Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/16/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 284K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008398
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008409 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008395 – 0834:26 (5 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008406 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 0844 (14 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008389 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008407 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008418 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 10k offset while the concurrent BLDG Permits / Housing Starts also moderately disappointed. This caused a quick long spike of 10 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the 100 SMA then eked out 1 more tick in 25 sec. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.008407 with 1 tick to spare, then hovered near the top for about 90 sec before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min after crossing the 20 SMA. This would have allowed up to about 10 ticks to be captured with patience. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 6 min before reversing 9 ticks in 3 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/16/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 6.5
Actual: 7.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008404
1st Peak @ 0.008396 – 1000:37 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008391 – 1006 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008398 – 1010 (10 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008378 – 1055 (55 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008399 – 1114 (74 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report narrowly exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 1.0 pts, causing a short spike of 8 ticks in 37 sec that started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the PP Pivot / OOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 0.8400 with no slippage, then seen it trickle lower and hover near the bottom to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured. After that it continued to hover for 2 min and fell for another 5 ticks. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a final peak of 13 more ticks in 45 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 19 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.17.2015

CPI Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/17/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008421
1st Peak @ 0.008434 – 0830:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008409 – 0831:22 (2 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.008423 – 0834 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008390 – 0857 (27 min)
33 ticks

Notes: The core reading matched the forecast and the broader reading also matched the forecast. This caused a 13 tick long spike that started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and touch the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.008426 with 1 tick of slippage. You would have seen it climb a few more ticks then hover just below the R1 Pivot. With the matching results and hovering, look to exit or reverse the order there with about 5 ticks. After that it reversed 25 ticks in a little over a minute to the OOD. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA before reversing 33 ticks in 23 min to the S1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.17.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/17/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 93.8
Actual: 95.9
Previous Revision: +1.8 to 93.0
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008405 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008399 – 1001:11 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008414 – 1004:08 (5 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008399 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008391 (in between the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the OOD) / 0.008421 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The report came in higher than the forecast by 2.1 points along with a bullish revision of 1.8 pts. This caused a slow developing short spike of 6 ticks that crossed the 100 /50 SMAs and reached the S1 Mid Pivot early in the :02 bar. Since it took so long to achieve the move, cancel the order after 20 sec to play it safe. After the spike, it reversed 15 ticks in 3 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 164’01
1st Peak @ 164’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 164’15 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’14 – 0920 (50 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 165’00 – 0951 (81 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.2% margins with modest upward previous revisions. PPI also released at the same time and was mildly disappointing. This caused a long spike for 20 ticks immediately that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and reach the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it hovered in the area near the top for 9 sec before backing off. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 164’05 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. This would have allowed an exit with the hovering around 164’18 with 13 ticks. After a 6 tick reversal on the next bar, it continued to step higher about 4 times to reach the R4 Mid Pivot on the final peak for 25 more ticks in 48 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 31 min to the R3 Pivot.

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 4.8.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/8/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.43M
Actual: 10.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.04M
Actual: 0.82M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.83M
Actual: -0.25M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 52.74
1st Peak @ 52.29 – 1030:46 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 52.64 – 1034 (4 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 51.38 – 1044 (14 min)
136 ticks

Reversal to 51.94 – 1059 (29 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Epic gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a moderate short spike that started on the 200 SMA and fell for a total of 45 ticks in 46 sec as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 52.60 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it chop twice between the low point and S1 Mid Pivot, so set your profit target at about 52.36 and wait for it to fill. It would have filled at 25 sec, then trickled a few more ticks lower before reversing 35 ticks in 3 min to cross the S1 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA. Then it (predictably) fell another 91 ticks in 10 min on a 2nd peak due to the historically high oil gain. After that it reversed 38 ticks in 15 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 4.15.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/15/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.06M
Actual: 1.29M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.20M
Actual: -2.07M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.89M
Actual: 2.02M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 53.72
1st Peak @ 54.85 – 1031:16 (2 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 54.55 – 1033 (3 min)
30 ticks

Final Peak @ 55.87 – 1140 (70 min)
215 ticks

Reversal to 55.44 – 1155 (85 min)
43 ticks

Notes: First time since early January that the crude figures came in short of the forecast. Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a choppy setup just before the launch to result in the JOBB pending orders cancelled. Then it climbed 113 ticks in 76 sec, crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R2 Pivot near the pinnacle as it extended the HOD. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 1 min before stepping higher for a final peak of 102 more ticks in a little over an hour to the R3 Pivot. After that it reversed 43 ticks in 15 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA. Even with the JOBB orders rejected, recognize the bullish opportunity and jump in long manually late on the first peak, and/or after the initial reversal for the 2nd peak.

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 4.22.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/22/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.89M
Actual: 5.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.70M
Actual: -2.14M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.18M
Actual: 0.40M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 56.08
1st Peak @ 56.92 – 1030:59 (1 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 56.64 – 1032 (2 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 57.19 – 1033 (3 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 56.60 – 1036 (6 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. This caused an initial long spike of 22 ticks 2 sec premature then reversed just after the new bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 56.20 with 2 ticks of slippage then stopped a few sec later on the reversal with a 17 tick loss (2 ticks of slippage). After that it climbed safely for a 1st peak of 84 ticks to the PP Pivot that peaked as the :31 bar expired. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 1 min before climbing another 27 ticks in 1 min. After that it reversed 59 ticks in 3 min to reach the 13 SMA. Then it continued to chop sideways between 56.64 and the PP Pivot for about an hour.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/9/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.623
1st Peak @ 2.535 – 1030:29 (1 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 2.572 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 2.540 – 1046 (16 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 2.570 – 1100 (30 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 2.542 – 1134 (64 min)
26 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short move that initially fell to reach the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. Then it trickled lower to cross the S3 Mid Pivot in the next 28 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.591 with about 22 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to fall until it hovered around 2.556 to allow about 35 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 37 ticks in to the next bar to nearly reach the S2 Pivot before pulling back 32 ticks in 14 min to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 14 min before pulling back 26 ticks in 34 min.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/16/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 52B
Actual: 63B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.606
1st Peak @ 2.545 – 1030:00 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 2.564 – 1034 (4 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 2.547 – 1039 (9 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 2.593 – 1103 (33 min)
46 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.690 – 1239 (129 min)
143 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short move that fell to reach the S1 Mid Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.555 with abnormally high 41 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it hover just below the fill point for about 15 sec to allow up to 5 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 3 min before pulling back 17 ticks in 5 min. After that it reversed 46 ticks in 33 min to the 200 SMA, and another 97 ticks in the next 100 min after crossing the R2 Mid Pivot.

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