Apr 202013

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2_27_2013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:1.9%
Previous revision:-0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual:-5.2%
Previous Revision:-0.3% to 4.3%
Started @ 92.49
1st Peak @ 92.67 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 92.38 – 0831 (106 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a quick and unsustainable spike for 18 ticks, followed by a reversal of 29 ticks. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 92.57 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hit 92.67 and sharply retreat 20 ticks in 4 sec. If you closed out there, you would have taken a 10 ticks loss, otherwise your stop loss would have caught at 25 sec. The reaction went long to cross the 13 and 20 of a down trending market, then fell to extend the LOD by 4 ticks. It the next several minutes, it oscillated lower, extending the LOD each drop, while using the falling 50 SMA as resistance.