6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.13.2015

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.13.2015
Jan 062016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_13_2015

11/13/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 91.3
Actual: 93.1
Previous Revision: -2.1 to 90.0
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008150
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008141 – 1001:05 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008149 – 1003:13 (4 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008157 – 1016 (16 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008144 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008136 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008156 (just above the 200 SMA / OOD) / 0.008165 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The market would not have eclipsed the inner long entry until 55 sec after the report release so cancel. You could have still played the reversal as it hovered below the S1 Mid Pivot for about 20 sec indicating a reversal likely.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 12.11.2015

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 12.11.2015
Jan 062016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 12_11_2015

12/11/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.3
Actual: 91.8
Previous Revision: -1.8 to 91.3
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008287
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008293 – 1000:22 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008282 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008264 – 1008 (8 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008281 (just above the 50 SMA) / 0.008273 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008292 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.008303 (just below the R3 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.008292 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.008282 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008281 (on the 50 SMA)

Notes: Nice inner tier fill and methodical reversal for 10 ticks or much more with patience. Notice that it was ending a long trend from 1 hr earlier that claimed 50 ticks so it was primed to go short.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.29.2015

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.29.2015
Jan 072016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9_29_2015

9/29/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 96.2
Actual: 103.0
Previous revision: -0.2 to 101.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008356
1st Peak @ 0.008344 – 1000:21 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008355 – 1005 (5 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008330 – 1029 (29 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008351 – 1049 (49 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008353 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008345 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008346 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Note how it used the 13 SMA as resistance for the 2nd peak. Several opportunities for short entries after the 1st peak reversal. Then the double bottom on the S1 Pivot was a signal for the reversal.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.27.2015

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.27.2015
Jan 072016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_27_2015

10/27/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 102.5
Actual: 97.6
Previous revision: -0.4 to 102.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008311
1st Peak @ 0.008317 – 1000:21 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008311 – 1001:06 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008318 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008311 – 1008 (8 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008319 – 1020 (20 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008306 – 1106 (66 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008314 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008316 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008318 (just above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Small reaction was constrained by all 3 major SMAs to only yield 6 ticks. Then it cycled twice to claim another tick or 2 on a peak, then reversed to the R2 Pivot.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.24.2015

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.24.2015
Jan 072016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_24_2015

11/24/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 99.3
Actual: 90.4
Previous revision: +1.5 to 99.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008157
1st Peak @ 0.008165 – 1000:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008155 – 1011 (11 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008170 – 1046 (46 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008162 – 1126 (86 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008161 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.008164 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008165 (just above the 100 SMA)

Notes: Reaction was constrained by all 3 major SMAs to only yield 8 ticks despite a large offset. Slow moving reaction for a 2nd peak after 46 min and another 40 min for a small reversal

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.29.2015

 Advance GDP  Comments Off on ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.29.2015
Jan 082016
 

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_29_2015

10/29/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.6%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: +1.6% to 3.9%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 157’22 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 157’13 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’29 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Pullback to 157’15 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’23 – 0831:16 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 157’03 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 157’17 – 0850 (20 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 157’12 (just below the LOD / S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 158’00 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Quick whipsaw that was a few ticks short of the tiers. Notice the hovering on the 200 SMA and for a short opportunity or the hovering later in the :31 bar at 157’16 for a long opportunity. As the report faded, it turned into a selloff.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 9.1.2015

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 09-15 (1 Min) 9.1.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 9_1_2015

9/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.6
Actual: 51.1
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008337
1st Peak @ 0.008355 – 1000:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008341 – 1000:14 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.008351 – 1003 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008333 – 1011 (11 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008343 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008350 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008356 (near the high est’d at 0900) – move down slightly

Notes: Large spike was unsustainable, but still allowed up to 7 ticks to be captured in the early part of the :31 bar. Good reversal opportunity aftert 1005 with a lower pivot high.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.1.2015

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.1.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_1_2015

10/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual: 50.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008367
1st Peak @ 0.008358 – 1000:22 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 1001:47 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008354 – 1018 (18 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008363 – 1025 (25 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008364 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008359 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008355 (just below the 200 SMA) – move up slightly

Notes: Small spike due to minimal offset and strong support at the 50 / 100 SMAs and R1 Mid Pivot. Look for the first sign of hovering or retreat at a level of support and exit quickly. Good 2nd peak opportunity due to sharp reversal after the 1st peak.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.2.2015

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.2.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_2_2015

11/2/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 50.1
Previous revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008299
1st Bar Span 0.008297 to 0.8301 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 2 ticks

Notes: No reaction due to matching report. Cancel the trade.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 12.1.2015

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 12.1.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 12_1_2015

12/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 48.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008123
1st Peak @ 0.008136 – 1000:00 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008126 – 1002:47 (3 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008144 – 1017 (17 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.008136 – 1049 (49 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008128 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008133 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008355 (just below the 200 SMA) – move up slightly

Notes: Small spike due to strong support at the 50 / 100 SMAs and R1 Mid Pivot. Look for the first sign of hovering or retreat at a level of support and exit quickly. Good 2nd peak opportunity due to sharp reversal after the 1st peak.

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