Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 11-14 (1 Min) 10.8.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 132014

10/8/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.53M
Actual: 5.02M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.00M
Actual: 1.18M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.07M
Actual: 0.44M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.35
1st Peak @ 87.23 – 1030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 87.51 – 1030:17 (1 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.83 – 1034 (4 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 87.45 – 1049 (19 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest loss was expected. This caused a small short reaction that was briefly sustained as it crossed the 50 SMA. It fell 12 ticks, then reversed 28 ticks to the 100 SMA after only 17 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 87.25 with no slippage, then seen it hover around your fill point for 11 sec before reversing. This is a unique case with all products gaining where we would expect a large short reaction, not a muted shortly sustained move. The safe move here would be to exit between 2 ticks of profit and 5 ticks loss, then look to place a manual short entry after a reversal. It reversed 28 ticks in about 6 sec, then hovered near the 100 SMA for about 25 sec before falling. It achieved a 40 tick 2nd peak in the next 3 min to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed 62 ticks in 15 min back to the 100 SMA. More than likely the selloff of oil in the last hour and since the session open contributed to the reluctance of the market to fall on the supply driven news.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jul 192015

6/30/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – CANCEL SLOW MOVE
Anchor Point @ 401.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 414.75 – 1200:37 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 407.75 – 1201:50 (2 min)
28 ticks
————
Pullback to 415.75 – 1211 (11 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 412.00 – 1214 (14 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 424.50 – 1244 (44 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 418.00 – 1311 (71 min)
26 ticks

Final Peak @432.25 – 1415 (135 min)
124 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 388.75 (in between the S3 and S3 Mid Pivots) / 385.00 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 413.75 (above the R2 Pivot) / 417.25 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report Reaction differed from previous years June reports which were whipsaws or shortly sustained. We saw a long spike of 54 ticks to breach the R2 Pivot that took 37 sec. Due to the slow approach it would have been wise to cancel, but it still would have worked out. This would have filled the inner short tier at 413.75 with 4 ticks to spare, then reversed 28 ticks in the next min to the R1 Pivot to allow up to 20 or so ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 32 ticks in 9 min before reversing 15 ticks in 3 min to the R2 Pivot and 13 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 39 more ticks in 30 min t to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot before reversing 26 ticks in 27 min to cross the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 30 more ticks as the session closed. This behaved much more like the January or September report, but still would have been a decent trap trade.

ZC 05-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Apr 182015

4/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 376.25
1st Peak @ 375.00 – 1200:34 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 378.75 – 1202 (2 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 376.00 – 1204 (4 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 380.00 – 1214 (14 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a slow developing dull reaction of only 5 ticks short in 34 sec. to the LOD. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with no fill after 15 sec. After the peak, it reversed 15 ticks in 1 min to the OOD before pulling back 11 ticks to the 100/50 SMAs and S1 Pivot in 2 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 10 min to the PP Pivot / HOD.

ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 10.10.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Oct 132014

10/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 940.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 948.50 – 1200:45 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 942.00 – 1200:57 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 951.25 – 1201:38 (2 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 934.25 – 1205 (5 min)
68 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade but likely seen excessive slippage. It would have been tame as it hovered near the PP Pivot to provide an anchor point at 940.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 941.50 with no slippage, then climbed another 28 ticks in only 13 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and hover to present an ideal exit for about 25 ticks. After that it reversed 26 ticks in 12 sec then rallied for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in the next 40 sec as it eclipsed the R2 mid Pivot. Then it reversed 68 ticks in the next 3 min to the 13 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it rallied one more time to the R1 Pivot, then collapsed to the LOD as the session closed.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Oct 142014

9/30/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.2
Actual: 86.0
Previous revision: +1.0 to 93.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009124
1st Peak @ 0.009132 – 1000:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009120 – 1017 (17 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009137 – 1034 (34 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009118 – 1108 (68 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin with a moderate upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a relatively muted long reaction of 8 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 20 SMA and S1 Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.009128 with no slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.009131 for 3 ticks where it hovered late in the :01 bar on the S1 Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 12 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks after 17 min. After that it fell 19 ticks to the S2 Pivot in the next 34 min.

NG 11-14 (1 Min) 9.25.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 162014

9/25/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 98B
Actual: 97B
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 3.908
1st Peak @ 3.889 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Reversal to 3.953 – 1030:25 (1 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 3.928 – 1030:48 (1 min)
-25 ticks

Reversal to 3.972 – 1037 (7 min)
44 ticks

Pullback to 3.922 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: We saw a near match on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick short spike of only 19 ticks to nearly reach the S1 Pivot, then hovering prior to a large reversal. There was minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.895 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 6 ticks of profit and 8 ticks loss in the the first 8 sec. This would have been a trigger to exit near breakeven along with the matching result. After 8 sec, it reversed 64 ticks in the next 17 sec to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back 25 ticks in the next 13 sec and remained in the area of the 200 SMA / PP Pivot as the bar expired. After that it reversed for 44 ticks in the next 6 min to extend the HOD and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 50 ticks in the next 21 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 207K
Actual: 213K
Previous revision: -2K to 202K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009102 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009096 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009104 – 0815:59 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009122 – 0824 (9 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009131 – 0902 (47 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009093 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009083 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009110 (just above the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot / 0.009122 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast to cause a tame whipsaw that fell 6 ticks then reversed 8 ticks through the course of the :31 bar. That would have missed the inner short entry by 3 ticks, making it an easy decision to cancel the order. Since it was a near match and only moved 6 ticks from the origin, a manual entry would not be prudent. After the initial reversal of 8 ticks, it climbed another 18 ticks in 8 min to the PP Pivot, then another 9 ticks in 38 min to the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.6
Actual: 56.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009134
1st Peak @ 0.009150 – 1000:08 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.009144 – 1003 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009158 – 1006 (6 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.009135 – 1029 (29 min)
23 ticks

Continued reversal to 0.009127 – 1107 (67 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly short of the forecast with a deviation of 2.0 pts to reverse the strong reading of last month. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks that started just underneath the R1 Pivot and 20/13 SMAs and rose to reach the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.009141 with 3 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered for 7 sec on the R2 Pivot at 0.009149 for about 8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 6 ticks in 2 min, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks. After that it reversed 23 ticks back to the origin in 23 min, then another 8 ticks in the next 38 min to the 200 SMA / OOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.2.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 202014

10/2/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 287K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009198 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009194 – 0.009200 – 0831 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009189 (At the area of support 0806) / 0.009180 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.009208 (on the 200 SMA) / 0.009217 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong with 12k offset. This caused a surprisingly dull reaction that only moved 6 ticks overall and 4 ticks from the anchor point. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. The market kept trading in a narrow range until about 0840 when it rallied on the ECB press conference news.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.3.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 222014

10/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.5
Actual: 58.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009121
1st Peak @ 0.009115 – 1000:01 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009123 – 1000:22 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 0.009114 – 1001:13 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009122 – 1008 (8 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast to cause a shortly sustained short reaction of 6 ticks that reversed after hitting the S3 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD 22. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009117 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover for about 5 sec on four fill point before reversing. If you were quick you would have been able to exit at breakeven before the reversal. Otherwise, if you were caught with a few ticks in the red, be patient and wait for it to come back. You would have seen 6 ticks of heat, then watched it fall into the :02 bar to hover at +2 ticks. With the down trend already in place from the NFP report 90 min earlier and a match, it is unlikely to go long. It reversed 8 ticks in 6 min as it continued to flirt with the S3 Mid Pivot, unable to penetrate until about 20 min later.

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