Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 082014

6/26/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 314K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009832 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009837 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009828 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009839 – 0831:42 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009832 – 0836 (6 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009842 – 0846 (16 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009836 – 0905 (35 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009823 (on the OOD) / 0.009813 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009840 (just above the HOD) / 0.009851 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 2K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused a small long reaction that rose only 5 ticks, then fell 9 ticks immediately. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. It continued to chop up and down, but the swings were small and contained.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 092014

6/25/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.56M
Actual: 1.74M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.49M
Actual: 0.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.87M
Actual: 1.18M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 105.80
1st Peak @ 105.73 – 1030:03 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 105.89 – 1030:14 (1 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 105.62 – 1030:49 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 105.86 – 1033 (3 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.47 – 1034 (4 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 106.31 – 1100 (30 min)
84 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts and they were conflicting, but they caused a dull tug of war that did not stray far from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse cross your bracket until about 26 sec after the report, so cancel the order on the dull move with no fill. It continued to chop as it headed lower to eclipse the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot after 4 min, then reversed and climbed 84 ticks in the next 26 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 102014

6/26/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 110B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.565
1st Peak @ 4.485 – 1030:16 (1 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 4.508 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.431 – 1035 (5 min)
134 ticks

Reversal to 4.483 – 1042 (12 min)
52 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short spike that was very stable easy to capture. The spike started above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 80 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.530 with about 25 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall then hover below the S2 Pivot allowing about 40 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next bar before falling for a 2nd peak of 64 more ticks on the :35 bar as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 52 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 13 SMA and traded sideways. Of note this is one of the infrequent occasions where trading the reversal on the :33 bar would not have worked out.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 102014

7/3/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 100B
Actual: 100B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.341
1st Peak @ 4.387 – 1030:32 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 4.371 – 1032 (2 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.405 – 1033 (3 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 4.387 – 1034 (4 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.411 – 1047 (17 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 4.356 – 1101 (31 min)
55 ticks

Notes: We saw a matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate long spike that was very stable easy to capture. The spike started just below the 50 / 100 SMAs and rose to cross the PP Pivot and extend the HOD on the :31 bar for a total of 46 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.362 with about 11 ticks of slippage, then seen it back off in the first 10 sec before continuing to climb to reach the PP Pivot and hover for about 20 sec allowing about 20 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks on the :32 and :33 bars as it neared the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks and chopped between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots in the next 14 min as the final peak snagged abother 6 ticks. Then it reversed for 55 ticks in the next 14 min to reach the 200 / 100 SMAs and OOD.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009854
1st Peak @ 0.009864 – 1002:58 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009851 – 1013 (13 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.009860 – 1028 (28 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009852 – 1057 (57 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly below the forecast with a deviation of only 0.3 pts. This caused a large, quick, and shortly sustained bullish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a slow developing long spike of only 10 ticks on the :01 – :03 bars that started on the 200 SMA then rose to cross the OOD and the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 009858 with no slippage, then seen it struggle with the OOD and S2 Mid Pivot for about 90 sec. Due to the nearly matching results and the resistance encountered, look to exit at 9860 or 9861 with 2-3 ticks. After the peak was reached, it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing the S2 Pivot. This would have been a great reversal trade opportunity. After that it pulled back for 9 ticks, and reversed later as it started cycling between the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/2/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 207K
Actual: 281K
Previous revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009856 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009833 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009844 – 0815:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Continued reversal to 0.009849 – 0818 (3 min)
16 ticks

Double Bottom to 0.009833 – 0846 (16 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009846 (on the OOD) / 0.009837 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009866 (on the HOD) / 0.009876 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 74k jobs causing a quick short spike of 23 ticks that crossed the OOD, S3 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. Then it retreated 11 ticks in only 26 sec to the S2 Pivot. That would have filled the inner and outer tier long orders with about 4 ticks excess making your average entry about 0.009841. Look to exit where it hovered at about 9844 for about 6 total ticks on 2 fills. It continued to reverse for 5 more ticks early on the 3rd bar, but due to the biased report, waiting for more ticks would not be wise in this case. This proved correct as it fell for a double bottom 13 min later then remained near the LOD for over an hour until it dropped again.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 162014

7/2/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.23M
Actual: -3.16M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.36M
Actual: -1.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.76M
Actual: 0.98M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.66
1st Peak @ 105.13 – 1033 (3 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 104.91 – 1038 (8 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 105.53 – 1103 (33 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 104.32 – 1220 (110 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a near matching negligible. Overall, the results were bullish for oil with the gas and crude consistent and driving the action. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen your long entry fill at about 104.78 with 2 ticks of slippage then struggle with the 200 SMA for several seconds. In this situation, given the decisive results, it would be wise to wait for a larger reaction since it was stalling only 20 ticks from the origin. The S1 Mid Pivot would have made a great target for about 20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 22 ticks to the 13 SMA after 5 min, then climbed for a final peak of 40 more ticks in the next 25 min as it eclipsed the PP Pivot and HOD. Then it reversed slowly and methodically for 121 ticks in about 80 min back to through the origin and extending the LOD.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 162014

7/9/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.15M
Actual: -2.37M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.22M
Actual: 0.58M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.23M
Actual: 0.23M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.74
1st Peak @ 102.61 – 1030:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 102.80 – 1030:34 (1 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 102.40 – 1034 (4 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 102.80 – 1048 (18 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts and they were conflicting, but they caused a dull tug of war that did not stray far from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 102.64 with no slippage, then struggle to go any lower due to the conflicting results and position of the 50 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot just below. It hovered near the fill point briefly, then reversed for 9 ticks, then fell back to the fill point area allowing 2 opportunities to exit near breakeven. If you waited, you would have been stopped out at 34 sec into the bar as it reversed 16 ticks, but that should have been preventable. It fell for a final peak at 4 min to extend the LOD for another 21 ticks. Then it reversed for 40 ticks to reach a double top from the earlier reversal.

ES 09-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 172014

7/3/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 214K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 288K
Previous Revision: +7K to 224K
Rate Forecast: 6.3%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 1969.50 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1971.25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 1967.25 – 0830:42 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1966.25 – 0837 (7 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 1975.00 – 0936 (66 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1971.50 – 0949 (79 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1963.50 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1959.25 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1975.75 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 1980.00 (just below the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strongly positive report with 74K more jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and a drop of 0.2% in the U-3 rate. In spite of the strong report, the 4th of July holiday kept volatility to a minimum. We only saw a deviation of 9 ticks from the origin in the first minute. This would have been well contained inside the Trap Trade after 30 sec, so cancel the order. After the first minute, it fell to the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then reversed for a final peak of 15 ticks more than the original peak as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks to the 13 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.17.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 192014

7/17/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 15.6
Actual: 23.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009854
1st Peak @ 0.009842 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009856 – 1033 (33 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 8.3 pts, causing a short spike of 12 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs and fell to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD. Due to the crossing of the PP Pivot, the reaction was not sustained. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 0.009849 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it retreat to hover around your fill point. Look to exit at breakeven, as it hovered for over a minute within 1 tick of your fill point. If you had waited for a secondary drop, you would have been faced with a similar result with only 1-2 ticks loss after 5-10 min. The reversal reached the 100 SMA after 33 min for a total of 14 ticks.

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