-051712.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/17/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 368K
Actual: 370K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 93.58
1st Peak @ 93.40 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks
Reversal to 93.80 – 0239 (9 min)
40 ticks
Notes: Report came in basically matching the forecast. The market decided to short the news for 18 ticks finding support on the PP Pivot, then reverse for double the rebound of 40 ticks.
-051612.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/16/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 2.1M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.28
1st Peak @ 93.63 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks
2nd Peak @ 94.16 – 0446 (16 min)
88 ticks
Reversal to 92.78 – 0509 (39 min)
138 ticks
Notes: Small gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a relatively small initial spike. With the market in a slight up trend before the report, all the SMAs were below the price action. The initial spike was reined in by the crossing of the S1 Pivot halfway up to its peak. With JOBB you would have filled long. The peak of 93.63 was hit early in the candle, but it rose to that level again twice so a sell limit placed near the top of the wick would have filled. When the :32 bar did not drop significantly, it is going for a higher 2nd peak. The reversal fought through all the SMAs and the S1/S2 Pivots to make a double bottom 20 ticks below the S2 Pivot.
-051512.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual:0.1%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 0.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.32
1st Peak @ 95.48 – 0231 (1 min)
16 ticks
2nd Peak @ 95.80 – 0239 (9 min)
48 ticks
Reversal to 94.63 – 0315 (45 min)
117 ticks
Notes: Report was negative, falling short of the forecast across the board, but CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index broke at the same time. CPI was flat, but the Empire reading was very strong, causing the small upward spike and 2nd peak that crossed the R1 Pivot for 16 and 48 ticks respectively. Then the negative results of the Retail Sales report took over on the strong reversal of 117 ticks. It fought through the R1 and PP Pivots along with all 3 major SMAs to find a bottom at 94.63, 24 ticks lower than the PP Pivot.
-051012.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/10/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 33B
Actual: 30B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.455
1st Peak @ 2.498 – 0431 (1 min)
43 ticks
Reversal to 2.422 – 0445 (15 min)
76 ticks
Notes: Spike crossed all three major SMAs along with the PP Pivot on its upward path, before hitting its nadir just short of 2.500. The report came in with a near matching value of 30B ft3 rise. With JOBB you would have filled long, then had an opportunity to exit when hovering was evident with about 15 ticks profit about 20 sec into the :31 candle. With a matching report, the reversal can be expected to at least come back to the level of the origin. In this case it yielded 76 ticks in 15 min, nearly double the amount of the initial spike.
-050912.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/9/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: 3.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.38
1st Peak @ 95.63 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks
2nd Peak @ 96.53 – 0447 (17 min)
115 ticks
Reversal to 95.91 – 0502 (32 min)
62 ticks
Notes: Moderate gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a strong long reaction. This is the opposite reaction to the report as expected, but more than likely due to the bounce of the 95.17 level a few minutes before the report which was a test of a low not seen since December. With JOBB you would have filled long and been stopped on the small reversalIt sliced through all three major SMAs along with the S1 Pivot with ease. The reversal came back to the 200 SMA to just nick it.
-050412.jpg "Click to enlarge")
-050412.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/4/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 173K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:115K
Previous Revision:+34K to 154K
Rate Forecast: 8.2%
Rate Actual:8.1%
INDECISIVE then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.44 / Reverse to 100.90 – 0231 (1 min)
-35 ticks / 11 ticks
Reversal to 101.17
73 ticks
Final Peak @ 97.83 – 0449 (139 min)
296 ticks
Reversal to 98.58 – 0518 (168 min)
67 ticks
Notes: Initially perceived mixed report with disappointing job #s but a drop in the rate coupled with a healthy upward revision to the previous report. This caused indecision on the :31 candle then a moderate move up followed by a huge downward fan as the reason for the drop in the U-3% was digested. over 500K people left the work force to cause the drop, along with the low # of jobs created caused the bearish tone to prevail. The FAN terminated at the S3 at 97.84 over 2 hrs after the report.
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5/3/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 31B
Actual: 28B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.325
1st Peak @ 2.345 / Reverse to 2.297 – 0431 (1 min)
20 ticks / -28 ticks
Notes: Nearly a matching report, caused indecision and a double wicker of 48 ticks from top to bottom. JOBB appears to no longer be a safe play for this report due to the high slippage, volatility, and propensity to bypass the JOBB safety stop gates. A trap order would have been a good strategy or a manual order a few minutes into the report.
-050312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.5
Actual:53.5K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.65
1st Peak @ 103.24 – 0401 (1 min)
41 ticks
Reversal to 103.47 – 0404 (4 min)
23 ticks
2nd Peak @ 103.03 – 0416 (16 min)
62 ticks
Reversal to 103.32 – 0520 (20 min)
29 ticks
Notes: Negative report fell well short of the forecast. This caused a downward spike with the trend on the first candle of 41 ticks, a 23 tick reversal, then a lower 2nd peak of 62 ticks, then another reversal of 29 ticks. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 103.57 with 2 ticks of slippage, then presented an easy opportunity to close out with at least 20 ticks. the subsequent reversal, 2nd peak, and reversal serve as a gap closing then another move lower followed by the final reversal where it came back up to the 13 and 20 SMAs.
-050312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
5/3/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 381K
Actual:365K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 105.08
1st Peak @ 105.16 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks
Reversal to 104.96 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks
Notes: Report came in better than expected after 3 bad weeks with 365K. The spike yielded a meager 8 ticks, then reversed for 20 just below the 50 SMA in 4 min.