6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016
Mar 182016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 1.8%
Previous revision: +0.2% to -1.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual: 4.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -5.0%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008892
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008877 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Hovering around 0.008878

Pullback to 0.008874 – 0831:27 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008888 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.008881 – 0838 (8 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008896 – 0842 (12 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008880 (just below the LOD) / 0.008872 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008902 (just below the 200 SMA/OOD) / 0.008909 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.008880 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: early conservative exit at 0.008879 – 1 tick loss or move wait for the delayed reversal for 7 ticks at 0.008887.
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008899 – move lower

Notes: All aspects of the report were moderately bullish, so it fell decisively for 15 ticks then took 2 min before starting to reverse. Patience would be okay in this scenario as this report still likes to reverse, but the consistent bias of the results kept it near the S3 Mid pivot for a bit.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016
Mar 182016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_23_2016

2/23/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 97.4
Actual: 92.2
Previous revision: -0.3 to 97.8
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008910
1st Peak @ 0.008914 – 1000:05 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.008908 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008929 – 1020 (20 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008920 – 1028 (28 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008913 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008914 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008918 (just above the 100 SMA)

Notes: Reaction was surprisingly dull possibly due to the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA on top of the origin. You would have been faced with an exit at breakeven after the fill. Then it piddled around on the R1 Mid Pivot for 5 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot.

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016
Mar 172016
 

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.0%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7256
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7249 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7253 – 0830:14 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7244 – 0831:27 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7251 – 0833 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7225 – 0848 (18 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7235 – 0900 (30 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7236 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.7276 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Good setup with Rtl sales conflicting with the CPI, but the reaction was too small and turned into a short trend.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016
Mar 152016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_16_2016

2/16/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.1
Actual: 1.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 9164.0
1st Peak @ 9160.0 – 0500:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 9171.0 – 0500:22 (1 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 9114.0 – 0512 (12 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 9154.0 – 0524 (24 min)
80 ticks

Expected Fill: 9161.0 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: stopped at 9166.0 – 10 ticks loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Indecisive initially as the report was close to matching and it only fell 8 ticks then snapped back. Still, remember this report nearly always goes for a 2nd peak of about 60 ticks within 20 min. This case is no different as it used the resistance of the 20 SMA to drive it lower to the S1 Pivot in 11 min for 100 ticks.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.87M
Actual: 3.88M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.53M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.04M
Actual: -1.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 37.23
1st Peak @ 37.75 – 1031:58 (2 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 37.43 – 1035 (5 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 38.02 – 1039 (9 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 37.39 – 1055 (25 min)
63 ticks

Expected Fill: 37.36 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.74 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 37.63 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Moderate long spike peaked quickly at the R1 Pivot then backed off before pulling back in the next min to reclaim the R1 Pivot. After a reversal to the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak. Then it reversed to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.60M
Actual: 10.37M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.20M
Actual: 2.88M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 34.36
1st Peak @ 33.81 – 1030:14 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 34.08 – 1030:45 (1 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 33.59 – 1033 (3 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 33.98 – 1035 (5 min)
39 ticks

Double Bottom @ 33.56 – 1041 (11 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 35.17 – 1111 (41 min)
161 ticks

Expected Fill: 34.26 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 33.82 – 44 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 33.87 (just below the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Moderate short spike peaked fell to eclipse the OOD then hovered before reversing due to the support of the Major SMAs. Then it fell for a 2nd peak as the large gain on crude drove it to the LOD / S1 Pivot. After the double bottom, great reversal trade opportunity as the support level held.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2_24_2016

2/24/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.43M
Actual: 3.50M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.03M
Actual: -2.24M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.71M
Actual: -1.66M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.92
1st Peak @ 31.34 – 1030:28 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 30.78 – 1031:35 (2 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 31.58 – 1042 (12 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 30.94 – 1054 (24 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 31.27 – 1100 (30 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 30.76 – 1118 (48 min)
51 ticks

Expected Fill: 31.06 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 31.33 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 31.31 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Moderate long spike peaked at the OOD then hovered before reversing. Then a large reversal to the 3 Major SMAs before a 2nd Peak to breach the HOD. Then it fell strongly off of the HOD to the S2 Mid Pivot.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2_18_2016

2/18/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 3.92M
Actual: 2.15M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.50M
Actual: 3.04M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.50M
Actual: 1.40M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 33.88
1st Peak @ 33.27 – 1100:22 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 33.67 – 1103 (3 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 32.75 – 1110 (10 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 33.20 – 1117 (17 min)
45 ticks

Double Bottom @ 32.72 – 1136 (36 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 33.38 – 1211 (71 min)
66 ticks

Expected Fill: 33.75 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 33.28 – 47 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 33.53 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Nice healthy short spike of 61 ticks would have yielded up to 47 ticks of profit after 22 sec. After a reversal, it fell for a nice 2nd peak to the area of the PP Pivot. Several opportunities for trades: sell the :03 bar above the OOD, buy just above the PP Pivot or at 1110 or 1136, or sell just below the R1 Mid Pivot at 1117.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016
Mar 132016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_18_2016

2/18/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -154B
Actual: -158B
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.898
1st Peak @ 1.877 – 1030:33 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.911 – 1046 (16 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 1.877 – 1124 (54 min)
34 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: After a big move on at 10:29:59, we saw no departure more than 10 ticks until 18 sec after the release, so cancel the order.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016
Mar 082016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -82B
Actual: -70B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.051
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1031:17 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 2.029 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.983 – 1128 (58 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 2.003 – 1141 (71 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.041 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.008 – 33 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.008 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Fairly Stable short spike offered a rare no slippage fill then would have targeted the S1 Pivot nicely after about 1.5 min. After a small reversal, it turned into a slow downtrend to gather another 24 ticks and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot.

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