CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.9.2015

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.9.2015
Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12_9_2015

12/9/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: -3.57M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.15M
Actual: 0.79M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.46M
Actual: 5.00M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 38.15
1st Peak @ 38.83 – 1030:26 (1 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 38.52 – 1030:58 (1 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 38.99 – 1036 (6 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 38.03 – 1051 (21 min)
96 ticks

Continued Reversal to 37.07 – 1146 (76 min)
146 ticks

Expected Fill: 38.28 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 38.82 – 54 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 38.55 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Strong reaction for a solid 1st and 2nd peak. Note the doji bars 1035-37 with the R2 Mid Pivot just above as a good indication for a short opportunity.

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015
Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12_16_2015

12/16/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -1.42M
Actual: 4.80M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.95M
Actual: 1.73M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.24M
Actual: 2.56M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 36.69
1st Peak @ 36.06 – 1030:00 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 36.53 – 1030:19 (1 min)
47 ticks

Final Peak @ 35.62 – 1153 (83 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 35.88 – 1157 (87 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 36.54 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 36.16 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 36.18 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Given the current bearish conditions, look to short any reversal in the early going.

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016
Jan 182016
 

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.44M
Actual: -5.09M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.31M
Actual: 10.58M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.03M
Actual: 6.31M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 35.10
1st Peak @ 34.62 – 1030:23 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 34.87 – 1030:51 (1 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 34.17 – 1054 (24 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 34.62 – 1105 (35 min)
45 ticks

Expected Fill: 34.94 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 34.63 – 31 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 34.70 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Notice how the 1032 – 1035 bars could not climb above the 100 / 200 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot area. This presents a great short entry opportunity on the 2nd peak.

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1.13.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1.13.2016
Jan 182016
 

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1_13_2016

1/13/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.50M
Actual: 0.23M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.70M
Actual: 8.44M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.98M
Actual: 6.14M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 31.32
1st Peak @ 30.60 – 1030:33 (1 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 30.78 – 1031:07 (2 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 30.10 – 1039 (9 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 30.95 – 1100 (30 min)
85 ticks

Expected Fill: 31.16 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 30.61 – 55 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 30.80 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Very similar results as last week. Nice spike and 2nd peak to the S1 Mid Pivot. The reversal after the 2nd peak was also large and fast to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot area.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.15.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.15.2016
Jan 192016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_15_2016

1/15/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 158’26
1st Peak @ 159’12 – 0830:42 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 159’04 – 0836 (6 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 159’24 – 0852 (22 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 158’30 – 0909 (39 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 158’30 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 159’11 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 159’11 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Strongly bearish report provided a nice large 1st peak. Expect a 2nd peak and buy the dip at 0836.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.15.2016

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.15.2016
Jan 192016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1_15_2016

1/15/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.7
Actual: 93.3
Previous Revision: +0.8 to 92.6
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008562
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008556 – 1000:46 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008569 – 1003:26 (4 min)
)))13 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008556 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008547 (on the 200 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008568 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008578 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel after 20 sec
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Slow mover due to the narrow offset. Still it reversed after the initial move as usual.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015
Jan 202016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9_24_2015

9/24/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: -2.0%
Regular Actual: -2.0%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 2.2%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008380
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008375 – 0830:43 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008389 – 0833:13 (4 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008375 – 0855 (25 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008369 (in between the 100 SMA and R2 Pivot/200 SMA) / 0.008358 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008391 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008402 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner short tier and a mostly matching report.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.27.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.27.2015
Jan 202016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_27_2015

10/27/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.2%
Regular Forecast: -1.1%
Regular Actual: -1.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -2.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008319
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008325 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008319 – 0830:54 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008327 – 0831:58 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008306 – 0848 (18 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008307 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.008296 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008329 (just above the HOD) / 0.008342 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner short tier and a mostly matching report.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.25.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.25.2015
Jan 202016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_25_2015

11/25/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: 1.6%
Regular Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to -0.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008150
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008146 to 0.008151 – 0831 (1 min)
)))-4/+1 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008140 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008145 – 0909 (39 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008139 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008130 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008161 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 0.008173 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner long tier and a mostly matching report.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.20.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.20.2016
Jan 252016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_20_2016

1/20/2016 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 160’16 – shift 2 ticks lower to 160’14
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 160’23 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 160’10 – 0831:39 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Pullback to 160’19 – 0838 (8 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 160’03 – 0855 (25 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 160’18 – 0919 (49 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 160’07 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 160’21 or 160’22 (on or just below the 100 SMA)

Expected Fill: 160’21 or 160’22 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 160’11 – 10 or 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 160’14 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Nice fill with 1-2 ticks to spare and reversal for up to 11 ticks. After that it continued to fallfor 25 min, then pulled back.

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