EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2280
1st Peak @ 1.2312 – 0146 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2289 – 0150 (5 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2422 – 0236 (51 min)
142 ticks

Reversal to 1.2188 – 0306 (81 min)
234 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied strongly for 32 ticks on the 1st peak and 142 on a drawn out 2nd peak before a dramatic reversal for almost double the magnitude of the rally. After the initial announcement was made at 0145, expectations fell on Mario Draghi to act on a bond buying program which had been discussed in advance. When he started his speech at 0230, the last bit of the rally climbed and then the air was let out of the balloon as he explained “his plan to promise a plan which plans to promise a solution” instead of action. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and peaked just below the R1 Pivot. The 2nd Peak eclipsed the R2 Pivot on the final push, then the reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R1, PP, and S1 Pivots on its descent. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2289 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2307 where it hovered for about 18 ticks

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 07.24.12

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jul 242012

7/24/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2200 HI time / 0400 EDT)
Forecast: 104.8
Actual: 103.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 105.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2096
1st Peak @ 1.2083 – 2201 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2137 – 2221 (21 min)
54 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.5 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a 13 tick short spike on 1 bar that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs, then bottomed at the PP Pivot. With all the support barriers, the drop was unsustainable as it rebounded to close the bar near the origin. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2090 with no slippage. Look to exit with about 4-5 ticks at the 200 SMA where it hovered for 8 sec before reversing. It then reversed for 54 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA, the R1 Pivot, and extending the HOD by 9 ticks. After that it continued trading near the HOD, chopping sideways.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 07.23.12

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 232012

7/23/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 45.3
Actual: 43.3
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 45.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2132 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2113 – 2129 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.2126 – 2132 (3 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2100 – 2153 (25 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2130 – 2223 (55 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 2 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a 19 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed the 200 SMA near the origin, then the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot about halfway down the bar. Crossing the many levels of support was too much at once as it reversed for 13 ticks on the following 3 bars back to the 100/50 SMAs. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2127 with 2 ticks of slippage. With all the levels of support crossed, look to exit at the end of the :29 bar with about 12 ticks. After the quick reversal, it fell again for the next 20 min to a 2nd peak of 32 total ticks, extending the LOD by 10 ticks. Then it reversed for 30 ticks in 30 min, see resistance at each SMA, and eclipsing the 200 SMA by about 6 ticks. After that it traded sideways stuck to the 200 SMA and PP Pivot.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 07.23.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 232012

7/23/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 45.6
Actual: 43.6
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 45.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2118 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2110 – 2059 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.2141 – 2121 (23 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 2 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a small 8 tick short spike over 1 bar that did not cross any SMA or Pivot, but extended the LOD 2 ticks. This caused a surprisingly quick reversal after 7 sec of hovering near the LOD. With a fairly disappointing report, we would expect a larger sustainable drop. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2114 with 1 tick of slippage. Since the 50 SMA and PP Pivot above should serve as resistance, I would move the stop loss to 1 tick above the 50 SMA at 1.2122, then wait for a secondary drop. When that did not happen it would be an 8 tick loss, but this report reaction is an anomaly. After hitting the LOD, it reversed strongly for 31 ticks in about 20 min. Then it came back down to the 200 SMA to wait on the German report results.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 172012

7/17/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (2300 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: -17.3
Actual: -19.6
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2308
1st Peak @ 1.2296 – 2302 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.2327 – 2312 (12 min)
31 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 2 points worse than the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a 12 tick short spike on 2 bars that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs. After crossing the 200 SMA, it reversed for 31 ticks in the next 10 min, extending the HOD by 4 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2305 with no slippage. Look to exit with a few ticks below the 200 SMA. After the large reversal, it came back down to settle between the 100 and 200 SMA, then trended lower.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Jul 052012

7/5/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75% (0.25% cut)
Actual: 0.75% (0.25% cut)
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.2529
1st Peak @ 1.2498 – 0146 (1 min)
31 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2396 – 0241 (56 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 1.2426 – 0255 (70 min)
30 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to cut the Minimum Bid Rate 0.25% to 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face leave rates unchanged. The 6E predictably sunk into a downward fan as the currency was devalued for 31 ticks on the 1st peak and 133 on the final peak nearly an hour later. Then we saw a small corrective reversal of 30 ticks before it fell again and traded sideways. Not much mystery here…a cut was expected and acted on. The press conference also explained the rate cut and the reasoning – all bearich news for the 6E. The initial spike was sitting on all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot in a tight fist, then crossed the S2 and S3 Pivots on the descent. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2518 with about 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2506, but I would stay in for the long haul since a cut was executed. Close out when the MACD crosses and it is able to rebound above the 20 SMA at about 0248 – 0251 at 1.2415 for over 100 ticks.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 06.22.12

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jun 222012

6/22/2012 German IFO Business Climate (2200 HI time / 0400 EDT)
Forecast: 106.1
Actual: 105.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2545
1st Peak @ 1.2560 – 2202 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.2544 – 2213 (13 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2567 – 2306 (66 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.2550 – 2338 (98 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly a point under the forecast to disappoint. This initially caused a 6 tick drop, then a 15 tick spike on 2 bars that eclipsed the 200 SMA and could not sustain the ascent. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2552 with no slippage. Look to exit with about 4-5 ticks at the 200 SMA. It then reversed for 16 ticks back to the origin about 10 min later, chopped sideways for another 30 min, then finally broke long for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks about an hour after the report. Then it reversed for 17 ticks.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 45.3
Actual: 44.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 45.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2683 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2671 – 2202 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2651 – 2147 (19 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2673 – 2205 (37 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 0.6 points under the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a 12 tick drop over 4 bars that did not cross any SMAs or Pivots, but struggled with a previous low and level of support at 1.2673. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2679 with 1 tick of slippage. Either look to exit at the level of previous low at 1.2673 with 6 ticks, or be patient and see if it crosses the LOD then ride the selloff until the 13 crosses the 20 SMA for 20 or more ticks. After a small 9 tick reversal to the 13 SMA, it fell again for the next 14 min to a 2nd peak of 32 total ticks, extending the LOD by 18 ticks. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in 18 min, eclipsing the 50 SMA by about 4 ticks. After that it continued a choppy ascent back up to the 200 SMA where it struggled, but eventually broke through long.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 44.6
Actual: 45.3
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 44.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2681 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2695 – 2105 (7 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.2682 – 2119 (21 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress. This caused a 14 tick spike over 7 bars that crossed all 3 major SMAs, but having recently dropped below them, they had not been established as resistance yet. It eclipsed the PP Pivot by 3 ticks to hit its peak. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2684 with no slippage. Look to exit at the PP Pivot with 8 ticks – right on the 12 tick average for this report. After the peak, it eventually reversed back to 1 tick above the origin in 21 min for 13 ticks. Then it popped up to the PP Pivot and came back down before the German report broke.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 06.19.12

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jun 192012

6/19/2012 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (2300 HI time / 0500 EDT)
Forecast: 3.8
Actual: -16.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2608
1st Peak @ 1.2585 – 2301 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.2630 – 2321 (21 min)
45 ticks

Notes: The reading came in over 20 points worse than the forecast to heavily disappoint. This caused a 23 tick short spike on 1 bar that eclipsed the 100 and 50 SMAs and the PP Pivot. Crossing the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot proved too much to sustain as 9 ticks of the tail were left naked. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2603 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 12 ticks at 1.2590, a short term low previously hit just below the PP Pivot / 50 SMA. It then reversed for 45 ticks back through the origin, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot to nearly reach the HOD 20 min later.

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