Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZS 05-15 (1 Min) 3.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Mar 312015

3/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 986.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 988.50 – 1200:33 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 984.50 – 1204 (4 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 990.00 – 1208 (8 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy and marginally safe if you exited quickly before it reversed. This time the alternate approach yielded a dull fill as the setup was about 1 sec early in hindsight. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 988.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it back off and hover for about 20 sec just above the old LOD position. before it slowly fell more. Look to exit as it is walking away with about 3-5 ticks. If you let it ride, it would have come within 1 tick of the stop loss, then pulled back to allow a negligible loss on the :03 or :04 bars. It eventually pulled back to cross the 100 SMA to allow an exit for up to 8 ticks, but that was 7 min later. It continued to oscillate between the 200 SMA and just below the S1 Pivot for the next hour or so. We will keep an eye on the trend to see if this reaction is an anomaly or if a change of approach is needed.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 012015

3/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -1.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 159’31
Wrong Direction spike to 159’27 – 0830:01 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 160’26 – 0830:51 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 160’15 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 160’09 – 0906 (36 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 160’25 – 0925 (55 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 159’30 – 1011 (101 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report was extremely weak for a second straight month. After seeing the retail results trending to overshadow the claims lately when double booked, we shifted to the bracket approach which would have also fared better last month. Well, manipulation came into play here similar to the NFP as we saw a 4 tick short move followed by whipsaw conditions for 2 sec, then a nice long spike for 27 ticks to the R2 Pivot which is excessively large for this report. The claims offset the report and may have been responsible for the opening indecision. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 159’27 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been immediately stopped out with a 5 tick loss (including 1 tick of slippage). The tight stop would have been useful here for protection. With such an oversized spike, you can expect a good reversal. We saw a 11 tick drop in the next 2 min to the R2 Mid Pivot, then another 6 ticks in the next 33 min to the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks for nearly a double top in 19 min before reversing 27 ticks to the origin in 46 min. So even with the loss on the initial trade, it was a good scenario to trade a reversal and more than make up for the loss.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 11.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 222014

11/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 372.00
1st Peak @ 378.75 – 1200:34 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 367.50 – 1202 (2 min)
45 ticks

Pullback to 375.00 – 1206 (6 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 366.25 – 1211 (11 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 374.25 – 1231 (31 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long move of 27 ticks after 3 failed attempts to penetrate the R3 Mid Pivot. It started just above the 13 SMA and rose to reach the R3 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 373.25 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it quickly rise to test the R3 Mid Pivot, then back off and test it 2 more times. As it hovered each time and presented multiple opportunities to exit there, look to cover at 377.75 or higher for at least 18 ticks. After that it reversed strongly for 45 ticks in a little over a minute to the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back to the R2 pivot for 30 ticks after 4 min. After that it reversed 35 ticks in 5 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 32 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in 20 min and settled down to trade near the SMAs.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.17.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Apr 042015

3/17/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.07M
Actual: 1.09M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.06M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.05M
Actual: 0.90M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.08M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008260
1st Peak @ 0.008267 – 0830:11 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008261 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008257 – 0859 (29 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly conflicting with the BLDG Permits narrowly exceeding the forecast by 0.02M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.15M. This caused a long move of 7 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the R1 Pivot while extending the HOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008264 with 1 tick of slippage. It peaked, then hovered within 2 ticks of the top for almost 30 sec to allow an exit with about 2 ticks. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 1 min and another 4 ticks in the next 27 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.19.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 042015

3/19/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 295K
Actual: 291K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008282
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008285 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008277 – 0831:14 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008273 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008262 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008292 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008301 (just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report came in narrowly better than expected with 4k offset. This caused a quick and unsustainable long bump of 3 ticks that would have nearly reached the 13 SMA, then fallen 8 ticks in the next min to the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner tiers, so cancel the order.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.19.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 042015

Caption for 3/19:
3/19/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 7.2
Actual: 5.0
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008287
1st Peak @ 0.008290 – 1000:12 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008279 – 1004 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008293 – 1018 (18 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008285 – 1041 (41 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell narrowly short of the forecast with a delta of only 2.2 pts, causing a slow developing long spike of 3 ticks that took 12 sec to peak on the 200 SMA. With the results, the 200 SMA and only 2 ticks movement after 10 sec, cancel the order. Otherwise you would have been filled long at 0.008290 then seen it hover 1-2 ticks in the red before reversing further. It fell 11 ticks in 4 min to cross the 50/100 SMA then ascended for a 2nd peak of only 3 more ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot in 14 min. Then it fell 8 ticks in 23 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.24.2015

CPI Comments Off

Apr 072015

Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008388
1st Peak @ 0.008364 – 0832:40 (3 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.008396 – 0847 (17 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 0.008361 – 0949 (79 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.008368 – 0953 (83 min)
7 ticks

Notes: The core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1% while the broader reading matched the forecast. This caused a 24 tick short spike that started just above the 13 SMA and fell to reach the R1 Mid Pivot after more than 2.5 min. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.008380 with 4 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it slowly fall and steadily drop after the initial retracement at 10 sec. A patient exit would have secured up to 16 ticks as opposed to a quicker exit with only 5-6 ticks. After the spike, it reversed 32 ticks in 14 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 35 ticks in the next hour to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and reach the OOD.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 082015

3/25/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -1.4%
Previous Revision: -0.8% to 2.0%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.008381 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008414 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))33 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008383 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008392 – 0830:37 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Continued Pullback to 0.009395 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008382 – 0845 (15 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008371 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008361 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008391 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008400 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Solidly bearish report caused an abnormal large whipsaw that greatly exceeded the threshold of the range of expectation. We saw a 33 tick long spike to the R2 Mid Pivot that collapsed as quickly as it started. This would have filled both tiers and stopped you out with a total loss of about 25 ticks. After the collapse, it pulled back 9 ticks in 30 sec, then another 3 ticks in the next 3 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 11 min to the 50 SMA. This report was already a risk 3 due to other antics, so this comes a little less surprising.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.26.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 082015

3/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 282K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008434
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008432 – 0.008436 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008425 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008414 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008442 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008454 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 9k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 4 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until about 10 min after the report when something else probably caused it fall about 15 ticks then continue to drift lower.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.2.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 082015

4/2/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 268K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008367
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008354 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008360 – 0831:11 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008348 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 0852 (22 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008355 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008347 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008379 (on the HOD) / 0.008386 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 18k offset while the concurrent trade balance report came in about 6B better than the forecast. This caused a slow developing short spike of 13 ticks that crossed the OOD, LOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. Since it took 25 sec to cross 0.008355, you should have cancelled the order. If you did not your inner long entry would have filled then allowed about 4 ticks to be captured as it hovered on the OOD. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 15 min to the OOD / 50 SMA.

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