tight fist before the news, then the long spike carried it 71 ticks to the R2 Pivot and right back down .  With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.2824 with no slippage, then you would have seen very frenetic oscillations between  1.2820 and 1.2889 for about 2 sec before it came back to the origin.  If you were lucky and had a profit target built in or pressed the close button at the right time, you could have captured some nice profit.  Otherwise you probably exited near breakeven.  After the crazy :46 bar, it drifted lower to touch the 50 and 100 SMAs, then climbed about 25 ticks before the press conference took it about 90 ticks south as the ECB defended the asset buying program.  The recent bailout of Cyprus with the confiscation of savings accounts likely caused the unsustainable :46 bar.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 3.7.2013

 ECB Min Bid Rate  Comments Off on 6E 03-13 (1 Min) 3.7.2013
May 072013
 

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 3_7_2013

3/7/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast:  0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3027
1st Peak @ 1.3043 – 0746 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3007 – 0810 (25 min)
36 ticks

Notes:  The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders.  It was trading sideways above or on the SMAs in a tight fist before the news, then the long spike carried it 16 ticks to just below the HOD.  It quickly surrendered the gain and fell back to the origin by the :48 bar, then a total of 36 ticks in the next 25 min.  With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3032 with no slippage, then offered you a brief opportunity to take about 6-12 ticks on the :46 bar before it expired.   After the reversal ,it drifted sideways below the SMAs.  As the press conference broke, we saw a sharp move lower that quickly reversed into a long fan resulting in about 100 ticks net change.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

 ECB Min Bid Rate  Comments Off on 6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013
May 072013
 

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2_7_2013

2/7/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast:  0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3570
1st Peak @ 1.3578 – 0746 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3542 – 0817 (32 min)
36 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3374 – 1052 (187 min)
204 ticks

Notes:  The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders.  As it was trading close to the HOD, it spiked long for only 8 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot, then quickly retreated, as the overbought sentiment set in with nothing optimistic from the initial ECB news to stanch it.  With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3570 with no slippage, then offered you a brief opportunity to take a small profit or break even as the :31 bar expired.   The reversal took over quickly diving below the major SMAs for a total of 36 ticks in about 30 min.  After it drifted sideways, the press conference caused a much larger bearish move when the limited bond buying program was changed to open ended.  This caused nearly 3 hrs of selling in a downward fan for another 168 ticks.

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