Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-15 ( 1 Min) 6.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/16/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.11M
Actual: 1.28M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.10M
Actual: 1.04M
Previous revision: +0.03 to 1.17M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008110
1st Peak @ 0.008121 – 0830:02 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008111 – 0833 (3 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008117 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008110 – 0837 (7 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly bullish but also conflicting with the BLDG Permit exceeding the forecast by 0.17M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.06M with a large upward revision. This caused a long move of 11 ticks that started just above the 50 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it receded and hovered. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008115 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it backed off quickly to hover at Breakeven to allow an exit with 0-2 ticks. After that it reversed a total of 10 ticks in 2 min to the OOD before pulling back 6 ticks about 1 min later to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

CPI, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/18/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 278K
Actual: 267K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008155
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008180 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008161 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008173 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008156 – 0841 (11 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008143 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008135 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008167 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.008175 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 11k better than the forecast but was offset by a bearish CPI report released concurrently. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks that crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD before reversing. This would have filled both short entries making the average short position 0.008171. It reversed quickly to hover about 10 ticks below the peak , then eventually dipped another 9 ticks to the 200 SMA to allow up to 18 total ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 2 min before reversing 17 ticks in 7 min after crossing all 3 Major SMAs.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/18/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 8.1
Actual: 15.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008156
1st Peak @ 0.008147 – 1000:01 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008155 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008145 – 1012 (12 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008133 – 1046 (46 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.008152 – 1130 (90 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of 7.1 pts, causing a short spike of 9 ticks in 1 sec that started just below the 13 SMA and fell to cross the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 0.008151 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover 2-3 ticks lower for 12 sec. Look to exit there with 2 ticks. It retreated, then fell again to hover in the same area late in the bar before reversing 8 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 9 min as the 13 SMA started encroaching as resistance. After that it fell for a final peak of 14 more ticks in 34 min before reversing 19 ticks in 44 min to the 200 SMA. As it fell it used the 13/20 SMAs for resistance and after the reversal, they were used as support.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.23.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/23/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: -0.7% to -0.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: -1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -1.0%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008082 (shift down 2 ticks to 0.008080)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008191 – 0832:28 (3 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008078 – 0836:52 (7 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008064 – 0857 (27 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008068 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 0.008058 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008090 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.008101 (in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The core reading matched with a moderate bearish revision while the regular reading fell short of the forecast with a moderate bearish revision. This caused a small long move of 11 ticks in about 2.5 min with a slow approach. Since the spike moved only 6 ticks in 20 sec, cancel the order. After the peak it reversed 13 ticks in 4 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then another 14 ticks in 20 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.25.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 292015

6/25/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 271K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008098
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008092 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008096 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008088 – 0837 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008100 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008089 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008078 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.008107 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008118 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in matching for a dull reaction. This caused a short spike of 6 ticks in 21 sec. Cancel the order on the matching report and small reaction. It reversed 4 ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 17 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

Final GDP Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/24/2015 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 149’11
1st Peak@ 149’08 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-3 ticks

Reversal to 149’14 – 0830:00 (2 min)
6 ticks

Pullback to 149’08 – 0830:11 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 149’22 – 0838 (8 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 149’07 – 0905 (35 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing a small whipsaw that fell 3 ticks then reversed 6 ticks and fell 6 ticks in a total of 11 sec. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 149’09, then you would have been stopped at 149’13 for a 4 tick loss. The instability was due to the match, but after the initial 50 sec, it trended into a long move of 14 ticks in 7 min to cross the R1 Pivot before reversing 15 ticks in 27 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot.

CL 07-15 (1 Min) 6.17.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 072015

6/17/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.66M
Actual: -2.68M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.31M
Actual: 0.46M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.03M
Actual: 0.11M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 61.09
1st Peak @ 60.59 – 1031:03 (2 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 60.77 – 1037 (7 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 58.95 – 1206 (96 min)
214 ticks

Reversal to 59.44 – 1226 (116 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. This caused a short spike of 50 ticks that started above the R3 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 60.97 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it would have slowly trickled lower to the R2 Pivot and hovered to allow 30-35 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 5 min before stepping lower for a final peak of 164 more ticks in 89 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 49 ticks in 20 min after crossing the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot.

CL 08-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 082015

6/24/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.10M
Actual: -4.93M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.30M
Actual: 0.68M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 1.84M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 61.30
1st Peak @ 61.50 – 1030:00 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 60.99 – 1030:36 (1 min)
51 ticks

Continued Reversal to 60.76 – 1035 (5 min)
74 ticks

Pullback to 61.45 – 1043 (13 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 60.98 – 1056 (26 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a bit of indecision as it climbed 20 ticks immediately then started to reverse after 4 sec and fell 51 ticks in 36 sec to the 100/200 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.43 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then it would have bounced around the fill point for 4 sec before falling. Since it made a double top with the high from 10 min earlier and the HOD was still above, look to exit quickly to limit the loss. If not the stop would have been taken shortly after. After the reversal, it chopped and continued to reverse for another 23 ticks in 4 min. Then it pulled back 69 ticks in 8 min before reversing 47 ticks in 13 min to the 200 SMA.

NG 07-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 132015

6/18/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 95B
Actual: 89B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.840
Whipsaw between 2.833 and 2.882 – 1030:00 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 2.817 – 1030:25 (1 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 2.844 – 1035 (5 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 2.823 – 1041 (11 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.874 – 1053 (23 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 2.828 – 1112 (42 min)
46 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly lesser gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a whipsaw initially that spanned 49 ticks from the PP Pivot on the upper end to the 200 SMA on the lower end in 1 sec. Then it fell 23 ticks from the origin in 25 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, you would have filled long and then been stopped out for about 22 ticks with slippage. After the reversal it pulled back 27 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 21 ticks in 6 min. Then it pulled back 51 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the PP Pivot before reversing 45 ticks in 42 min. After that it traded sideways for almost an hour then fell.

NG 08-15 (1 Min) 6.25.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 132015

6/25/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 75B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.845
1st Peak @ 2.804 – 1030:06 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 2.839 – 1030:29 (1 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 2.803 – 1033 (3 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 2.850 – 1039 (9 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.800 – 1049 (19 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 2.831 – 1105 (35 min)
31 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly lesser gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a relatively slow short spike of 41 ticks in 6 sec that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 2.834 with 1 tick of slippage then seen it fall another 30 ticks then reverse slowly for 35 ticks in 23 sec. After that it pulled back 36 ticks for a double bottom in 2 min. Look to exit quickly after seeing it start to back off with about 20 ticks. After the double bottom, it reversed 47 ticks in 6 min to nearly reach the HOD before falling for a minor 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 31 ticks in 16 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

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