Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 012011

8/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual:50.9
Previous revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 98.72
1st Peak @ 97.93 – 0401 (1 min)
79 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.28 – 0549 (109 min)
444 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy down spike and initiating a FAN. It is hard to say in this case where the influence of the report ends and the snowball just continues to roll down the hill, but it methodically fell without a significant reversal for almost 2 hrs. I would have probably closed out after the 0435 candle anticipating a reversal there, not knowing the future.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.29.11

Advance GDP Comments Off

Jul 292011

7/29/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: -1.4% to 0.4%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 97.59
1st Peak@ 97.08 – 0231 (1 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.81 – 0316 (46 min)
178 ticks

Reversal to 96.69 – 0357 (87 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, with a large previous downward revision. This contributed to the large downward fan. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. I would close out around the S3 line @95.87. Also notice the hovering at the s2 line between 0230 and 0300, then the precipitous fall after the 0300 open. Then I would trade the reversal for about 30 min. The report was so negative, that the reversal was miniscule in comparison to the initial move.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.08.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 082011

7/8/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 97K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:18K
Previous Revision:-29K to 25K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual:9.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.96
1st Peak @ 98.67 – 0231 (1 min)
129 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.75 – 0239 (9 min)
221 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.58 – 0256 (26 min)
238 ticks

Reversal to 98.64 – 0312 (42 min)
106 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report came in well short of the forecast causing a healthy spike and follow on 2nd Peak . There was no strong retracement after the initial spike – it went back to to touch the S1 line and then fell off of a cliff up to 0240. I would close out after seeing fall through the S2 line and cross over 200 ticks – that is impressive. It spent the next 20 min going basically sideways, so you would not be hurt by staying in betting on another drop.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 07.08.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 082011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 012011

7/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual:55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.00
1st Peak @ 95.75 – 0401 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 95.10 – 0408 (8 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market had fallen about 60 ticks in the last 30 min and was starting to reverse prior to the report. Not needing much of a catalyst to spike long, the report delivered 75 ticks in the 0401 candle. Due to the rapid rise, this is a case for a retreat on the next candle. It gave back 65 ticks in the next 7 candles. The rise from 0420 to 0425 could have been a second peak, but the 12 min sideways action between 0408 and 0420 is unusual.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 06.03.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 032011

6/3/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:54K
Previous Revision:-12K to 232K
Rate Forecast: 9.0%
Rate Actual:9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK and DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 101.13
1st Peak @ 100.25 – 0231 (1 min)
88 ticks

Final Peak @ 99.67 – 0305 (35 min)
144 ticks

Reversal to 100.34 – 0335 (65 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report came in well short of the forecast causing a healthy spike and follow on FAN . Market kept falling until just after the open with the big red candle at 0304. I would close out at the end of the 0231 candle or wait and play the FAN for a few more ticks. You could also close out on the 0231 and then wait until the gap close / reversal and see how it plays out to jump into another short trade if the gap close “falls short”.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 06.03.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 032011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 06.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 012011

6/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.1
Actual:53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.80
1st Peak @ 103.46 – 0402 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.14 – 0415 (15 min)
66 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 103.76 – 0424 (24 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy down spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Market was engaged in a downward FAN prior to the report so the momentum was aided by the negative report. The first peak hit the S1 line, then after retracement, the market was able to fall to a double bottom at 103.14 at 0414. With the three candles in that area having long tails, that is the departure point.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 05.25.11

Prelim GDP Comments Off

May 252011

5/26/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.2%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 100.84
1st Peak@ 100.49 – 0232 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.19 – 0242 (12 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Solid 2 candle drop of 35 ticks followed by a 70 tick reversal up to the 100 SMA. During the reversal, the it paused, experiencing some resistance at the 50 SMA but eventually fought through it. I would close out around the PP line at 101.10 at 0246 after seeing 5 candles no longer go above the PP.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 04.28.11

Advance GDP Comments Off

Apr 282011

4/28/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 3.1%
INDECISIVE

Notes: Report was slightly negative, with a small previous downward revision. Normally this should be enough to cause a decisive downward fan, but it was volatile in this case. I would have used the JOBB strategy here, get in short and then let the stop loss work to mitigate the loss going long. Also notice the 0301 candle right after the open was indecisive. This reaction did not follow the routine at all.

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