Durable Goods | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

4/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -1.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -2.9%
Regular Actual: -5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010052
1st Peak @ 0.010070 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 0.010049 – 0853 (19 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish and disappointing overall. This caused an 18 tick long move that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and hitting the HOD. Then it surrendered 12 ticks before achieving a double top on the :38 bar. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in 15 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reaching the 200 SMA. After a double bottom, it reversed for 31 ticks in about 10 min to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010058 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it popped up to 0.010070 early in the bar and retreated after that. This is a good report to use a profit trigger of about 10 ticks. If you were not quick enough to exit on the :31 bar with more than 5 ticks of profit, wait on the :32/ :33 bars for 5 or more ticks with the large naked wick on the :31 bar.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 3.26.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010607
1st Peak @ 0.010597 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 0.010620 – 0837 (7 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar though not as much as last month causing a quick spike and pullback for a small indecisive reaction. It shorted 10 ticks to nearly reach the LOD, then popped back up after 5 sec to return to the origin. The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive. Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010602 with 1 tick of slippage. If you were quick you could have secured up to 4 ticks, otherwise you would have been stopped with a 5 tick loss after about 35 sec.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 1.9%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010913
1st Peak @ 0.010917 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.010907 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010949 – 0840 (10 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 010932 – 0848 (18 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a 4 tick long move, followed by an immediate 10 tick reversal. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 0.010917 with no slippage, then you would have seen it reverse quickly to stop you out with a 6 tick loss with 1 tick of slippage. The :31 bar continued to be erratic bouncing between 0.010907 and 0.010919. Then the follow on reaction rallied 36 ticks for a 2nd peak.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1.28.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual: 1.3%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual: 4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.011006
1st Peak @ 0.010990 – 0832 (2 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 010981 – 0836 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 0.011039 – 1001 (91 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot, then found support at the PP Pivot initially. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.011000. Look to exit at or just below the PP Pivot around 0.010993 to be safe since the market was already trending lower and the PP Pivot is normally a very strong barrier. After the 1st peak, it retreated 8 ticks, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks only 3 min later. Then it double bottomed 10 min later before reversing 58 ticks in the next 75 min, riding the 13/20 SMAs.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 11.27.2012

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.012177
1st Peak @ 0.012161 – 0835 (5 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.012172 – 0840 (10 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.012178 – 0917 (47 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike started on the PP Pivot, then crossed the 50 SMA and eclipsed the S1 Pivot to bottom for 16 ticks on the :35 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.012171 with 2 ticks of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 8 ticks on the :32 bar as it crossed the S1 Pivot. After trickling down for a few more ticks, the reversal retreated up to the 50 SMA for 11 ticks in 5 min. Then after a failed attempt at a 2nd Peak, it reversed later for another 6 ticks to reach the 200 SMA in another 37 min.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 10.25.2012

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

10/25/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual: 2.0%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -2.1%
Regular Forecast: 7.1%
Regular Actual: 9.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -13.1%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.012476
1st Peak @ 0.012464 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.012480 – 0833 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.012452 – 0935 (65 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.012469 – 1003 (93 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in positive overall. The more influential core reading came in 1.2% better than expected with a downward revision to the previous report. This correlated with a strong regular reading exceeding the forecast by a greater margin than the core difference. This resulted in a short move of 12 ticks that hit the S4 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at 0.012471. Then look to exit with a handful of ticks after it bounced off of the S4 pivot it is unlikely to attempt that again being a strong level of support. It quickly reversed for 16 ticks in only 2 bars back to the 50 SMA. Then it trended mildly lower, riding the 50 SMA to eventually seek a 2nd peak 1 hr after the report for another 12 ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in about 30 min.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 082013

Reverse to 89.63 – 0849 (19 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 89.92 – 0918 (48 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish and disappointing overall. This caused a 14 tick short move that bottomed on the :32 bar to extend the LOD by 11 ticks. Then after a double bottom, it reversed for 31 ticks in about 10 min to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 89.40 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at the end of the :31 bar for about 5 ticks, or place your exit a few ticks lower. After the reversal, it attempted a 2nd Peak, but ran out of gas as the pit opened. Then it reversed long strongly for 60 ticks in about 20 min.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.26.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 95.59
1st Peak @ 95.52 – 0831 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.41 – 0838 (8 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 95.88 – 0918 (48 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing though not as much as last month causing a dull reaction. As long as you canceled the order within 38 sec, you would not have filled. Remember the rules state to cancel the order after 15 sec with no fill. The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive. This caused a dull 7 tick short move that achieved 11 more ticks after 8 min, eclipsing the 100 SMA. Then it reversed for a methodical rebound of 47 ticks in the next 40 min, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month. Even if you had filled short at 95.54, it would have stayed between 3 ticks in the red and 2 in the green for the next few bars, so it would not have been a significant loss.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.27.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:1.9%
Previous revision:-0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual:-5.2%
Previous Revision:-0.3% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 92.49
1st Peak @ 92.67 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 92.38 – 0831 (106 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a quick and unsustainable spike for 18 ticks, followed by a reversal of 29 ticks. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 92.57 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hit 92.67 and sharply retreat 20 ticks in 4 sec. If you closed out there, you would have taken a 10 ticks loss, otherwise your stop loss would have caught at 25 sec. The reaction went long to cross the 13 and 20 of a down trending market, then fell to extend the LOD by 4 ticks. It the next several minutes, it oscillated lower, extending the LOD each drop, while using the falling 50 SMA as resistance.

CL 03 13 (1 Min) 1.28.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:1.3%
Previous revision:-0.4% to1.2% Core
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual:4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.12
1st Peak @ 96.25 – 0833 (3 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.81 – 0901 (31 min)
69 ticks

Reverse to 95.47 – 1016 (106 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The spike crossed the 50 SMA, but it was not a resistance barrier since the market had been trading above it until a few min before the report release. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 96.18 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with up to 6 ticks on the first few bars, or 20+ if you were patient and waited about 7 min. After the 1st peak, it struggled to climb above 96.25 with a short term barrier there, then eventually stepped higher for another 25 min to 96.81 and 69 total ticks right at the pit open. The final reversal was reacting to the overbought condition of the market and the report, selling off for 134 ticks in 75 min, nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

Older Entries Newer Entries