EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2964
1st Peak @ 1.2977 – 0147 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2958 – 0150 (5 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied for 13 ticks in 2 bars, peaking on the :47 bar as there was no cut, but the ECB basically kept the status quo. So the market rallied, then reversed for 19 ticks on the :50 bar, before chopping sideways up to the press conference . When the press conference began at 0230, the market was choppy but stable until the :34 bar jumped for 25 ticks as Draghis comments excited the bulls. Then it was quite volatile for the next 45 min with long wicks and tails as it swung up and down. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.2970 then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2975 with 5 ticks on the :47 bar.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.24.12

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Sep 242012

9/24/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2200 HI time / 0400 EDT)
Forecast: 102.6
Actual: 101.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2966
1st Peak @ 1.2933 – 2203 (3 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.2949 – 2208 (8 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2906 – 2243 (43 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 1.2929 – 2350 (110 min)
23 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.2 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a large 33 tick short spike on 3 bars (mostly on the :01 bar) that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs near the origin, and the S2 Pivot about halfway down, then bottomed as it extended the LOD by 5 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2958 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 20 ticks near the LOD. After the initial peak, it reclaimed 16 ticks back to the 13 SMA 5 min later, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 60 total ticks (nearly double the 1st peak) 43 min after the report. It then settled down and achieved a 23 tick slow reversal in the hour following the 2nd peak.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 192012

9/19/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 45.4
Actual: 47.3
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 44.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2962 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2986 – 2131 (3 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2988 – 2141 (13 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.2964 – 2201 (33 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in nearly 2 points above the forecast to impress. This caused a 24 tick long spike over 3 bars that crossed the 50 SMA and S2 Pivot, then eclipsed the 100 SMA to hit its peak. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2965 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit somewhere between the 50 and 100 SMAs with about 12-20 ticks. After the 1st peak, it did not stray far from the 100 SMA and managed 2 more ticks for a small 2nd peak. Then it reversed for 24 ticks in 18 min, nearly back to the origin as it crossed the 50 SMA and S2 Pivot. After that it rebounded long and traded sideways above the 50 SMA and PP Pivot.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 192012

9/19/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 46.5
Actual: 42.6
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 46.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2992 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2975 – 2059 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2952 – 2107 (9 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.2969 – 2124 (26 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in nearly 3 points below the forecast to strongly disappoint. This caused a 17 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed no SMAs and bottomed 1 tick above the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2987 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at the S2 Pivot, which the :02 bar crashed through for 13 ticks, or if you noticed the severity of the report, wait out the 2nd peak for 30 or more ticks. After the 1st peak, it retreated 6 ticks, but unable to reach the 13 SMA, it quickly dove again for a 2nd peak of 40 total ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in 17 min, crossing the 13 and 20 SMAs. After that it fell to the 20 SMA to wait on the German report results.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.18.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 182012

9/18/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (2300 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -19.2
Actual: -18.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3092
1st Peak @ 1.3080 – 2304 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.3095 – 2322 (22 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3057 – 0022 (82 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.3081 – 0048 (108 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1 point better than the forecast to mildly impress, but the overall reading was still disappointing. This caused a 12 tick short spike on 4 bars that crossed that crossed the 100 SMA at the origin and the S1 Pivot lower. The :01 bar could not sustain the drop, but the :04 bar was able to retest and fall for 4 more ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3089 with no slippage. Look to exit with a few ticks at 1.3082, just below the S1 Pivot. After the spike, it reversed for 15 ticks, eclipsing the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak in the next hour as it stepped down to 1.3057 and extended the LOD by 19 ticks. After that it reversed for 24 ticks back to just below the 200 SMA.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Sep 062012

9/6/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2621
1st Peak @ 1.2663 – 0147 (2 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.2630 – 0216 (31 min)
33 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied strongly for 42 ticks, peaking on the :47 bar on the assurance that Mario Draghi would act this time. So the market rallied, then trading sideways for 30 min and reversed for 33 ticks. When the press conference began at 0230, the market was initially choppy as Draghis comments created confusion, then the market settled into a stepped decline. The ECB buy bonds in an attempt to hold together the single currency until the politicians unite and agree upon steps toward a closer political union. This mixed bag caused the tame selloff on the back end. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.2632 then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2654 as it hovered near the top of the bar. You could also set your sell limit at the R2 Pivot since it is a convenient and close target.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.27.12

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Aug 272012

8/27/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2200 HI time / 0400 EDT)
Forecast: 102.7
Actual: 102.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 103.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2518
1st Peak @ 1.2530 – 2205 (5 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2537 – 2216 (16 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.2515 – 0001 (121 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.4 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a delayed 12 tick long spike, peaking on the :05 bar that crossed the PP Pivot only. Due to the PP Pivot being close and the small report offset, the delay is not surprising. With JOBB, you could cancel the order as if it is a dull reaction, or wait for a spike as the report is occasionally delayed about 2 min. If you had waited, you would have filled long at about 1.2523 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 4-6 ticks where it extended the HOD by 4 ticks. It then pulled back a few ticks before gaining 7 more ticks on a 2nd Peak 11 min later. The reversal was slow and took nearly 2 hrs to appear as it tested each of the SMAs and the PP Pivot again, eventually bottoming out 4 ticks below the 200 SMA.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 222012

8/22/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 43.5
Actual: 45.1
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 43.0
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2567 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2574 – 2129 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2561 – 2129 (1 min)
13 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.2538 – 2223 (55 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 1.6 points over the forecast to impress. This caused a dull reaction of a 7 tick long spike on 1 bar that eclipsed the R1 Pivot and could not sustain the rise with the HOD looming 2 ticks higher. After hovering for about 7 sec, it began a slow but deliberate retreat of about 1 tick every 5 sec for a 13 tick reversal. Oddly, the strong French PMI reading caused a bullish rally in the last 30 min that apparently exhausted the bulls even after positive news. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2571 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at about break even as it could not go higher than the R1 Pivot and the HOD was another barrier of resistance. Even if you missed the initial exit, it came back up to the R1 Pivot 9 min later and tested it several times. After it could not penetrate the R1 Pivot, it fell for 36 ticks in the following 45 min, crossing each of the major SMAs. Then it traded sideways just below the 200 SMA.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 222012

8/22/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 43.7
Actual: 46.2
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 45.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2550 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2567 – 2100 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.2557 – 2106 (8 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2576 – 2113 (15 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.2567 – 2120 (22 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 2.5 points above the forecast to strongly impress. This caused a 17 tick long spike over 2 bars that did not cross any SMA or Pivot, but extended the HOD 11 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2555 with 2 ticks of slippage. With the relatively large spike, I would exit at the top of the :59 bar with 10 ticks. No SMAs were crossed, but the HOD extension will limit the buying power. After the peak, it reversed for 10 ticks to the 13 SMA, then ascended for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks about 12 min later. Then it reversed for 9 ticks back to the 13/20 SMAs to wait on the German report results.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.14.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Aug 142012

8/14/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (2300 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -19.4
Actual: -25.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2374
1st Peak @ 1.2362 – 2303 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.2378 – 2321 (21 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2354 – 0004 (64 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2366 – 0018 (78 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 6 points worse than the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a frenetic 12 tick short spike on 3 bars that crossed that crossed the 200 SMA at the origin and the R1 Pivot lower. The :01 bar could not sustain the drop, but the :03 bar was able to retest and fall for 2 more ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2371 with no slippage. Look to exit with a few ticks at 1.2364. After the spike, it reversed for 16 ticks, eclipsing the 100 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak as it stepped down to 1.2354 about 1 hr after the report. After that it reversed for 12 ticks back to the R1 Pivot. It continued chopping slightly lower in the next 2 hrs, but not likely due to the influence of the report.

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