Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 102016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -1.0%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 4.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008899
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008908 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008897 – 0833:58 (4 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @0.008917 – 0847 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008907 – 0859 (6 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:10-12/20-24
Long entries – 0.008888 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.008877 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008910 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008921 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a.
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting report caused a quick spike that reversed. Unfortunately the spike was a few ticks too small to breach the inner short tier. Cancel the order on the miss. After a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot, it rebounded for a 2nd peak to the OOD.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 102016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_18_2016

3/18/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.1
Actual: 90.0
Previous Revision: +1.0 to 91.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008993
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008986 – 1000:47 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008989 – 1000:56 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008984 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.08996 – 1010 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008987 (just below the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.008978 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008999 (just above the OOD) / 0.009009 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Movement only strayed 3 ticks from the anchor point/origin up to 40 sec after the release, so cancel the order. Nice reversal after support held below the 50/100 SMAs.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016

Official Bank Rate Comments Off

Apr 102016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_17_2016

3/17/2016 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0800 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.4366
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4359 – 0800:01 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4391 – 0800:36 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.4373 – 0800:48 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.4406 – 0803 (3 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 1.4378 – 0811 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.4429 – 0816 (16 min)
51 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4357 (just above the 100 SMA) / 1.4348 (just below the 50 SMA)
Short entries – 1.4375 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.4386 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: Both tiers short – avg short 1.4380.5
Best Initial Exit: 1.4374 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4366 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled in 23 sec, then it hovered briefly at the HOD before reversing to allow about 10 ticks total to be captured. Then it stepped higher before reversing to the 100 SMA.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

GBP Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 102016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 GBP Retail Sales (0530 EDT)
Forecast: -0.7%
Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4089
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4079 – 0530:05 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4089 – 0531:00 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.4066 – 0537 (7 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.4089 – 0548 (18 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4144 – 0647 (77 min)781 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:25/40
Long entries – 1.4062 (just above the LOD) / 1.4047 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4114 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.4131 (just below the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order as it only strayed 10 ticks from the origin for the first min. Then it slowly drifted short for 13 more ticks before a long slow reversal.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

CPI Comments Off

Apr 102016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.4%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -1.1%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.3%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4284
1st Peak @ 1.4257 – 0530:00 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4314 – 0546 (16 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 1.4271 – 0619 (49 min)
43 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4272 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4259 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4255 (just below the LOD) – move higher to about 1.4260 after hovering

Notes: Nice short spike that hit the LOD then pulled away a bit and hovered near the low for 30 sec before reversing. This would have allowed 10-13 ticks to be captured easily with or without a profit target. Since the market had crossed the S4 Mid Pivot in a big selloff earlier, the LOD was likely solid. Then it reversed strongly in the next 15 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot before pulling back.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Apr 092016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0530 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.0%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -8.8K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -18.0K
Previous Revision: -13.6K to -28.4K
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.4127
1st Peak @ 1.4139 – 0530:31 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4128 – 0530:35 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.4140 – 0534 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4110 – 0542 (12 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The initial second movement would have been contained within the 10 tick bracket for the first 25 sec, so cancel the order. After dealing with resistance from the S1 Pivot for the first 4 min it reversed nicely for 30 ticks to the 200 SMA.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Apr 052016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016 6A 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 11.6K
Employment Change Actual: 0.3K
Previous Revision: +0.5K to -7.4K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7533
1st Peak @ 0.7549 – 2030:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7513 – 2030:01 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7556 – 2030:37 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7536 – 2036 (6 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7588 – 2104 (34 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.7559 – 2134 (64 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7547 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: stopped/reversed at 0.7522 – 25 tick loss (5 slippage)…then exit at 0.7522 at breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting results caused true indecision that saw the “Reverse if Stopped” feature cause more potential for harm. It spiked long then reversed quickly to stop out and fill short. Then it hovered/chopped +/- 6 ticks of the fill so either exit or tighten the stop to the OOD area. After the initial instability it trended long.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3.14.2016

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Apr 052016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3_14_2016

3/14/2016 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7486
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.7484 to 0.7485 – 2031 (1 min)
)))1 tick span
—————-

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7479 (just below the OOD) / 0.7470 -just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7493 (just above the HOD) / 0.7501 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: No reaction for a 2nd month in a row so cancel the trade. This did make a slow delayed reaction to climb to the R1 Mid Pivot on the :32 bar then hovered making a possible short entry opportunity as a reversal is likely. It then fell 25 ticks in 10 min and another 18 ticks in 25 more min.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016 ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 161’05
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’23 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’07 – 1400:05 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Pullback to 161’24 – 1400:12 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’12 – 1400:51 (1 min)
)))12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 162’07 – 1409 (9 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 161’02 – 1446 (46 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 161’27 – 1516 (76 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 160’30 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots) / 160’22 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 161’13 (on the 200 SMA) / 161’21 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 161’13 and 161’21 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 161’07 – 16 ticks (if quick) or 161’12 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’07 (on the 50 SMA) – move higher

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled for an average short position of 161’17. Then it stabbed lower offering 16 total ticks for about 3 sec, pulled back to the peak and reversed again to almost the same area offering 8-10 total ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 16 more ticks in 8 min to the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot before a 37 ticks reversal that stepped down to the S1 Pivot / LOD.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

CPI Comments Off

Apr 032016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016 ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 161’31
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’20 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’25 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 161’14 – 0833 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 161’23 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 161’09 – 0841 (11 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 161’20 – 0902 (32 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 161’25 (just below the 200 SMA) / 161’18 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 162’05 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 162’12 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 161’25 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 161’25 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’27 (just above the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: Report caused a mostly decisive short reaction to offer a breakeven exit. The 200 SMA and PP Pivot on top of each other will normally cause a recoil, which did happen but was too short lived. It fell 11 ticks and hovered for 30 sec. You could have moved the outer tier up to 161’21 for a fill as a reversal is likely. Then it reversed 5 ticks and hovered just below the 200 SMA for 22 sec. Look to exit at breakeven or 161’24 for a 1 tick loss (2 tick net profit with the adjusted outer tier fill). Then it stepped lower for a 2nd and final peak.

Older Entries Newer Entries