CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2_24_2016

2/24/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.43M
Actual: 3.50M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.03M
Actual: -2.24M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.71M
Actual: -1.66M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.92
1st Peak @ 31.34 – 1030:28 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 30.78 – 1031:35 (2 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 31.58 – 1042 (12 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 30.94 – 1054 (24 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 31.27 – 1100 (30 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 30.76 – 1118 (48 min)
51 ticks

Expected Fill: 31.06 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 31.33 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 31.31 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Moderate long spike peaked at the OOD then hovered before reversing. Then a large reversal to the 3 Major SMAs before a 2nd Peak to breach the HOD. Then it fell strongly off of the HOD to the S2 Mid Pivot.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016
Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2_18_2016

2/18/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 3.92M
Actual: 2.15M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.50M
Actual: 3.04M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.50M
Actual: 1.40M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 33.88
1st Peak @ 33.27 – 1100:22 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 33.67 – 1103 (3 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 32.75 – 1110 (10 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 33.20 – 1117 (17 min)
45 ticks

Double Bottom @ 32.72 – 1136 (36 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 33.38 – 1211 (71 min)
66 ticks

Expected Fill: 33.75 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 33.28 – 47 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 33.53 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Nice healthy short spike of 61 ticks would have yielded up to 47 ticks of profit after 22 sec. After a reversal, it fell for a nice 2nd peak to the area of the PP Pivot. Several opportunities for trades: sell the :03 bar above the OOD, buy just above the PP Pivot or at 1110 or 1136, or sell just below the R1 Mid Pivot at 1117.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016
Mar 132016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_18_2016

2/18/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -154B
Actual: -158B
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.898
1st Peak @ 1.877 – 1030:33 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.911 – 1046 (16 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 1.877 – 1124 (54 min)
34 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: After a big move on at 10:29:59, we saw no departure more than 10 ticks until 18 sec after the release, so cancel the order.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016
Mar 082016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -82B
Actual: -70B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.051
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1031:17 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 2.029 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.983 – 1128 (58 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 2.003 – 1141 (71 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.041 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.008 – 33 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.008 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Fairly Stable short spike offered a rare no slippage fill then would have targeted the S1 Pivot nicely after about 1.5 min. After a small reversal, it turned into a slow downtrend to gather another 24 ticks and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016
Mar 042016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.6
Actual: 90.7
Previous Revision: -1.3 to 92.0
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008878
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008870 – 0959:53 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008889 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008856 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008871 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008863 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008885 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008894 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot – on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 0.008871 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.008888 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008885 (inner short tier)

Notes: Nice inner tier fill was a bit premature then the news drove the reaction long to fill the inner short tier for about 14 ticks. After that it fell 33 ticks in the next 30 min.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2.9.2016

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2.9.2016
Mar 012016
 

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2_9_2016

2/9/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 360.75
1st Peak @ 359.25 – 1200:20 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 362.50 – 1208 (8 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 360.75 – 1210 (10 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 362.75 – 1218 (18 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1318 (78 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 359.50 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 359.25 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 355.25 (below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move up after small spike

Notes: Dull reaction barely filled then hovered just above the S2 Mid Pivot for 2 min. Look to exit between breakeven and 2 ticks loss. The subsequent swings were also small.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

 Prelim GDP  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016
Feb 282016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_26_2016

2/26/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 166’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’03 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’14 – 0843 (13 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 165’26 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’30 (No SMA / Pivot near)/ 165’27 (above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 166’08 (just below the 50 SMA) / 166’11 (in between the 50 and 100 SMAs)

Expected Fill: 165’30 and 165’27 – both long entries
Best Initial Exit: 166’02 – 11 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’03 (just below the S1 Pivot and the origin) – move lower

Notes: Huge offset in context saw an outer tier fill and still large reversal for a good trap trade setup. Be careful here not to linger too long as the overall news is strong and sure to see short follow through after the reversal. We saw a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 12 min then a reversal.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016
Feb 282016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 166’11
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’28 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’06 – 0831:00 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 0839 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 166’12 – 0855 (25 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 166’05 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entry – 166’18 (on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 166’05 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: stopped at 166’00 for 5 tick loss or if stop disabled – 166’05 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: First reaction we have seen over 9 ticks since the ZB started reacting to this report. The stop may have been disabled do to the speed of the spike. If so, trust the reversal and add a 2nd long position at 165’29 where it hovered before reversing. Then exit at 166’05 where it hovered again. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks before reversing to eclipse the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016
Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 168’03
1st Peak @ 167’18 – 0830:30 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 167’24 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’16 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 158’01 – 0908 (38 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 167’28 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks on fill / 1 tick on stop
Best Initial Exit: 168’02 – stopped for 6 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 167’18 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Should have been a great 2nd peak trade, but spoiled with initially instability as it reversed quickly and sharply after the initial fill to hit the stop. As the results were positive, you could have entered the market short again after the stop out at 167’26 where it hovered on the 100 SMA between 0830:06 and 0830:18 then captured about 7 ticks in 10 sec. Then 2nd peak achieved 2 more ticks then reversed 17 ticks in about 30 min.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016
Feb 232016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -170B
Actual: -152B
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.988
1st Peak @ 2.003 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.983 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.026 – 1042 (12 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.005 – 1049 (19 min)
21 ticks

Double Top @ 2.026 – 1054 (24 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1113 (43 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.999 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 2.001 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.020 – just above the S1 Mid Pivot

Notes: Dull move to barely get a fill long then hover around the fill point for 17 sec for an exit near breakeven. After a reversal it climbed for a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks as it eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then a double top and reversal.

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