Durable Goods | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jan 202016

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9_24_2015

9/24/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: -2.0%
Regular Actual: -2.0%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 2.2%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008380
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008375 – 0830:43 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008389 – 0833:13 (4 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008375 – 0855 (25 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008369 (in between the 100 SMA and R2 Pivot/200 SMA) / 0.008358 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008391 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008402 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner short tier and a mostly matching report.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.27.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jan 202016

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_27_2015

10/27/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.2%
Regular Forecast: -1.1%
Regular Actual: -1.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -2.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008319
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008325 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008319 – 0830:54 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008327 – 0831:58 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008306 – 0848 (18 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008307 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.008296 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008329 (just above the HOD) / 0.008342 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner short tier and a mostly matching report.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.25.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jan 202016

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_25_2015

11/25/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: 1.6%
Regular Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to -0.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008150
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008146 to 0.008151 – 0831 (1 min)
)))-4/+1 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008140 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008145 – 0909 (39 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008139 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008130 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008161 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 0.008173 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner long tier and a mostly matching report.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016

Durable Goods Comments Off

Feb 072016

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1_28_2016

1/28/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -1.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: -5.1%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -0.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008419
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008428 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008421 – 0830:19 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008433 – 0841 (11 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008413 – 0901 (31 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008407 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.008395 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008431 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.008439 (just above the OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner short tier. Nice reversal opportunity for a short entry at the PP Pivot

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.28.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Feb 122014

1/28/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -1.6%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 1.9%
Regular Actual: -4.3%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 3.4%
TRAP TRADE (LOSS – SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009701 (last price and the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009716 – 0830:01 (1 min)
15 ticks

Hovered near 0.009717 – 0830:20 (1 min)

2nd Peak @ 0.009728 – 0831:12 (2 min)
27 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009746 – 0841 (11 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.009726 – 0901 (31 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009689 (on the S2 Pivot) / 0.009683 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009713 (just above the S1 Pivot ) / 0.009720 (no SMA/Pivot within 10 ticks)

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish overall to be the worst setup for the new official trap trade. This caused a quick pop upward for 15 ticks in 1 sec, crossing the S1 Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled short at 0.009713, then seen it hover about 4 ticks above the peak for 20 sec. If you noticed the results and perceived that they were consistent and strongly bearish, the wise play would be to exit with a few ticks loss since the likelihood of a quick reversal is small. After the hovering, it jumped up another 12 ticks for a 2nd peak early on the :32 bar which would have filled the outer tier short order with no intervention, Then the stop for the average position would have been taken for a 12 tick loss. It continued to slowly edge higher without any noticeable reversal as it achieved a final peak of 45 ticks after 10 min, nearly reaching the OOD. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 20 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reaching the 50 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

10/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: 1.7%
Regular Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010273
1st peak @ 0.010260 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010283 – 0836 (6 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed and offsetting to bewilder the market. This caused a 13 tick unsustainable short spike that peaked on the :31 bar , crossing the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA while extending the LOD, leaving 14 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010267 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately and back off to hover around the fill point. Given the conflicting results and typical behavior of this report, look to exit near breakeven +/- 2 ticks. After the 1st peak, it continued reversing for the next 5 min to gain another 8 ticks, crossing the 100 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot, and reaching the 200 SMA. Then it fell again in a failed attempt at a 2nd peak that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.26.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

8/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.6%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -7.3%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 3.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010152
1st peak @ 0.010175 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010178 – 0849 (19 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.010163 – 0901 (31 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in overall bearish and disappointed the market. This caused a 30 tick long spike that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD, leaving 9 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010162 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately and start chopping while falling. A programmed target of 10 ticks would have filled, or if you are looking for an exit after the initial volatility, place a target above the R1 Pivot at about 0.010170 for 8 ticks which would have filled on the :32 bar. After the 1st peak, it continued to oscillate between the R1 Pivot and the HOD until it eventually snagged 3 more ticks after 18 min. When you see a trend like this with little gain on a 2nd peak after repeated attempts over 20 min, it is a good opportunity to trade the reversal as divergence is building. After the 2nd peak, it fell for 15 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA. After that, it slowly fell for the next few hours as the influence of the news wore off.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 9.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

9/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -7.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010153
1st peak @ 0.010166 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010150 – 0831 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010128 – 0912 (42 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly bearish and disappointed the market with a near match on the regular reading. This caused an unsustainable 13 tick long spike that peaked on the :31 bar, then reversed for 16 ticks immediately as an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010159 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak and reverse to hit the stop loss for a 6 tick loss with 1 tick of slippage. After 2 cycles from the extremes of the bar, it fell into a long slow developing reversal for another 22 ticks in the next 40 min, crossing the PP Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual: 3.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 3.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010269
Premature spike @ 0.010275 – 0830 (0 min)
6 ticks

1st peak @ 0.010239 – 0831 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.010255 – 0833 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010233 – 0902 (32 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.010262 – 0921 (51 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in overall bullish and impressed the market. This caused a 6 tick fake spike long followed by the true 30 tick short move that bottomed on the :31 bar, hitting the PP Pivot and OOD, leaving 7 ticks on the tail naked. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the fake spike, and then stopped out with a 5 tick loss. An activation time of :58 or :59 sec would have been ideal to catch the short move. After the 1st peak, it chopped sideways, struggling with the strong support of the PP Pivot, only able to garner another 6 ticks on a 2nd peak. Then it reversed back to the 100 SMA for 29 ticks 20 min later.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.3%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -1.5%
Regular Forecast: 1.6%
Regular Actual: 3.3%
Previous Revision: -1.2% to -6.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009858
1st Peak @ 0.009837 – 0831 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reverse to 0.009865 – 0840 (10 min)
28 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009915 – 1001 (91 min)
78 ticks

Notes: Report came in predominately bullish and impressed the market overall. This caused a 21 tick short move that bottomed on the :31 bar, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and the 200 SMA, leaving 5 ticks on the tail naked. Then it quickly reversed for 28 ticks in 10 min, back to the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.009853 with 1 tick of slippage just below the 200 SMA. Look to exit just below the R1 Mid Pivot for about 10 -12 ticks. This is also a good report to use a profit trigger of about 10 ticks. After the initial quick reversal, it fell to test the 200 SMA one more time, then it rallied for the next 75 min for an extended reversal of 75 ticks.

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