10/8/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.54/2.7
Actual: 2.38/2.5
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 140’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 140’03 – 1302:32 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 140’06 – 1307:45 (7 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 140’02 – 1318 (17 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 140’06 – 1322 (21 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 140’07 (just below the PP Pivot) / 140’03 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 140’16 (on the 100 SMA) / 140’19 (on the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for a large decisive spike of 8 ticks. This would have filled both of your long entries in a staggered fashion, then hovered near the outer tier fill point for nearly 5 min. Be patient and wait for a small reversal, but move your stop to 140’00. It rebounded 4 ticks after 5 min to reach the 13 SMA, then hovered for about 1 min to allow an easy exit with 1 tick of profit. Then it continued to trade between the LOD and 140’06 until the FOMC meeting minutes at 1400.

11/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.38/2.5
Actual: 2.37/2.5
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’05 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’01 – 1301:36 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’04 – 1302:36 (2 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 141’00 – 1309 (8 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 141’06 – 1322 (21 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 141’01 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 140’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 141’10 (just above the 100 SMA) / 141’13 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest was unchanged from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 4 ticks to the R1 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry if it was placed at 141’01, but not lower. It reversed 3 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot after about a minute to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 4 ticks in the next 6 min before reversing 6 ticks to the R2 Pivot and 50 SMA. After that it continued to trend lower to resume the sentiment from before the auction.

1/13/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.21/3.0
Actual: 1.93/2.6
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 148’07 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 147’27 – 1302:12 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 147’31 – 1304:52 (4 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 148’04 – 1311 (10 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 147’27 – 1314 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’22 – 1355 (54 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 148’02 (just below the 100 SMA) / 147’31 (just below the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 148’12 (just above the OOD) / 148’15 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell very strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for a large move of 12 ticks to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot. This would have filled both tiers of your long entries for an average long position of 148’00.5. Then it reversed 4 ticks in 2 min to the outer tier position and another 5 ticks in the next 6 min to the 50 SMA. Due to the crossing of the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot and the size of the move, it would be a safe decision to be patient for a reversal to breakeven or a little profit. A quick exit would have yielded a loss of 3 total ticks, but a patient exit would have allowed up to 7 total ticks to be captured. After the reversal it pulled back for a double bottom in 3 min before reversing 27 ticks in 41 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot.

3/11/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.00/2.6
Actual: 2.14/2.7
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 158’22 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 158’30 – 1304:28 (4 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 158’25 – 1307:50 (7 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 159’23 – 1332 (31 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 159’17 – 1350 (49 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 158’18 (match the low from 1251) / 158’14 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 158’26 or 27 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’29 or 30 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio ticked up. This caused the ZB to pop long for 4 ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and all 3 Major SMAs. If you had placed your short entry at 158’26 it would have barely filled, otherwise it would have missed. Then if filled it would have allowed 1 tick of profit to be taken where it hovered just after the fill for over 30 sec. After that it peaked at 8 ticks after 4 min before reversing 5 ticks in 3 min to the 13 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 25 more ticks in 24 min after crossing the R2 Pivot. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 18 min to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways.

4/8/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 164’22
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’26 – 1400:05 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’19 – 1400:44 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 164’30 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 164’10 – 1409 (9 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 164’29 – 1419 (19 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’17 (just below the 20 SMA) / 164’14 (just above the 50 SMA)
Short entries – 164’27 (just below the OOD) / 164’30 (just above the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was divided on when to hike rates (June or later). This caused a long spike of only 4 ticks that started a few sec premature and peaked 5 sec into the :01 bar. It lingered for only 3 sec to not allow a manual shifted entry before reversing, so cancel the order. It fell 7 ticks in about 40 sec before climbing for a 2nd peak of 4 more in 1 min as it eclipsed the OOD. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 7 min, crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the PP Pivot. After that it pulled back 19 ticks in 10 min to the OOD.