ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016
Mar 302016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_4_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_4_2016

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’21
1st Peak @ 163’04 – 0830:01 (1 Min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 163’25 – 0830:27 (1 Min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 163’01 – 0831:13 (2 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’08 – 0837 (7 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 163’16 – 0902 (32 min)
40 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’18 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’05 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report caused a moderate short move initially, but it recoiled and fully reversed after about 30 sec. A profit target of 13 ticks or less would have filled. If not filled, look to exit on the hovering at 163’10 at the PP Pivot. If you did not exit, the reversal would have stopped you out with 5 ticks in the middle of the :31 bar. Then it fell strongly again and kept stepping lower for a final peak of 45 ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. After the final peak, it followed the reversal of the equity markets and reversed for 40 ticks to the 200 SMA.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 282016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 185K
Actual: 214K
Previous revision: -12K to 193K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 9745.0
1st Peak @ 9763.0 – 0815:26 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 9745.0 – 0818 (3 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 9760.5 – 0821 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 9724.5 – 0833 (18 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 9750.0 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9762.5 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9760.0 (30 ticks and above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Nice stable spike peaked after 26 sec, then reversed after hovering above the 50 SMA. Look to exit on the hovering before seeing profit slip away. No 2nd peak, but still a decent pullback to the 50 SMA followed by a reversal.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016
Mar 262016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 53.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008807
1st Peak @ 0.008798 – 1000:19 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008816 – 1006 (6 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.008801 – 1009 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.008814 – 1027 (27 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008804 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008799 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008794 (in between the PP Pivot and 100 SMA)

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a 9 tick short spike that was fleeting after 29 sec. Another lesson to watch the forex factory results and be sure to exit quickly when you have profit on a near match, as a quick reversal is likely.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016
Mar 262016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3_1_2016

3/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008838
1st Peak @ 0.008816 – 1002:09 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.008827 – 1008 (8 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008788 – 1039 (39 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 0.008810 – 1059 (59 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008834 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008817 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008824 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot / LOD)

Notes: Nice spike that carried through into the 3rd bar for over 20 ticks. Then a reversal to the falling 13 SMA offering a nice 2nd peak entry to ride the 13 SMA for 30+ ticks in 30 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2015
Mar 242016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -49B
Actual: -48B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.649
1st Peak @ 1.675 – 1030:02 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.654 – 1033 (3 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.681 – 1038 (8 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.645 – 1043 (13 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.695 – 1111 (41 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.658 – 1125 (55 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.659 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.674 – 15 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.683 (above the HOD) or 1.691 (just above the PP Pivot) – move to 1.674 (above the OOD)

Notes: No slippage fill due to the small move. Then ample opportunity to exit at the OOD. Then it cycled a few times to step to a 2nd and final peak with nice reversals in between. The 3 candle bottom on the major SMAs at 1043-5 offered a nice buy opportunity.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016
Mar 242016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -125B
Actual: -117B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.790
1st Peak @ 1.751 – 1030:00 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.770 – 1031:26 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.747 – 1047 (17 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.761 – 1049 (19 min)
14 ticks

Double Bottom @ 1.747 – 1103 (33 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.777 – 1124 (54 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.774 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.745 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move about 10 ticks higher

Notes: Quick move fell 39 ticks, then hovered mostly within 8 ticks of the low to allow 15-20 ticks profit before reversing 19 ticks in the next min. Then it used the falling 13 SMA as resistance to fall for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot. After a double bottom a nice reversal to the S2 Pivot / 100 SMA.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016
Mar 182016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 1.8%
Previous revision: +0.2% to -1.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual: 4.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -5.0%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008892
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008877 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Hovering around 0.008878

Pullback to 0.008874 – 0831:27 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008888 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.008881 – 0838 (8 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008896 – 0842 (12 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008880 (just below the LOD) / 0.008872 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008902 (just below the 200 SMA/OOD) / 0.008909 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.008880 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: early conservative exit at 0.008879 – 1 tick loss or move wait for the delayed reversal for 7 ticks at 0.008887.
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008899 – move lower

Notes: All aspects of the report were moderately bullish, so it fell decisively for 15 ticks then took 2 min before starting to reverse. Patience would be okay in this scenario as this report still likes to reverse, but the consistent bias of the results kept it near the S3 Mid pivot for a bit.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016
Mar 182016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_23_2016

2/23/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 97.4
Actual: 92.2
Previous revision: -0.3 to 97.8
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008910
1st Peak @ 0.008914 – 1000:05 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.008908 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008929 – 1020 (20 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008920 – 1028 (28 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008913 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008914 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008918 (just above the 100 SMA)

Notes: Reaction was surprisingly dull possibly due to the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA on top of the origin. You would have been faced with an exit at breakeven after the fill. Then it piddled around on the R1 Mid Pivot for 5 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.87M
Actual: 3.88M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.53M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.04M
Actual: -1.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 37.23
1st Peak @ 37.75 – 1031:58 (2 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 37.43 – 1035 (5 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 38.02 – 1039 (9 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 37.39 – 1055 (25 min)
63 ticks

Expected Fill: 37.36 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.74 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 37.63 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Moderate long spike peaked quickly at the R1 Pivot then backed off before pulling back in the next min to reclaim the R1 Pivot. After a reversal to the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak. Then it reversed to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.60M
Actual: 10.37M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.20M
Actual: 2.88M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 34.36
1st Peak @ 33.81 – 1030:14 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 34.08 – 1030:45 (1 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 33.59 – 1033 (3 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 33.98 – 1035 (5 min)
39 ticks

Double Bottom @ 33.56 – 1041 (11 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 35.17 – 1111 (41 min)
161 ticks

Expected Fill: 34.26 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 33.82 – 44 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 33.87 (just below the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Moderate short spike peaked fell to eclipse the OOD then hovered before reversing due to the support of the Major SMAs. Then it fell for a 2nd peak as the large gain on crude drove it to the LOD / S1 Pivot. After the double bottom, great reversal trade opportunity as the support level held.

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