EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 292014

5/22/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 54.0
Actual: 52.9
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 54.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.8
Actual: 56.4
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 54.7
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3664
1st Peak @ 1.3651 – 0331 (1 min)
-13 ticks

Reversal to 1.3677 – 0332 (2 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3683 – 0343 (13 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast to impress with a negligible downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.6 points above the forecast with a negligible downward previous report revision to cause perfect whipsaw scenario with near equal bias to go short and long to hit the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD on the short side and match the high from 0250 on the long side. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3655 with 5 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at 1.3672 with 2 ticks of slippage for a 7 tick loss. Fortunately this has been the first loss in about 9 months and we can use a tight stop on this report. After the chaotic :31 bar, it extended the reversal to reach the R1 Mid Pivot after 13 min. Then it traded sideways along the 13/20 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 292014

5/22/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 49.3
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 51.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.2
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 50.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3674
1st Peak @ 1.3654 – 0301 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3666 – 0305 (5 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.3658 – 0318 (18 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3667 – 0329 (29 min)
9 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a negligible upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a moderate short spike of 20 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3663 with 8 ticks of slippage then seen it fall to the S1 Mid Pivot and retreat after 3 sec. A profit target of 8 or less would have filled, otherwise look to exit at 59 or 58 where it hovered in the middle of the :01 bar. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA, then it fell for 8 ticks in the next 13 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks as it headed into the German report release.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 5.23.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

May 302014

5/23/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 111.0
Actual: 110.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3644
1st Peak @ 1.3629 – 0400:48 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.3639 – 0404 (4 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3615 – 0437 (37 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.3626 – 0452 (52 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.6 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint but still remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a slow developing short spike of 15 ticks started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD to peak late in the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3640 with no slippage, then seen it initially struggle with the LOD and S1 Pivot before it made a secondary push lower for another 10 ticks after 30 sec. Look to exit at about 1.3630 where it hovered for 7 sec for 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 10 ticks back to the S1 Pivot in 3 min. Then it stepped lower to a final peak of 14 more ticks that reached the S3 Mid Pivot in the next 33 min. After that it reversed for 11 ticks to the 50 SMA in 15 min.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 6.5.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Jun 192014

6/5/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.10% (0.15% cut)
Actual: 0.15%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.3608 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3585 – 0745:02 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3650 – 0745:34 (1 min)
)))65 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.3594 – 0745:52 (1 min)
)))-56 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3632 – 0746:19 (2 min)
)))38 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3558 – 0750 (5 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.3575 – 0755 (10 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 1.3576 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 1.3640 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The ECB decided to cut the Minimum Bid Rate from 0.25% to 0.15% which was less than the expected cut to 0.10%. This resulted in a very volatile reaction as expected. It initially fell to hit the S1 Pivot for 23 ticks to fall short of the buy tier, then reversed to hit the sell tier with about 8-9 ticks to spare as it crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it fell 56 ticks in the next 18 sec and hovered in vicinity of the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have allowed an exit for about 40 or more ticks with ease. It reversed for 38 ticks after that to cross the R1 Pivot, then fell for a 2nd peak of 27 more ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot. After that it reversed for only 17 ticks as it tamed down to trade sideways near the S2 Pivot.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 6.17.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/17/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 35.2
Actual: 29.8
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3580 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3573 – 0500:09 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3583 – 0501:50 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3563 – 0546 (46 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3576 – 0616 (76 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3570 (just above the 50 SMA) / 1.3563 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3589 (no SMA / Pivot near)/1.3595 (just above the R1 Pivot / HOD)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a large margin of 5.4 points. This caused a short move of 7 ticks initially in 9 sec that started above the OOD and 13 SMA and fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA. This would have fallen short of the inner long entry by about 3 ticks, so cancel the order after 20 sec. After the peak, it reversed for 10 ticks on the next bar for a typical reaction. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 44 min as it reached the PP Pivot. After that it reversed for 13 ticks in 30 min.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 6.23.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 062014

6/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 49.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.5
Actual: 48.2
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3613
1st Peak @ 1.3602 – 0301 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.3607 – 0302 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3596 – 0312 (12 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3607 – 0329 (29 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a negligible upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.3 points below the forecast with a negligible downward revision. All of this served to cause a relatively small short spike of 11 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3605 with 5 ticks of slippage then seen it hover around your fill point before falling later. Since this report looks for a 2nd peak very often and the news was very bearishly biased, it would be wise to be patient and wait for a fall to 1.3600 or 1.3598 with the R1 Mid Pivot. It achieved a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks 11 min later as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 17 min, crossing the 50 SMA as it headed into the German report release.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 6.23.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 062014

6/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.7
Actual: 52.4
Previous Revision: -0.6 to 52.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.8
Actual: 54.8
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 56.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3605
1st Peak @ 1.3594 – 0331 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3592 – 0334 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.3602 – 0350 (20 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.3 points below the forecast to with a moderate downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.0 points below the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision to cause a small short spike of 11 ticks that eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3601 with no slippage, then seen it hover around the fill point for most of the bar before a push lower late in the :31 bar. A target at 1.3596 or 97 would have been prudent just below the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot for about 4-5 ticks. After a brief dip to 1.3592 on the :34 bar, it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 16 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 6.24.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Jul 072014

6/24/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 110.3
Actual: 109.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3609
1st Peak @ 1.3598 – 0400:36 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.3621 – 0411 (11 min)
23 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.6 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint but still remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a slow developing short spike of 11 ticks started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the 200 SMA, OOD, and PP Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3605 with no slippage, then seen it fall to 1.3601 and initially struggle with the PP Pivot before it made a secondary push lower for another 3 ticks after 20 sec. Look to exit at about 1.3599 just below the PP Pivot for 6 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 23 ticks back to the R2 Mid Pivot in 10 min. Then it traded sideways and eventually trended higher.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Jul 172014

7/3/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.15%
Actual: 0.15%
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION-NO FILL)
Started @ 1.3655 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Bar span 1.3655 – 1.3657 – 0746 (1 min)
2 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3637 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 1.3627 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3675 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 1.3685 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.15% and took no further significant action in the aftermath of the cut last month. This resulted in a yawner with no impulse whatsoever as the expectations were completely met. With no blast after 20 sec, cancel the order.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 7.15.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 272014

7/15/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 28.9
Actual: 27.1
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3608 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3597 – 0500:28 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3602 – 0501:10 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3590 – 0513 (13 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.3602 – 0554 (54 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3599 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 1.3589 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3617 (just above the 200 SMA)/1.3624 (just above the PP Pivot / OOD)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of only 1.8 points. This caused a short move of 11 ticks initially in 28 sec that started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 2 ticks to spare. It appears the British CPI from 30 min earlier was still causing a bearish sentiment to weigh on the market as the reaction was quite strong for a narrow offset, and did not want to reverse more than a few ticks. Look to exit quickly in this situation with 2-3 ticks of profit as it hovered near 1.3601 for over 3 min. After that, it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot in the next 12 min. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 41 min as it slowly climbed to the S2 Pivot.

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