6/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.7
Actual: 2.46/2.7
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 148’01 (1301) (On the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 148’10 – 1301:35 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 148’06 – 1301:59 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 1304 (3 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 148’04 – 1310 (9 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 148’14 – 1322 (21 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 147’29 – 1357 (56 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 147’29 (just below the 200 SMA) / 147’26 (just above the 50/100 SMAs)
Short entries – 148’06 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 148’09 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 – 1:40 late. The highest yield rose considerably from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio stayed the same. This caused the ZB to spike long 9 ticks at 1301:35 then reverse 4 ticks in 24 sec. This would have filled both short entries making the average short position 148’07.5. It reversed to 148’06 and hovered for about 30 sec to allow 1-3 ticks to be captured. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 2 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 10 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 12 min before reversing 17 ticks in 35 min to the 200 SMA.

8/12/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.23/2.7
Actual: 2.12/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 159’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 158’28 – 1301:53 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 158’23 – 1306 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 159’03 – 1313 (12 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a healthy amount while the bid to cover ratio tapered. This caused the ZB to spike short 8 ticks as it started just above the R1 Mid Pivot and initiated the drop at 1301:34 and peaked 19 sec later. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 159’01 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover around 158’29 to allow a quick exit with 4 ticks. Then it continued to fall without a reversal for another 5 ticks in 4 min to the OOD and PP Pivot. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 7 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

10/7/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.7
Actual: 2.07/2.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 157’16 (1301)
1st Peak @ 157’11 – 1301:34 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 157’19 – 1301:48 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 157’11 – 1311 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 157’20 – 1324 (23 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’13 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: Stopped @ 157’16 – 3 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’09 (above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Rare whipsaw on a usually reliable safe report.

12/9/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.30/2.6
Actual: 2.23/2.6
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 154’27 – 1303:23 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 155’21 – 1313 (12 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 155’25 – 1334 (33 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 155’04 – 1353 (52 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’03 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 154’28 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’30 (below the 20 SMA)

Notes: Initial reaction fell against the uptrend causing a big reversal.

1/8/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.82/2.6
Actual: 3.01/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 128’15 (1301)
1st Peak @ 128’11 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 128’18 – 1307 (6 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 128’22 – 1359 (58 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose above 3.00 for the first time since May 2011. This caused the ZB to fall for a meager 4 ticks in 1 bar as it hit the S3 Pivot, then retreat back to where it started in a dull reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 128’12 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover within 1 tick on either side of the fill point late in the :02 bar and into the :03 bar. Look to exit at breakeven or 1 tick loss.  As is common in dull reactions on the 10-y, it reversed for 7 ticks to cross the 100 SMA and hit the S3 Mid Pivot, then fell again in an attempt for a 2nd peak that fell short by 1 tick of reaching the S3 Pivot. Then it rose for an 11 tick extended reversal just before the 1400 hour when the FOMC minutes were released.