US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 6.10.2016

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 052016

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 6_10_2016

6/10/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 427.25
1st Peak @ 437.00 – 1200:28 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 430.50 – 1200:37 (1 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 433.75 – 1203 (3 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 424.25 – 1207 (7 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 431.25 – 1209 (9 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 420.00 – 1223 (23 min)
45 ticks

Expected Fill: 430.00 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 436.75 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 435.00 (just above the R3 Pivot), 436.75 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot), 438.75 (just above the R4 Pivot)

Notes: Beautiful long spike that was stepped up and hovered before reversing strongly after 30 sec. Be sure to take precautions upon the hovering below the R4 Mid Pivot.

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 5.10.2016

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 052016

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 5_10_2016

5/10/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 368.75
1st Peak @ 381.50 – 1200:45 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 378.25 – 1201:20 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.75 – 1202:29 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 376.25 – 1208 (8 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: 371.00 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 381.25 – 41 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 375.50 (just above the R1 Pivot) and 379.00 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Beautiful long spike that was stepped up slowly and was stable to allow up to 40+ ticks.

CL 06-16 (1 Min) 4.20.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 172016

CL 06-16 (1 Min) 4_20_2016

4/20/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.40M
Actual: 2.08M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.22M
Actual: -0.11M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.30M
Actual: -3.55M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 41.55
1st Peak @ 41.88 – 1030:34 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 41.67 – 1030:59 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 42.17 – 1033 (3 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 41.82 – 1039 (9 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 44.07 – 1308 (158 min)
252 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.65 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 41.87 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.90 (35 ticks) and 42.16 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Big draw on heating oil while the crude and gas figures were narrowly offsetting. This caused a racheting long move for 33 ticks then another 29 ticks in the next 2 min. A no slippage fill offered up to 22 ticks early, or about 50 with patience. It settled into a huge long trend after conquering the PP Pivot that continued for 2.5 hrs.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.15.2016

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

May 172016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4_15_2016

4/15/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 91.9
Actual: 89.7
Previous Revision: +1.0 to 91.0
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0091910
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.0091990 – 1000:12 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.0091950 – 1000:39 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.0092015 – 1000:55 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.0091975 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.0092210 – 1021 (21 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.0092060 – 1037 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.0091880 (No Pivot / SMA near) / 0.0091830 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.0091945 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.0091985 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – 0.0091945 and 0.0091985 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.0091950 – 6 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.0091950 (just above the 200 SMA) and 0.0091920 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled in a staggered manner as it stepped higher in 12 sec. Then you would have had a 10 sec window to exit with 2-6 total ticks after 30 sec. If you did not exit there, it would have gone against you then come back to hover about 4-6 ticks in the red. Then it claimed a 2nd peak after 20 min to the R2 Pivot followed by a reversal to the 50 SMA.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162016

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.85M
Actual: 6.63M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: 0.51M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 41.66
1st Peak @ 41.87 – 1030:00 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 41.51 – 1030:17 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 42.00 – 1031:11 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 41.26 – 1034 (4 min)
74 ticks

Final Peak @ 42.42 – 1102 (32 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 41.74 – 1130 (60 min)
68 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.79 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.17 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.92 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Conflicting report caused an unstable reaction. You would have filled long on the initial spike, then stopped 4 sec later at 41.64. It cycled again before climbing for a 2nd peak after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot, then reversed to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4.6.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162016

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4_6_2016

4/6/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.15M
Actual: -4.94M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.97M
Actual: 1.44M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.33M
Actual: 1.80M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 36.82
1st Peak @ 37.18 – 1030:12 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 36.63 – 1033 (3 min)
55 ticks

2nd Peak @ 37.46 – 1045 (15 min)
64 ticks

Final Peak @ 37.81 – 1146 (76 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 37.55 – 1215 (105 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 36.95 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.17 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 37.08 (just above the R3 Pivot) and 37.16 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Big draw on oil offset by a moderate gain on the products. This caused a long spike of 36 ticks to the HOD, then a reversal 1 min later, and finally a long fan that took over an hour to finalize. This would have allowed up to 20 or so ticks to be captured with a target on or just above the HOD. In the long trend, it used the 13/20 SMAs as a moving floor.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.3
Actual: 2.60/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’02 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 165’13 – 1301:47 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’08 – 1301:54 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’18 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 165’09 – 1319 (18 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’06 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 165’12 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’12 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, that peaked immediately on the S1 Mid Pivot. With an appropriate profit target, 6 ticks would have been captured. After that it achieved a 2nd peak for 5 more ticks at the PP Pivot, then reversed 9 ticks.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

CPI Comments Off

May 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 165’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’10 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 165’02 – 0830:44 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
Pullback to 165’09 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 164’21 – 0848 (18 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’29 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 164’23 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 165’10 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 165’126 (in between the S1 Mid, PP Pivots)

Expected Fill: 165’10 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 165’03 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’05 (in between the 100/50 SMAs)

Notes: Report caused a nice setup with a quick pop for 7 ticks to fill the inner short tier, then reversed 8 ticks to allow up to 7 ticks to be captured after about 45 sec. After that it pulled back then reversed 20 ticks in 16 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.90/2.5
Actual: 1.77/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’13 (1301)
1st Peak @ 165’21 – 1302:14 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 1305 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 165’19 – 1308 (7 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’28 – 1319 (18 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 165’23 – 1340 (39 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’15 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’21 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’18 (just above the 50 SMA) and 165’22 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Slow moving initially, but it turned into a nice spike of 8 ticks as it popped just before the :02 bar expired. This would have allowed up to 6 ticks to be captured when it stalled below the R1 Pivot. It achieved 2 more ticks before a 4 tick reversal and then climbed for a final peak as it rode the 13 SMA upward for another 5 ticks.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’00
1st Peak @ 165’11 – 0830:12 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’04 – 0833 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’17 – 0845 (15 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 164’28 – 0940 (70 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’04 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 165’10 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’10 (just above the PP Pivot) or 165’12 (on the HOD) – move lower

Notes: With all the results bearish and the PPI also in agreement, we saw a nice stable long spike of 11 ticks that climbed and hovered in between the PP Pivot and HOD. Look to exit at 165’09 or 10 with the hovering. After a 7 tick reversal it climbed to a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 14 min to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in about an hour.

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