CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016
Feb 232016
 

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2_3_2016

2/3/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.76M
Actual: 7.79M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.70M
Actual: 5.94M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.10M
Actual: -0.78M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.35
1st Peak @ 29.81 – 1030:34 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 30.18 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.74 – 1036 (6 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 31.23 – 1047 (17 min)
149 ticks

Pullback to 30.57 – 1051 (21 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 31.70 – 1102 (32 min)
113 ticks

Pullback to 30.98 – 1109 (39 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 30.18 (short)
Slippage: 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 29.82 – 36 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 29.85 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike on broad based supply sided news. After the small 2nd peak it found support on the OOD and reversed strongly. As it stepped higher, it used the 13/20 SMAs as support.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016
Feb 232016
 

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.55M
Actual: -0.75M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.42M
Actual: 1.26M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.57M
Actual: 1.28M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 28.06
1st Peak @ 28.98 – 1030:58 (1 min)
92 ticks

Reversal to 28.62 – 1032 (2 min)
36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.22 – 1033 (3 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 27.86 – 1044 (14 min)
136 ticks

Pullback to 28.38 – 1051 (21 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 27.48 – 1139 (69 min)
90 ticks

Expected Fill: 28.20 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 28.97 – 77 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 28.68 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable long spike due to the rare draw on crude. Still after a 2nd peak it collapsed strongly in 11 min to the 100 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1.27.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1.27.2016
Feb 222016
 

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1_27_2016

1/27/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.28M
Actual: 8.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.55M
Actual: 3.46M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.94M
Actual: -4.06M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.66
1st Peak @ 31.13 – 1030:24 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 30.66 – 1030:54 (1 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 31.76 – 1046 (16 min)
110 ticks

Reversal to 31.08 – 1057 (27 min)
68 ticks

Final Peak @ 32.84 – 1221 (111 min)
218 ticks

Reversal to 31.82 – 1319 (169 min)
102 ticks

Expected Fill: 30.83 (long)
Slippage: 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 31.12 – 29 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 31.02 (just above the 100/50 SMAs)

Notes: Another long reaction in spite of supply sided news. It found resistance above the 100/50 SMAs and S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit as it hovered with at least 20 ticks. After a reversal, turned into a long trend over the next 2 hrs for over 200 ticks riding the 13 SMA.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1.21.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1.21.2016
Feb 222016
 

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1_21_2016

1/21/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.81M
Actual: 3.98M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.38M
Actual: 4.56M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.13M
Actual: -1.03M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 28.39
1st Peak @ 28.63 – 1100:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 28.29 – 1101:00 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.41 – 1109 (9 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 28.92 – 1113 (13 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 30.25 – 1209 (69 min)
186 ticks

Reversal to 29.53 – 1225 (30 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 28.55 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 28.55 – breakeven (likely exit 28.47 – 8 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 28.90 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Small initial move that would have hovered at the fill point for 5 sec before slipping away. Tighten the stop to less than 10 ticks. After the initial reaction, it turned into a long trend that gained nearly 200 ticks in a little more than an hour as it rode the 13 SMA upward.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016
Feb 222016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7189 – shift up 4 ticks to 0.7193
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7165 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))-28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7181 – 1931:49 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7173 – 1933 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7193 – 1936 (6 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7173 – 2005 (35 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7197 – 2022 (52 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7181 (on the LOD) / 0.7170 (in between the S1/ S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 0.7204 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7213 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7181 and 0.7170 – both long tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7180 – 9 ticks total
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7187 – on the 200 SMA – move lower

Notes: Very disappointing retail sales numbers likely conflicted with the concurrent RBA Policy Statement. This caused an outer tier fill with a small reversal initially followed by more after a few min. Then swings of about 20 ticks followed for the next hour or so.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.2.2016

 Building Approvals, Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.2.2016
Feb 222016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_2_2016

2/2/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.45B
Actual: -3.54B
Previous Revision: +0.18B to -2.73B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7026
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7037 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7018 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.6990 – 1955 (25 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 0.7005 – 2008 (38 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7019 (in between the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA) / 0.7011 (in between the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD)
Short entries – 0.7033 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7042 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7033 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7019 – 14 ticks (inner long tier)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7019 (inner long tier unmoved)

Notes: Nice conflict with the Trade balance missing the forecast and an equally offsetting Bldg Permits. This caused an ideal whipsaw for the Trap Trade to capture 14 ticks with the inner tiers in 12 sec. After that it continued to fall as the Trade Balance results held sway.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016
Feb 212016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_1_2016

6A 03-16 (Second) 2_1_2016

2/1/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7088 – shift 5 ticks higher to 0.7093
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7124 – 2230:05 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7089 – 2230:28 (1 min)
)))-35 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7110 – 2231:02 (2 min)
)))21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7099 – 2231:31 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7116 – 2233 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.7070 – 2251 (21 min)
46 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7073 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7058 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7114 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.7125 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7114 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7090 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7093 – just below the OOD / 100 SMA

Notes: The initial long spike would have peaked in between the 2 short entries for an inner tier fill. Then it quickly dropped to the origin area to allow up to 24 ticks to be captured. After a few more swings, it eventually drifted lower.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016
Feb 212016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_3_2016

2/3/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 193K
Actual: 057K
Previous revision: +10K to 267K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9473.0
1st Peak @ 9498.5 – 0816:09 (2 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 9455.0 – 0826 (11 min)
87 ticks

Final Peak @ 9574.0 – 0923 (68 min)
202 ticks

Reversal to 9346.0 – 1031 (136 min)
456 ticks

Expected Fill: 9476.5 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 9497.0 – 41 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9493.0 (35 ticks)

Notes: Large moves spanning over 2 hrs after the report.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016

 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016
Feb 212016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_3_2016

2/3/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.1
Actual: 53.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008436
1st Peak @ 0.008464 – 1001:50 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.008444 – 1006 (6 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008522 – 1031 (31 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 0.008462 – 1048 (48 min)
60 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008439 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008463 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008452 (in between the R4 / R4 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Bullish report was assisted by a strong uptrend in the market to deliver a large 1st and final peak. The 1st peak reached the R4 Pivot, then once breached, no resistance barrier is left. Due to the large move from 1028 – 1031, it reversed strongly.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016
Feb 212016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_1_2016

2/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 48.2
Previous revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008283
1st Peak @ 0.008289 – 1000:42 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008294 – 1003 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008275 – 1014 (14 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Only moved 2 ticks away from the origin until 22 sec after the release, so cancel the order on the dull move. It eventually gained 6 ticks then another 5 ticks on a 2nd peak after 3 min before reversing as the overall long trend found resistance after crossing the R1 Pivot with the R2 Mid Pivot looming above.

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