Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.25.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 95.9
Actual: 88.7
Previous revision: -0.4 to 94.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008477
1st Peak @ 0.008490 – 1000:06 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008471 – 1017 (17 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly missed the forecast by a healthy margin with a small downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a large long reaction of 13 ticks that started just above the R2 Pivot and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008483 with 3 ticks of slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.008488 for 5 ticks where it hovered for 14 sec just above the R3 Mid Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 19 ticks in 17 min to the 100/200 SMAs.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.008489 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008502 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008490 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008500 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008494 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008505 – 0841 (11 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008493 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008480 (on the LOD) / 0.008470 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008499 (match the high @0740) / 0.008509 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report caused an initial long spike followed by a quick reversal. The Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.4% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.8% with small upward previous revisions. Unemployment claims also released with a 26K disappointment. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the high from 0740 for 13 ticks with no other barrier near then fell 12 ticks 5 sec later. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately with 3 ticks to spare, then fallen to hover near the origin allowing 9 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in the next 16 sec then reversed 6 ticks on the :33 bar to the 50/100 SMAs. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to reach the HOD in 8 min before reversing 12 ticks to the 200 SMA in 13 min.

CL 01-15 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/19/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.78M
Actual: 2.61M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 1.03M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.88M
Actual: -2.06M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 74.70
1st Peak @ 74.49 – 1030:40 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 74.69 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 74.03 – 1042 (12 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 74.91 – 1059 (29 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a smaller modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a near matching modest draw. This caused a decisive short move of 21 ticks with a 16 tick immediate spike followed by a retreat then another drop to fall another 5 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 74.58 with 2 ticks of slippage. It would have backed off and spent about 25 sec at about 3 ticks in the red before falling later in the bar to hover at about 4-5 ticks of profit. This would have been the best place to exit, but a it would also be safe to exit with a 3 tick loss earlier with the risk of the report. After the peak, it reversed 20 ticks on the next bar to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 46 more ticks in the next 10 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 88 ticks in 17 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot.

CL 01-15 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.47M
Actual: 1.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.82M
Actual: 1.83M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.55M
Actual: -1.65M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 73.76
1st Peak @ 73.39 – 1031:43 (2 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 73.68 – 1035 (5 min)
29 ticks

Continued Reversal to 74.24 – 1128 (58 min)
85 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a matching modest gain, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a decisive short move of 37 ticks with a 23 tick immediate spike followed by a retreat then another drop to fall another 14 ticks into the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 73.63 with 3 ticks of slippage. It would have backed off then fallen to hover just below the 50/100 SMAs. Look to exit there safely with 3-5 ticks. It was able to fall later and sustain a larger drop into the :32 bar, but that was after a reversal and not expected. After the peak it reversed 29 ticks in 3 min, crossing the 50/100 SMAs, then continued to reversed for another 56 ticks in the next 53 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 012015

Caption for 12/1:
12/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 57.9
Actual: 58.7
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 0.008480
1st Peak @ 0.008486 – 1000:09 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008472 – 1003 (3 min)
14 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008458 – 1014 (14 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 0.8 pts. This caused minimal choppy movement in the first 8 sec before finally resulting in a 6 tick long spike. You may have cancelled the order, but if not with JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008484 with no slippage, then look to exit at breakeven as it hovered there for 10 sec before drifting lower. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 2 min as it crossed the 20 SMA. Then it fell another 14 ticks in the next 11 min after crossing the 50/100 SMAs.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 223K
Actual: 208K
Previous revision: +3K to 233K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008377 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008373 – 0815:09 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008387 – 0828 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 0853 (38 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008369 (just below the LOD) / 0.008357 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008386 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (on the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 15k below the forecast to cause only a 6 tick long move immediately followed by a 10 tick reversal after 9 sec. This would have fallen short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 12 more min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the OOD. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 25 min as it reached the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 57.5
Actual: 59.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008355
1st Peak @ 0.008348 – 1000:00 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 1008 (8 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.008349 – 1013 (13 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008359 – 1022 (22 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.8 points to cause a short spike of 7 ticks that started just below the S3 Pivot and fell to reach the S4 Mid Pivot then retreat. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.008351 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it retreat to hover about 4 ticks in the red before falling again. The “whiplash” is due to hitting the S4 Mid Pivot while also extending the LOD. In this case since the report has enough of a disappointing result, be patient and wait for the secondary drop. It fell later in the bar to the fill point and hovered in the area for several min to allow an exit between breakeven and 1 tick loss. After that it reversed 12 ticks in the next 7 min to the 50 SMA before pulling back 11 ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 9 min and traded sideways around the S3 Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 296K
Actual: 297K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008338
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008343 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008340 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008329 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008320 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008347 (just above the OOD) / 0.008358 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 1k offset with no other news. This caused a dull reaction as we should expect that rose 5 ticks in 25 sec just below the S1 Mid Pivot then reversed only 3 ticks in the next 9 sec. This would have been well short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. The erratic movement after 0837 is due to the ECB press conference.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 012015

Caption for 12/11:

12/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008443
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008430 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008440 – 0831:54 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008385 – 0952 (82 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 1000 (90 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008431 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008424 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008454 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008462 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: All the news came in strong to cause a short reaction of 13 ticks in 1 sec to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then taken nearly 2 min to reverse for 10 ticks allowing about 8 ticks to be captured where it hovered. After that, the gravity of the report continued to pull the market lower for another 45 ticks in the next 80 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA. After that it continued to trade near the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 022015

ZB 03-15 (Second) 12_11_2014

12/11/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 144’06)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’29 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’06 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 144’02 – 0831:15 (2 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’08 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 143’18 – 0937 (67 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 143’26 – 0958 (88 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’01 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 143’30 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 144’11 (just above the 100 SMA) / 144’14 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in stronger that the forecast. This caused a short move of 9 ticks initially that crossed the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot then retreated. This would have filled both long entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 143’31.5. It reversed for 9 ticks quickly and hovered at 144’05 for 5 sec to allow an exit with 11 total ticks. After a pullback of 4 ticks, it reversed 6 ticks to provide a hovering exit at 144’06 for 13 total ticks. After that it fell for a final peak of 11 more ticks in the next hour after crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 21 min back to the 50 SMA.

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