Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 032011

10/3/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual:51.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 77.59
1st Peak @ 78.42 – 0403 (3 min)
83 ticks

2nd Peak @ 78.86 – 0414 (14 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 78.22 – 0424 (24 min)
64 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . 1st peak crossed the50 SMA about halfway up, and the 100 SMA near its apex, then retreated to the 100 SMA. The retracement between peaks came to bounce off of the 50 SMA then a determined rise to cross the 100 SMA easily and then the 200 SMA. I would watch the 0411 candle and seeing it clear the 200 SMA remain in until 0414-0415 as it nearly triple topped.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.28.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 282011

9/28/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:-0.1%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 4.1%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 84.15
Peak @ 84.41 – 0232 (2 min)
26 ticks

Retrace to 83.80 – 0239 (9 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast overall with no or minimal revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike with a larger follow on reversal. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a reversal up to the 50 SMA, then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. In this case the report did not have much shock value, so it only rose 26 ticks, then fell 61. I would watch it interact with the 50 SMA when it had trouble rising much higher, close out at or just above it. With the downward slope, if it has a secondary peak, it will be lower.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.27.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 272011

9/27/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 46.2
Actual: 45.4
Previous revision: +0.7 to 45.2
INDECISIVE
Started @ 84.04
1st Peak @ 83.93 / retrace to 84.25 – 0401 (1 min)
-11 ticks / 21 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell mildly short of forecast causing an indecisive volatile candle with no clear direction in the 0402-0404 range. If you had used JOBB, you would have been shorted at about 83.97 level. You would see about 3-4 ticks of profit briefly, then a retrace to 4-7 ticks of loss where it hovered for about 15 sec. I would get out there rather than gamble on the return or have it hit the stop loss as the hovering illustrates a lack of conviction.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.20.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Sep 202011

9/20/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 0.62M
No previous revision
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.16
Peak@ 87.04 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak@ 86.90 – 0237 (7 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast but reaction was reaction was opposite of expected. I would ride the heat in this case around 2-3 min after the report when a level of resistance was set at 87.17 and it eventually fell.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 09.15.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Sep 152011

9/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -14.7
Actual:-17.5
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.84
1st Peak @ 90.69 / retrace to 91.01 – 0401 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 17 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing an indecisive volatile at 0401. Also notice the pre-report market position was right on the R1 line which acts as a gravity pull. With JOBB, you would have gotten in short and then retraced 10 ticks before the first second passed by. Then it rose methodically upward for 40 sec to go 17 ticks above the candle entry, before giving that back in the last 20 sec. The stop loss would have gotten you out here. It did a spike/retrace on the following candles, but the long wicks and tails indicate much volatility, but after the 0401 candle, you never know what it will do.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.14.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 142011

9/14/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.1%
Previous revision:-0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual:0.0%
Previous Revision:-0.2% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.36
1st Peak @ 90.17 – 0231 (1 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.07 – 0233 (3 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 90.54 – 0246 (16 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a moderate downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike had to fight through the 200 SMA (long tail on the 0231 candle) then the reversal peaked just above the 100 and 50 SMAs. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was mildly positive, taking away some of the momentum from the spike. I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.08.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 082011

9/8/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -50.6B
Actual: -44.8B
Previous Revision: +1.5B to -51.6B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.11
1st Peak @ 90.21 / 90.00 – 0231 (1 min)
39 ticks

Retrace to 85.01 – 0239 – 0242 (4-9 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised mildly upward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (disappointed at 414K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. Due to offsetting positive and negative reports, the market was indecisive.

CL 10 11 (1 Min) 09.02.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 022011

9/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 74K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:0K
Previous Revision:-32K to 85K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual: 9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK *with premature 50 tick upward spike
Started @ 87.67
1st Peak @ 86.31 – 0231 (1 min)
136 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.68 – 0307 (37 min)
199 ticks

Reversal to 86.26 – 0315 (45 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast causing a healthy spike downward. However, the market uncharacteristically shot up about 50 ticks 2-3 sec before the report broke. This would have gotten you in long before taking you short to your stop loss. The numerical analysis above is with the removal of the 50 tick pre report spike. I would get in going short again around 0239-0243 and ride it until after the open.

CL 10 11 (2 Range) 09.02.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 022011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 012011

9/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.7
Actual:50.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 89.41
1st Peak @ 90.13 – 0404 (4 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 89.44 – 0415 (15 min)
69 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market was stuck flirting with the 200 SMA around the release causing a premature spike up to the 200 SMA, then the tail on the 0401 candle before the large spike upward. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long on the 0400 candle, and absorbed the heat of 10-11 ticks on the 0401 candle before it spiked up. The first candle rose 62 ticks, so it is worth waiting to see what the follow on candles do. With the 2 long wicks on the 0402-0403 candles, I would close out around 90.00.

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