Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 50.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 135’12
1st Peak @ 135’06 – 1001 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 135’22 – 1006 (6 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 135’28 – 1103 (63 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 0.3 pts offset, but above 50.0. We shifted over to the ZB for this report due to the impact of US news on the bonds. We saw a drop of only 6 ticks that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. Then after 30 sec, it reversed and continued on the next 5 bars for 16 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 135’09 with no slippage. You would have seen it hover between your fill point and 135’06. I would move the stop loss to 135’10 or 11 on the long side of the 200 SMA and place a profit target at 135’07, just beneath the S1 Mid Pivot. If the target was in place before 21 seconds elapsed, it would have filled for 2 ticks, otherwise you would have seen your stop fill for -1 or -2 ticks. Due to the matching news, the DX initially fell, then rallied, causing the ZB to do the opposite. After the initial reversal of 16 ticks in 6 min, it continued higher for an extended reversal of 22 ticks on the 1103 bar at the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 7.3.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 161K
Actual: 188K
Previous revision: -1K to 134K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010062
1st Peak @ 0.010030 – 0816 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.010048 – 0817 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010026 – 0833 (18 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.010045 – 0849 (34 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 27k more jobs created than expected along with a negligible downward revision of 1k jobs causing an average 32 tick short spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Pivot on its path. It left 6 ticks on the wick naked as the reversal from the 1st peak low began late on the :16 bar and culminated on the :17 bar for 18 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010054 with 4 ticks of slippage, then look to exit just below the 200 SMA at about 0.010037 when it was hovering for about 17 ticks. After the :17 bar, it fell and chopped sideways mostly below the 200 SMA and eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks on the :33 bar. Then it reversed slowly for 19 ticks in about 16 min back to the 50 SMA.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 7.11.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 192013

7/11/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 517.25
1st Peak @ 510.25 – 1201 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 518.00 – 1201 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 527.75 – 1259 (59 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a mild short spike of only 28 ticks over 1 bars, that started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs then fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot for 28 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 514.00 with 1 ticks of slippage if you did not tighten the bracket or near 515.50 if you had. It came down to the low immediately, then hovered for 9 sec between 510.25 and about 512.50. Due to the extension of the LOD and hovering, look to exit at about 511.00. After 9 sec, it retreated back to the 200 SMA in 20 more seconds, then fell to close the bar near its low position. After 3 more bars chopped in between the S2 and S3 Mid Pivots, it reversed for 70 ticks in about an hour, eclipsing the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it backed off of the high and traded sideways for a while.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 6.28.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/28/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 528.50
1st Peak @ 525.00 – 1200:00 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 541.00 – 1200:08 (1 min)
-64 ticks

2nd Peak @ 516.00 – 1200:40 (1 min)
50 ticks

Final Peak @ 511.00 – 1202 (2 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 524.50 – 1207 (7 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a dangerous scenario of a double wicker. It shot short for 13 ticks in the opening second, then reversed long for 64 ticks in the next 8 sec. It methodically fell for a total of 100 ticks after that to the end of the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 526.00 with 4ticks of slippage, then your opposite entry would have filled at about 532.00 with 8 ticks of slippage resulting in a 24 tick loss. It is unclear what caused the dangerous reaction, and very little banner news is available to discuss the results of the report. The overall trend ended up being quite bearish as the dust settled, the ZC was trading about 50 ticks lower than where it was before the report. It achieved a final peak at 511.00 on the :02 bar for 70 ticks from the origin, before reversing back to the 20 SMA and S4 Pivot for 54 ticks. Then it drifted lower and traded sideways until the session closed. After the previous 5 reports we had observed were safe, this was quite a disappointment.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.25.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/25/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 75.2
Actual: 81.4
Previous revision: -1.9 to 74.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’21
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 133’31 – 1020 (20 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 134’17 – 1110 (70 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and again saw the highest reading in many years. This report was scheduled at the same time as New Home Sales which came in very bullish too. The New Home sales came in a few sec before this report causing a bit of a pullback after the fill. With JOBB you would have filled short at 134’19 with no slippage, then a 4 tick stop would have been hit, but a 5 tick stop would have ridden out the pullback. Then the :01 bar eclipsed the PP Pivot for 10 ticks and pulled back about 5 ticks. Then it conquered the PP Pivot after 3 min and achieved a 2nd peak for 12 more ticks in 20 min, eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it slowly reversed for 18 ticks back to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA about 50 min later.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual: 3.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 3.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010269
Premature spike @ 0.010275 – 0830 (0 min)
6 ticks

1st peak @ 0.010239 – 0831 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.010255 – 0833 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010233 – 0902 (32 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.010262 – 0921 (51 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in overall bullish and impressed the market. This caused a 6 tick fake spike long followed by the true 30 tick short move that bottomed on the :31 bar, hitting the PP Pivot and OOD, leaving 7 ticks on the tail naked. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the fake spike, and then stopped out with a 5 tick loss. An activation time of :58 or :59 sec would have been ideal to catch the short move. After the 1st peak, it chopped sideways, struggling with the strong support of the PP Pivot, only able to garner another 6 ticks on a 2nd peak. Then it reversed back to the 100 SMA for 29 ticks 20 min later.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 6.26.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/26/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.9M
Actual: 0.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.12
1st Peak @ 94.41 – 1031 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 94.70 – 1032 (2 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.68 – 1043 (13 min)
144 ticks

Reversal to 94.79 – 1101 (31 min)
111 ticks

Extended Reversal to 95.60 – 1226 (116 min)
192 ticks

Notes: No change in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs, so the overall high supply and the gain in gas brought in the bears. We saw a short spike of 71 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the S1 Pivot and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot, followed by a pullback of 29 ticks that retreated to the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 94.96 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it drop like a rock to give you 40-50 ticks capturable on the :31 bar. After the pullback, it fell for a 2nd peak of 115 more ticks in the next 10 min, eclipsing the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 111 ticks in about 20 min, and another 80 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs. Very large movement for this report.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 6.19.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/19/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: 0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.76
1st Peak @ 98.37 – 1032 (2 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 98.71 – 1036 (6 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.26 – 1105 (35 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 98.65 – 1146 (76 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching small gain on the crude inventories, while gasoline saw a small gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs, so the overall high supply likely brought in the bears. We saw a short spike of 39 ticks in 2 min that eclipsed the PP Pivot by 12 ticks, followed by a quick reversal that retreated to the 100/50 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 98.65 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it chop between +/- 5 ticks. I decided to set the target for 98.58 and it filled easily on the :32 bar after it was able to overcome the support in the 98.60 area. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks, eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 30 min. Then it reversed for 39 ticks in about 40 min, reaching the 200 SMA.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/12/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.4M
Actual: 2.5M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.88
1st Peak @ 95.72 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.11 – 1031 (1 min)
-39 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.50 – 1054 (24 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 96.45 – 1124 (54 min)
95 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain on the crude inventories when a small draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs. We saw a short spike of 16 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the R1 Pivot, followed by a choppy reversal that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and hit the R2 Mid Pivot for 39 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 95.76 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 3 and 14 ticks in the red. The safe play in this situation would be to collapse the stop loss to about -7 ticks and look to exit as close to break even as possible. Otherwise, you would have been stopped for -15 ticks about 45 sec into the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it chopped lower to cross the 200 SMA for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 20 min, then it reversed for 95 ticks in 30 min to extend the HOD 15 ticks.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/5/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8M
Actual: -6.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.02
1st Peak @ 94.27 – 1031 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 94.10 – 1032 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.48 – 1032 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 93.78 – 1107 (37 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Large draw on the crude inventories when a much smaller draw was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories finally backed off of their record highs as refinery activity saw a sharp rise. Even with the large draw, the bigger picture still has a supply driven market and the long move was restrained. We saw a long spike of 25 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the HOD and quickly retreated, leaving 17 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 94.16 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen the large swings between +/- 10 ticks. If you played it out, the secondary ascent would have given you some nice profit of 20 + ticks. If you took a more conservative exit near breakeven, that is okay too. After the 1st peak, the 32 bar achieved a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks that held for several minutes, then it reversed for 70 ticks in 30 min, eclipsing the R1 Mid Pivot and the OOD.

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