Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 12.9.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

12/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 377.00
1st Peak @ 373.75 – 1201:32 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 376.50 – 1206 (6 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 370.25 – 1237 (37 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 374.75 – 1417 (137 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 375.75 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 374.00 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 371.50 (below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move up after small spike

Notes: Unusual reaction that was slow to break and about half the size of normal.

3/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’03 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 131’30 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’01 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 131’26 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’00 – 0849 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’31 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 131’27 (in between the LOD and S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’07 (just below the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 132’11 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Most of the news was positive with core retail sales and claims while the broader reading matched and we saw downward previous revisions. This caused a short move of 5 ticks in 15 sec that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then backed off to hover between the fill point and +2 ticks. Upon noticing the lack of conflict in the news, look to exit with 1 tick of profit. After the :31 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 2 bars to the S1 Pivot, then achieved a reversal of 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA in the next 16 min. After that it trickled lower for a double bottom, then reversed into a long rally after the opening bell for the US session.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 334K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009748 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009733 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009742 – 0830:36 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.009733 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009744 – 0850 (20 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009727 – 0922 (52 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009737 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009729 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009760 (on the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009769 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 19K less jobs than the forecast coupled with a mildly bullish retail sales report. This caused a short spike of 15 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the PP Pivot closer to the bottom. This would have filled your inner long entry with 4 ticks to spare, then backed off to hover between 0.009741 and 42 for 10 sec allowing for an exit with 4-5 ticks quickly. If you let it continue, you would have seen it fall for a double bottom twice after the fill, then reverse for 11 ticks in the next 18 min. This would have allowed for a patient 7 ticks to be captured near the 50 SMA. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks, crossing the OOD and S1 Mid Pivot after 30 min.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 9.3.2013

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

9/3/2013 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 58.4
Actual: 59.1
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.5584
1st Peak @ 1.5604 – 0431 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.5584 – 0433 (3 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 1.5598 – 0437 (7 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5566 – 0507 (37 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 0.7 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 20 ticks that started on the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD, then broke out to cross the R2 Pivot. It hovered between 1.5596 and 1.5600 for the entire :31 bar allowing for an exit at about 1.5598. After the :31 bar, it reversed for 20 ticks back to the origin and R2 Mid Pivot in the next 2 bars. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in the next 4 min before falling for a larger reversal of 32 ticks in the next 30 min to the R1 Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.2.2013

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

10/2/2013 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 60.1
Actual: 58.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6196
1st Peak @ 1.6184 – 0432 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6195 – 0438 (8 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6182 – 0443 (13 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.6220 – 0511 (41 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.2 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 12 ticks that started on the 50 SMA, then broke out to cross the 100 SMA and hit the OOD/S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit at or below the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 additional ticks in the next 5 bars to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 38 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.4.2013

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

11/4/2013 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 58.9
Actual: 59.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5936
1st Peak @ 1.5949 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5961 – 0448 (18 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.5944 – 0459 (29 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly better than the forecast with 0.5 pts offset. This caused a long move for 13 ticks that started on the 50 SMA, then broke out to cross the 13/20 SMAs and extend the HOD. Look to exit in between 1.5942 and 1.5945 where it hovered for most of the bar. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks 4 min later followed by a reversal of 7 ticks and a final peak of 12 more ticks after 18 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 11 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 12.3.2013

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

12/3/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 59.3
Actual: 62.6
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.6393
1st Peak @ 1.6419 – 0431 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.6397 – 0434 (4 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 1.6417 – 0455 (25 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.6394 – 0517 (18 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 3.3 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 26 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs , then broke out to cross the R1 Pivot. Look to exitat about 1.6415 after it hit the R1 Pivot and started to back off. After the peak, it reversed back to the 13 SMA on the next 3 bars for 22 ticks. Then it climbed 20 ticks in the next 21 min in a failed attempt at a 2nd peal to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. Then we saw a reversal for 23 ticks in 18 min back to the 100 SMA.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.4.2013

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

2/4/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 61.6
Actual: 64.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6294
1st Peak @ 1.6336 – 0432 (2 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6316 – 0444 (14 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6339 – 0516 (46 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.6321 – 0538 (68 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 3.0 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 42 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs and S1 Mid Pivot, then broke out to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. Due to the strong divergence, the reaction was more sustainable and hovered around the R1 Mid Pivot allowing for an easy exit above 1.6330. After the peak, it traded sideways on the R1 Mid Pivot for about 9 min before falling to the 20 SMA and PP Pivot for a total of 20 ticks on the :44 bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks 30 min later before it reversed for 18 ticks 20 min later.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 3.4.2014

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

3/4/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 63.6
Actual: 62.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6705
1st Peak @ 1.6692 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.6706 – 0433 (3 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.6668 – 0504 (34 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6697 – 0556 (86 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.0 pts offset. This caused a small short spike of 13 ticks that started above the 50/100 SMAs, then broke out to cross the SMAs and nearly reach the 200 SMA. Look to exit at about 1.6694 where it hovered in the middle of the bar. After the peak, we saw an immediate reversal for 14 ticks back to the origin 2 min later. Then it descended into a large 2nd peak of 29 more ticks in the next 30 min. After that we saw a reversal yield 29 ticks in the next 52 min back to the 200 SMA.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 9.1.2013

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

9/1/2013 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.1
DULL REACTION
Started @ 3.2880
1st Peak @ 3.2850 – 2146 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.2880 – 2147 (2 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1 pts, causing a dull reaction short of only 6 ticks that hit the 50 SMA / R3. It was fairly tame in its movement. Look to exit at about 3.3855 when it hovered near the bottom. After that it reversed back to the origin on the next bar, then remained it a tight range above the R3 Pivot.

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