NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11.19.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11.19.2015
Feb 022016
 

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11_19_2015

11/19/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 23B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.333
1st Peak @ 2.370 – 1030:01 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 2.324 – 1030:33 (1 min)
46 ticks

Pullback to 2.356 – 1033 (3 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 2.340 – 1037 (7 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.376 – 1045 (15 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.3254- 1053 (23 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.351 (long)
Slippage: 8 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.369 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.360 (just above the R2 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Average reaction, but shortly sustained. As it peaked quickly then backed off and hovered, exit quickly to lock in the ebbing profit. Plenty of big swings after that in about 30 min.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 11.25.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 01-16 (1 Min) 11.25.2015
Feb 062016
 

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 11_25_2015

11/25/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1200 EST)
Forecast: 5B
Actual: 9B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.327
1st Peak @ 2.339 – 1200:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 2.3219- 1030:02 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.347 – 1216 (16 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 2.309 – 1240 (40 min)
38 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.3339 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.319 – 20 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Near match, the day before Thanksgiving with an abnormal release time cause a small whipsaw to stop you out. Then a delayed 2nd peak and reversal. Good reversal opportunity at 1218 with 3 bars unable to push the HOD any higher and the R1 Pivot looming 2 ticks higher.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.3.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.3.2015
Feb 062016
 

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12_3_2015

12/3/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -22B
Actual: -53B
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.164
1st Peak @ 2.190 – 1030:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 2.164 – 1030:54 (1 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 2.174 – 1037 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 2.145 – 1106 (36 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 2.177 – 1136 (66 min)
32 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.179 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.182 – 3 ticks (likely exit 2.177 – 2 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.201 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Smaller than average move climbed to hit the PP Pivot then recoil to hover around the old HOD. As it hovered for about 30 sec, look to exit near breakeven.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.10.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.10.2015
Feb 062016
 

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12_10_2015

12/10/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -64B
Actual: -76B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.062
1st Peak @ 2.096 – 1031:16 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 2.078 – 1033 (3 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.099 – 1038 (8 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 2.076 – 1044 (14 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.009 – 1223 (113 min)
90 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.081 (long)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.095 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.107 (just above the R1 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: A late peaking reaction as the PP Pivot held it lower for a while. In this situation you could have exited quickly with up to 8 ticks or waited for the small recoil and later rise and achieved a few more ticks. It then climbed for a minor 2nd peak before collapsing in the next 2 hrs.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.17.2015

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.17.2015
Feb 072016
 

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12_17_2015

12/17/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -34B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.833
Whipsaw between 1.807 and 1.845 – 1030:04 (1 min)
38 ticks span

Pullback to 1.801 – 1030:57 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.813 – 1031:09 (2 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.784 – 1034 (4 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.835 – 1041 (11 min)
51 ticks

Pullback to 1.773 – 1055 (25 min)
62 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.818 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.840 – 22 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Whipsaw initially that was a precursor for large swings in the next several min, then long time frames.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.5.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.5.2016
Feb 072016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_5_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_5_2016

2/5/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 189K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 151K
Previous Revision: -30K to 262K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (PROFITABLE WITH SETTINGS)
Started @ 163’04
Whipsaw between 163’16 and 162’25 – 0830:03
23 ticks

1st Peak @ 162’21 – 0830:41 (1 Min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 163’22 – 0836 (6 Min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’14 – 0849 (19 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 163’01 – 0853 (23 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’05 – 0858 (28 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 162’30 – 0952 (82 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’12 (long) then stopped/reversed @163’07
Slippage: 4 ticks / 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’22 – net 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 162’22 and 162’13 (just below the PP and S1 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Initially Indecisive with a long then short whipsaw due to the conflict of the disappointing jobs, but drop in the rate. Then it fell to settle lower as the :31 bar progressed. This is why we use the “Reverse if stopped” feature on this report. After stopped for a 5 tick loss (5 tick stop + 0 tick slippage, you would have been able to make up to 17 ticks on the following short move for a net of 12 ticks with the ideal placement of the profit target just below the PP Pivot. It also hovered in that area to offer a cue to exit. Then as the initial reaction was indecisive, we saw several choppy swings as it eventually fell lower.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.5.2015

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.5.2015
Feb 072016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_5_2016

2/5/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 189K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 151K
Previous Revision: -30K to 262K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9338.0
1st Peak @ 9296.0 – 0830:17 (1 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 9357.0 – 0831:41 (2 min)
122 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9282.5 – 0836 (6 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 9403.5 – 0846 (16 min)
242 ticks

Continued Reversal to 9467.5 – 0916 (46 min)
370 ticks

Expected Fill: 9330.0 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9297.0 – 66 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9305.0 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Nice 1st peak allowing over 60 ticks to be captured. Then a larger reversal followed by a labored 2nd peak, then a drawn out large reversal. As the bonds were conflicting and the results were conflicting, reversals would have been ideal to trade.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.26.2016

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.26.2016
Feb 072016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1_26_2016

1/26/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 96.6
Actual: 98.1
Previous revision: -0.2 to 96.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008453
1st Peak @ 0.008446 – 1000:51 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008452 – 1003 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008438 – 1018 (18 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.008454 – 1058 (28 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008450 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008446 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008446 (just below the PP Pivot and 50/100 SMAs)

Notes: Reaction was constrained by several layers of support, so keep the profit target small and notice the hovering around the 50/100 SMAs and the PP Pivot. After a reversal back to the 200 SMA, it stepped lower for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to the LOD. Then it wrestled to get above the PP Pivot for a reversal to the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016
Feb 072016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1_28_2016

1/28/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -1.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: -5.1%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -0.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008419
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008428 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008421 – 0830:19 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008433 – 0841 (11 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008413 – 0901 (31 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008407 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.008395 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008431 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.008439 (just above the OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner short tier. Nice reversal opportunity for a short entry at the PP Pivot

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.29.2016

 Advance GDP  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.29.2016
Feb 082016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_29_2016

1/29/2016 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 2.0%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 161’16 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’09 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’15 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 160’30 – 0909 (39 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 161’15 – 0928 (58 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 161’04 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 161’26 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Slow and small move for only 7 ticks fell short of the inner long entry, so cancel the order. It reversed 6 ticks, then fell for a nice 2nd peak of 11 more ticks. Then it reversed 17 ticks to the R2 Pivot.

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