Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.28.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Feb 122014

1/28/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 78.3
Actual: 80.7
Previous revision: -0.6 to 77.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009731
1st Peak @ 0.009720 – 1001 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009710 – 1004 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.009724 – 1029 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a small margin of 2.4 points. This caused a 11 tick short spike on the :01 bar that was tame and sustained, as it started on the falling 13 SMA, and ran out of momentum just before reaching the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.009725 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall a few more sticks and stall at about +4 ticks. With the 200 SMA looming lower, you would be safe to grab a few ticks and exit at about 0.009721. Without much of a reversal, it continued lower for another 10 ticks on the next 3 bars, crossing the 200 SMA and the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed for 14 ticks in the next 25 min, as it reached the 50 SMA.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.17.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/17/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EST)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.01M
Actual: 0.99M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 1.02M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 1.00M
Previous revision: +0.02M to 1.11M
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 0.009583
1st Peak @ 0.009579 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.009591 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009599 – 0905 (35 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report was matching overall with the BLDG Permits slightly falling short and the Housing starts slightly exceeding the forecast. This caused a muted 4 tick short move that eclipsed the 100/200 SMAs, then pulled back. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009580 with no slippage, then seen it get stuck between breakeven and -1 tick for most of the bar. Due to the matching report and strong support barrier, look to exit with 1 tick loss. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 6 min and another 8 ticks 30 min later, as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell back to the 200 and PP Pivot 15 min later.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.17.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/17/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 83.4
Actual: 80.4
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE/REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009588 (recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009598 – 0955:14 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009584 – 1003 (8 min)
)))-14 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009580 (no SMA/Pivot within 5 ticks) / 0.009574 (in between the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD)
Short entries – 0.009597 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009603 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in mildly lower than the forecast by 3.0 points causing a long impulse on the 6J for 10 ticks as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. That would have easily filled the inner short entry with 1 tick to spare. Then it would have hovered around the R1 Mid Pivot for 2 bars before falling. Move the stop loss to 0.009601, just above the HOD (-4 ticks), then be patient and wait for it to fall to at least the 50/100 SMAs, and likely the 200 SMA / PP Pivot. It reached both barriers at 10:01 and 10:03 respectively, allowing up to 12 or so ticks to be captured with ease. This is a Trap Trade that you can be patient and wait for the reversal for several bars. It continued to hover near the PP Pivot and 200 SMA for 10 min before it rose again and traded sideways.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.16.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/16/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 8.8
Actual: 9.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’28
1st Peak @ 131’03 – 1002 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 131’07 – 1007 (7 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 130’30 – 1026 (26 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 0.6 pts, causing a slightly delayed long spike on the ZB that started on the 100 SMA, and crossed the 50 SMA and the R2 Mid Pivot on the :01 bar, and the HOD on the :02 bar. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 130’31 with 1 tick of slippage. Due to the location of the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD where the :01 bar was peaking, and the narrow offset of the report, look to exit at breakeven or 1 tick of profit. The extended reaction and size of the move were unusual for this situation as it achieved 7 ticks on the :02 bar and 4 more ticks on the :07 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 19 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.14.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 130’30
1st Peak @ 130’22 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 131’01 – 0846 (16 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report was mixed overall, but the 0.3% positive offset on the core reading dominated the bearish revisions and matching regular reading. This caused a moderate short reaction of 8 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD/S1 Pivot, then retreated leaving 4 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 130’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 3-4 ticks on the S1 Pivot when it hovered for about 10 sec. After the retreat late in the :31 bar, it continued to reverse on the :32 bar to the PP Pivot for 9 ticks. Then it chopped between the PP Pivot and 50 SMA before gaining 2 more ticks on the :46 bar. After that it fell to get stuck on the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/23/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009612 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009624 – 0830:19 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009614 – 0830:47 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 0.009625 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009610 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009602 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009593 (just below the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009622 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009632 (no SMA/Pivot within 5 ticks)

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 5K jobs causing a long impulse on the 6J for 12 ticks initially as it hit the R3 Mid Pivot. That would have easily filled the inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare. Then it would have retreated to give you up to 8 ticks later in the bar for an ideal exit. If you left the order open, it would have tested the R3 Mid Pivot one more time, then engaged in a slower reversal of 15 ticks in 8 min back to the R2 Pivot. This would have offered up to 10-11 ticks to be captured on the 100 Pivot. After that it rallied long and sustained the bullish move.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.16.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/16/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 327K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009565 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 5 ticks span of movement within first 20 sec
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009555 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.009545 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009574 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 0.009583 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching again and the CPI releasing at the same time was matching. This should have been a good setup for the trap trade approach, but was dull instead. This caused a muted reaction of only 5 ticks on the :31 bar in the first 20 sec. With no impulse to fill either trap order, cancel the order. Notice if you left the trap on the board, the inner tier sell order may have filled late in the :31 bar, then only given 4-5 ticks before continuing upward. With this report, we are looking to take advantage of a quick impulse and the sharp pullback, not a late tame move.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 052014

1/23/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.59M
Actual: 0.99M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.08M
Actual: 2.12M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.85M
Actual: -3.21M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.14
1st Peak @ 97.25 – 1101 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 96.83 – 1103 (3 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.79 – 1127 (27 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 97.58 – 1135 (35 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a nearly matching moderate gain, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest gain was expected. The near match on the crude and gasoline figures acted like a wet blanket initially as it only moved 11 ticks from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 97.24 with no slippage about 10 sec into the bar if you did not cancel the order, then seen it fall back and hover between 97.15 and 97.22 for the majority of the :31 bar. Look to exit with about a 5 tick loss on the initial dull movement. After the peak, it reversed for 42 ticks in the next 2 bars, nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. Given the results, the distillates figures should eventually dominate with the largest offset and the impact of the winter. A buy after the big red :32 bar would have been savvy. It rallied for a slow developing, but substantial 2nd peak of 65 ticks in the next 24 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in 8 min to the 13 SMA and settled to trade sideways near the R2 Pivot.

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.15.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 052014

1/15/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.61M
Actual: -7.66M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.54M
Actual: 6.18M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.46M
Actual: -1.02M
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 93.45
1st Peak @ 93.88 – 1032 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 93.60 – 1034 (4 min)
28 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.46 – 1127 (57 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 94.13 – 1139 (69 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Large draw in inventories when a slight draw was expected, while gasoline saw a large gain when a moderate gain was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a modest gain was expected. Even though divergent, these numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected and the draw on distillates was not surprising due to the extreme cold weather. With the results being divergent, the draws on the crude and distillated won the influence battle overall with a 43 tick long spike that crossed the R3 Mid Pivot on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 93.57 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit 93.75 quickly and hover in that area. With the R3 Mid Pivot close by, you could look to exit near 93.75 or be patient and place a target at about 93.85 and wait for it to fill. This would allow 18-28 ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 28 ticks in the next 2 bars, back to the area near the 13 SMA. Then it rallied and developed into an Upward FAN, stepping higher to 94.46, above the R3 Pivot, nearly an hour after the report. After that, it surrendered 33 ticks in 12 min back to the 50 SMA, then rebounded to settle into trading between the R3 Pivot and HOD for a while.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.6.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 142014

1/6/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 53.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009545
1st Peak @ 0.009555 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009562 – 1007 (7 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009548 – 1015 (15 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1.6 points. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks on the :01 bar as it started just below the S1 Pivot, then crossed the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.009549 with 1 tick of slippage on a premature move at the end of the :00 bar, then seen it continue to rally to hit the 100 SMA. It backed off and hovered about 2 ticks lower than the 100 SMA. Set your profit target at 0.009555 or 0.009556, just above the 100 SMA and wait for the fill, which would have happened on the :02 bar. After the 1st peak, it continued to climb for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 7 min, crossing the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in 8 min, back to the 50 SMA.

Older Entries Newer Entries