7/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 50.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 135’12
1st Peak @ 135’06 – 1001 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 135’22 – 1006 (6 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 135’28 – 1103 (63 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 0.3 pts offset, but above 50.0. We shifted over to the ZB for this report due to the impact of US news on the bonds. We saw a drop of only 6 ticks that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. Then after 30 sec, it reversed and continued on the next 5 bars for 16 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 135’09 with no slippage. You would have seen it hover between your fill point and 135’06. I would move the stop loss to 135’10 or 11 on the long side of the 200 SMA and place a profit target at 135’07, just beneath the S1 Mid Pivot. If the target was in place before 21 seconds elapsed, it would have filled for 2 ticks, otherwise you would have seen your stop fill for -1 or -2 ticks. Due to the matching news, the DX initially fell, then rallied, causing the ZB to do the opposite. After the initial reversal of 16 ticks in 6 min, it continued higher for an extended reversal of 22 ticks on the 1103 bar at the R1 Mid Pivot.

12/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.08
1st Peak @ 89.60 – 0504 (4 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 90.06 – 0531 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.96 – 0611 (71 min)
112 ticks

Reversal to 89.30 – 0631 (91 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast and fell below 50 again after 2 months of a small recovery. This caused a healthy selloff of 48 ticks in 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs and bottomed at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 3 ticks of slippage at 89.99, then depending on your level of patience had an opportunity to close out with up to 35 ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot at 89.65. I managed 17 ticks, placing my exit at 89.82 at the 100 SMA. Please see the video on this report for many lessons. The market was overbought in the short term due to the rally of about 150 ticks in the previous 3 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, correcting to the 100 SMA, but then rebounded to 20 ticks off of the peak. This enhanced the selling pressure. The reversal was able to reclaim nearly all of the 1st peak in 31 min, crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs for a double top at 90.06. Then it fell for a much larger 2nd peak of 112 ticks to 88.96 in the span of about 30 min, crossing the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot with ease. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 34 ticks, to nick the R1 Pivot, then traded sideways.

10/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 51.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.85
1st Peak @ 93.32 – 0404 (4 min)
47 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 92.76 – 0423 (23 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and had a reading above 50 for the first time in 4 months. This caused a healthy rally of 47 ticks in 4 bars (mostly on the :01 bar) that crossed the 50 SMA and the R2 Pivot to peak at the HOD reached 45 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 3 ticks of slippage at 92.95, then had an opportunity to close with about 15 ticks as it hovered in the 93.10 area. The market was overbought in the very short term due to the rally of over 180 ticks in the previous 2.5 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, but the bulls were restrained, preventing an even higher rally or 2nd peak. The reversal was able to reclaim 56 ticks in a methodical drop to the 100 SMA in 23 min. It eventually dropped to the 200 SMA and lower, probably correcting the earlier rally, not the ISM report.