1/9/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.65/3.0
Actual: 1.86/2.8
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 145’17 (1301)
1st Peak @ 145’07 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 145’18 – 1434 (93 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction after the FED commenced buying bonds. This caused the ZB to spike short for 10 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 145’14 with no slippage. Since it had to contend with all the major SMAs, the reaction spanned 5 min, but eventually eclipsed the 200 SMA by 2 ticks to bottom out. As this report normally averages 13-14 ticks and the minimum is 8 ticks, Look to exit at 145’09 +/- 1 tick for about 5 ticks at the 200 SMA and move the stop loss down to 145’17 (-3 ticks). It stayed stuck near the 200 SMA for about 20 min before reversing in the next hour for 11 ticks back to the origin.

11/7/2012 10-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 1.70/3.3
Actual: 1.68/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 150’18 (0801)
1st Peak @ 150’09 – 0802 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 150’03 – 0807 (6 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 150’14 – 0815 (14 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield dropped moderately from the previous auction. With more demand for the bonds, the yield fell, causing the ZB to spike short. With JOBB you would fill short at 150’15 with no slippage. Look for it to eclipse the 50 SMA and close out with 5 ticks. As it crossed on the 200 and 100 SMAs, this is a good place to enter a reversal trade. It bottomed out at 150’03, 4 ticks lower than the 200 SMA, then reversed to cross the 50 SMA for 11 ticks 8 min later.

09/12/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0531 HI time / 1131 EDT)
Previous: 2.83/2.4
Actual: 2.90/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’00 (0531)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0533 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0534 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 0630 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose minimally from the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. With less demand for the bonds, the yield rose, causing the ZB to spike long from sitting on the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’03. With the HOD established about 90 min earlier at 148’09, keep an eye on it as it approaches that threshold. As the :02 bar bounced off of 148’08 and the :03 bar garnered 1 more tick to touch the HOD, exit around 148’08 if possible for about 5 ticks. The resistance at 148’09 is strong as it caused the reversal nearly back to the 100 SMA. Then it oscillated between 148’01 and 148’06 for 30 min before trending higher. It hit a 2nd peak at 148’14 at the R2 Pivot right before the FED announced open ended QE3 which caused a nosedive. I did not list the final reversal due to the large move and lack of association to the auction.

07/11/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.4
Actual: 2.58/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’06 (0701)
1st Peak @ 152’12 – 0703 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 152’05 – 0709 (8 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 152’16 – 0730 (29 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 152’10 – 0750 (49 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 2.58 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. This caused a relatively tame reaction for the bonds, as the yield rose by only 6 ticks peaking at the start of the :03 bar. With JOBB you would fill long at 152’09, just above the 200/100 SMAs, then have seen arresting upward movement as it stalled 2 ticks above the fill. With the HOD 1 tick higher, the next bar rose to touch it, then fell. Close out with 1-3 ticks as it flirts with the HOD. After the 1st peak was achieved, it retreated to the origin, then traded sideways before the :28 – :30 bars climbed to a 2nd peak of only 10 ticks. The reversal was able to retreat to the 50 SMA for 6 ticks before rising again. All in all a relatively dull auction even with the record low yield.